US Personal Income and Outlays: July 2025

Personal income increased 0.4% MoM (vs 0.4% MoM expected) in July, with disposable personal income up 0.4% MoM as well.
- Personal consumption was up 0.5% MoM (vs 0.5% MoM expected), driven by higher spending on autos and financial services.
- Real PCE rose +0.3% MoM, with services spending up +$60.2 billion and goods spending up +$48.7 billion.
- In July, personal income growth was driven by higher wages and salaries (+0.6% MoM) and non-wage supplements to income (+0.5% MoM).
- Personal transfer receipts were flat on the month, and personal income from assets was only up 0.1% MoM.
- The personal saving rate fell to 4.4% in July, down from prior levels, with total personal saving at $985.6 billion.

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The PCE price index increased 0.2% MoM (vs 0.2% MoM expected) and remained up 2.6% YoY (vs 2.6% YoY expected) in July.
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Core PCE inflation was 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, both in line with expectations. The annual rate ticked up 0.1 ppts from June and was the highest since March.