The June growth figure pushed GDP growth up to 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of this year. Growth across the second quarter was mixed, with the April correction for brought-forward activity ahead of US tariffs providing a weak start which was followed by a recovery in services but continued contraction in production and construction sectors.

• We expect GDP to grow by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter – a slight upward revision from our early projection of 0.4 per cent last month. Despite this upward revision, elevated uncertainty among businesses and weak private consumption pose downside risks to this forecast. We also think that the Chancellor will have to tighten fiscal policy in the Autumn, and that speculation over such policy changes will weigh on economic activity in the coming months.
• “GDP growth was slightly higher than forecast, recording 0.4 per cent in June owing to stronger-than-expected growth in services and construction. The economy therefore grew by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter. Despite this positive surprise, we expect growth to remain subdued in the third quarter of this year as uncertainty over fiscal policy and international trade continues to weigh on economic activity. As outlined in our recent UK Economic Outlook, the Chancellor must build a substantial fiscal buffer in the Autumn Budget to avoid uncertainty plaguing growth into next year.”