The ECB left all three key policy rates unchanged in September 2025, with inflation projected to remain close to the 2% medium-term target and growth expectations slightly adjusted.

• The deposit facility rate was held at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.40%.

• Headline inflation is projected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, broadly unchanged from June’s outlook.

• Core inflation (ex-energy and food) is expected at 2.4% in 2025, easing to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

• GDP growth was revised up to 1.2% in 2025 (from 0.9% in June), while 2026 was lowered to 1.0%, and 2027 remained at 1.3%.

• The ECB reaffirmed its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, emphasizing flexibility and avoiding pre-commitment to a rate path.

• Balance sheet runoff continues as both the APP and PEPP portfolios decline, with no reinvestment of maturing securities.