Japan machinery orders rose 3.8% MoM in May 2025, rebounding after two months of declines, but the overall Q2 forecast still points to a -1.6% QoQ contraction.

• Core private-sector orders (ex-volatile) dipped -0.6% MoM (vs -1.5% MoM expected) in May after a sharp +13.0% gain in March and a -9.1% decline in April.
• Manufacturing orders fell -1.8% MoM, while non-manufacturing (ex-volatile) edged up 1.8% MoM.
• Government orders surged 25.2% MoM, reversing a -12.4% drop in April and -31.0% in March.
• Foreign orders fell -6.4% MoM following an 8.6% MoM rise in April.
• Core private-sector orders are forecast to decline -2.1% QoQ in Q2, signaling softness in domestic capital investment.