MTS Insights

LinkUp Monthly NFP Forecast

Data Employment

LinkUp estimates that there was a decline of -25,000 in US nonfarm payroll employment in December, down significantly from the estimate of +45,000 in November.
- LinkUp observed a -5.6% MoM decline in new job postings in its data, and a -3.7% MoM decline in total job postings.
- The further decline in job postings in December suggests January employment growth might also be negative.
Source
LinkUp estimates that there was an increase of 45,000 in US nonfarm payroll employment in November, up from the estimate of -5,000 in October.
- LinkUp observed a -19.5% MoM decline in new job postings in its data, and a -7.5% MoM decline in total job postings.
- Based on the large decline in job postings in November, LinkUp expects that December nonfarm payroll employment growth will be negative.
Source
Source