Index of Consumer Sentiment: March 2025 (Preliminary)

The early reading of the UMich Index of Consumer Sentiment in March was down -10.5% MoM to 57.9, the lowest since November 2022 and below expectations of a drop to 63.1.

• The Current Economic Conditions index was down -3.3% MoM to 63.5, and the Index of Consumer Expectations was down -15.3% MoM to 54.2.
• Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024.
• Consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February.
• Despite their greater confidence following the election, Republicans posted a sizable -10% MoM decline in their expectations index in March.
• For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index declined an even steeper -12% MoM and -24% MoM, respectively.

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% last month to 4.9% in March, the highest reading since November 2022

• This marks three consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 ppts or more.
• 5-year-ahead inflation expectations increased 0.4 ppts to 3.9%, the highest since 1991.