Inflation Expectations
Charts, tables, and context on inflation expectations.
Anchoring Dashboard
Compares each measure's latest reading against its historical reference mean. A z-score outside ±1σ is flagged as unanchored. Click a row to expand its chart.
| Indicator | Latest | Date | Ref. Mean | Z-Score | Status | |
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| 5Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.26% | 2026-07-06 | 1.93% | 0.62 | Anchored | |
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| 10Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.23% | 2026-07-06 | 2.11% | 0.35 | Anchored | |
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| UMich 1Y Inflation Exp. | 4.60% | 2026-06-01 | 3.59% | 0.62 | Anchored | |
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| UMich 5Y Inflation Exp. | 3.30% | 2026-06-01 | 3.59% | -0.22 | Anchored | |
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| NY Fed 1Y Inflation Exp. (Med) | 3.67% | 2026-06-01 | 3.03% | 1.43 | Outside 1σ | |
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| NY Fed 5Y Inflation Exp. (Med) | 3.00% | 2026-06-01 | 2.83% | 1.02 | Outside 1σ | |
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| Atlanta Fed Costs Exp. (Med) | 2.33% | 2026-06-01 | 2.06% | 0.92 | Anchored | |
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| Philly Fed Inflation Exp. (Med) | 3.50% | 2026-04-01 | 2.88% | 0.75 | Anchored | |
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| Philly Fed 10Y Inflation Exp. (Med) | 3.00% | 2026-04-01 | 2.95% | 0.13 | Anchored | |
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| Cleveland Fed SOFIE 1Y Inflation Exp. (Mean) | 3.70% | 2026-04-01 | 3.48% | 0.24 | Anchored | |
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| Cleveland Fed SOFIE 5Y Inflation Exp. (Mean) | 3.30% | 2025-10-01 | 3.73% | -0.55 | Anchored | |
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| Richmond Fed BAPI 1Y Inflation Exp. (All) | 4.05% | 2026-04-01 | 4.08% | -0.04 | Anchored | |
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| Richmond Fed BAPI 5Y Inflation Exp. (All) | 3.99% | 2026-04-01 | 3.89% | 0.28 | Anchored | |
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