HilltopSecurities Economic Commentary
Commentary
Macro
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- HilltopSecurities
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Publications
Lukewarm February CPI Expected to Heat up in March
Mar 11, 2026
Markets Rally When Trump Declares Victory is Near
Mar 09, 2026
February ISM Surveys Point to Expansion
Mar 04, 2026
Bond Yields Climb on Inflation Concerns
Mar 02, 2026
Lingering Producer Inflation Adds Market Jitters
Feb 27, 2026
VIDEO: Muni Minute - When Does the Fed Cut Again?
Feb 24, 2026
Q4 GDP: Weak Finish to a Good Year
Feb 20, 2026
Supreme Court Says No to Reciprocal Tariffs
Feb 20, 2026
January Fed Minutes Prove Uneventful
Feb 18, 2026
Bonds Rally as Core CPI Falls to a Five-Year Low
Feb 13, 2026
US Job Growth Accelerates in January
Feb 11, 2026
Private Sector Data Reinforce Labor Market Slump
Feb 05, 2026
Is the Other Kevin the Right Pick for Fed Chair?
Jan 30, 2026
Fed Holds Rates First Time in Six Months
Jan 28, 2026
Markets Rebound as President Trump Speaks in Davos and The Supreme Court Meets on Governor Cook
Jan 21, 2026
Mixed Employment Report to Keep Fed Squarely on Hold
Jan 09, 2026
ISM Surveys Indicate Manufacturing Slowed Further While Services Shot Higher in December
Jan 07, 2026
Economic Summary - Q4 2025
Jan 07, 2026
Fastest GDP Growth in Two Years Signals Fed Pause
Dec 23, 2025
Fed Cuts for the Third Straight Meeting
Dec 10, 2025
Recent Labor Weakness Supports December Cut
Dec 05, 2025
Mixed Employment Data Boosts Chances of December Cut
Nov 20, 2025
Oct Fed Minutes Offer Little New Information
Nov 19, 2025
Mixed Private Sector Data Unlikely to Reroute Fed
Nov 05, 2025
Fed Easing Now Certain as Consumer Inflation Eases
Oct 24, 2025
No Progress as the Shutdown Continues
Oct 16, 2025
Economic Summary - Q3 2025
Oct 07, 2025
Yields Lower as ADP Reports Negative Job Growth
Oct 01, 2025
GDP Revision and Durable Goods Point to a Firmer Q3
Sep 25, 2025
Fed Cuts Rates, Signals Shift Toward Neutral
Sep 17, 2025
Yields Decline as More Labor Market Cracks Emerge
Sep 03, 2025
Retail Sales Up in July, Boosted by E-Commerce Surge
Aug 15, 2025
Consumer Prices Still Not Reflecting Tariff Costs
Aug 12, 2025
Rate Cuts Near as Fed Dove Count Grows
Aug 08, 2025
Bond Yields Plunge as Employment Sags
Aug 01, 2025
Fed Holds Steady, but September's Still a Toss-up
Jul 30, 2025
Previewing Next Week's Fed Meeting
Jul 25, 2025
Housing Summer Slowdown Continues
Jul 24, 2025
Markets Rally as Consumers Remain Resilient
Jul 17, 2025
Will U.S. Housing Sail on the QE in 2026?
Jul 14, 2025
Economic Summary - Q2 2025
Jul 11, 2025
Unexpectedly Solid Labor Report Extends Fed Pause
Jul 03, 2025
Decline in Yields Halted by JOLTS
Jul 01, 2025
Markets Remain Upbeat Despite Softer Data
Jun 27, 2025
The FOMC Has Much to Consider
Jun 13, 2025
Consumer Inflation Eases Again in May
Jun 11, 2025
Economic Data Reflects Trade Impact
Jun 04, 2025
Housing Market Slows into Summer
May 30, 2025
Bonds Rally on Weaker Growth and Fed Patience
May 15, 2025
April Consumer Price Increases Prove Mild
May 13, 2025
Bond Yields Climb on Positive Trade News
May 12, 2025
Front-Running Buoys April ISM Surveys
May 06, 2025
Bond Yields Edge Higher on Solid Labor Report
May 02, 2025
Q1 GDP is Negative as Imports Surge
Apr 30, 2025
Little Trade Progress Signals Softer Growth
Apr 24, 2025
Americans Step Up Purchases Before Tariffs Hit
Apr 16, 2025
Problems Mount as Trade War Escalates
Apr 11, 2025
Economic Summary - Q1 2025
Apr 08, 2025
The Tariff Threat Becomes an Ugly Reality
Apr 03, 2025
Cracks Appear in U.S. Trade Leverage
Apr 01, 2025
Bond Yields Drop on Weakening Data
Mar 28, 2025
Post FOMC Rumblings
Mar 20, 2025
Fed Holds, but Markets Rally on QT Reduction
Mar 19, 2025
Consumers Continue to Struggle
Mar 17, 2025
Bond Market Shrugs Off Softer CPI Report
Mar 12, 2025
Early Q1 GDPNow Hints at (Still Unlikely) Recession
Mar 07, 2025
Few Surprises in a Mostly Dull February Labor Report
Mar 07, 2025
Solid ISM Services Steady Jittery Market
Mar 05, 2025
Tariff Threat Becomes Reality
Mar 04, 2025
Mild Inflation Data and Soft Spending Calm Markets
Feb 28, 2025
Focus on Housing
Feb 21, 2025
Markets Take Minutes in Stride
Feb 19, 2025
Spending Slowdown Signals Softer Q1 Growth
Feb 14, 2025
Markets Stumble on Unexpectedly Warm CPI Report
Feb 12, 2025
Service Managers Express Caution
Feb 05, 2025
Tensions Ease as Mexican Tariffs Postponed
Feb 03, 2025
Fed Pauses, Powell Sidesteps Political Questions
Jan 29, 2025
Consumers End Q4 on a Mostly Positive Note
Jan 16, 2025
Markets Cheer Cooler Core Inflation
Jan 15, 2025
Markets Sink as Employment Picture Brightens
Jan 10, 2025
Uneventful Fed Minutes Calm Markets
Jan 08, 2025
Economic Summary - Q4 2024
Jan 07, 2025
Markets Rally on Easing Price Pressures
Dec 20, 2024
Fed Cuts 25; Trims Forecast for 2025.
Dec 18, 2024
Big Ticket Autos Boost November Retail Sales
Dec 17, 2024
Higher Unemployment Increases Odds of December Cut
Dec 06, 2024
Cautious Fed Talk Hints at Pause
Dec 05, 2024
Mixed Data Provides Little Direction
Dec 04, 2024
Tariff Threats Override Fed Minutes
Nov 26, 2024
Consumers Power Through
Nov 15, 2024
Bond Market Ignores Rising Producer Prices
Nov 14, 2024
Bonds Rally as Consumer Inflation Matches Forecast
Nov 13, 2024
Fed Cuts 25, but Offers Few Clues on Future Policy
Nov 07, 2024
Consumer Spending Drives Solid Q3 GDP
Oct 30, 2024
Economic Summary - Q3 2024
Oct 08, 2024
Blowout Jobs Report Rewrites Weakness Story
Oct 04, 2024
Rise in Job Openings Takes Backseat to Striking Dockworkers and Escalating Geopolitical Conflict
Oct 01, 2024
Markets Balk as Powell Signals a More Patient Fed
Sep 30, 2024
Fed Goes Big
Sep 18, 2024
Service Sector Continues to Expand in August
Sep 05, 2024
Inflation Part II
Sep 04, 2024
Powell's Dovish Speech Sparks Rally to End the Week
Aug 23, 2024
Future Data Will Decide Fed Policy
Aug 20, 2024
Bond Yields Rise as Market Nerves Steady
Aug 07, 2024
Bond Yields Plunge as Job Market Sags
Aug 02, 2024
Rising Productivity, Lower Labor Costs and Factory Weakness Increase Rate Cut Probability
Aug 01, 2024
Markets Rally Despite a Measured Fed
Jul 31, 2024
Satisfactory PCE Maintains Market Rally
Jul 26, 2024
Bonds Rally Despite Higher Q2 GDP
Jul 25, 2024
June Consumer Spending Proves Unexpectedly Solid
Jul 16, 2024
Markets Ignore Warm PPI Report
Jul 12, 2024
Economic Summary - Q2 2024
Jul 08, 2024
June Unemployment Rises and Payroll Growth Moderates
Jul 05, 2024
Inflation Relief Nudges Yields Lower
Jun 28, 2024
Bond Yields Fall on Soft Retail Sales Report
Jun 18, 2024
Mild PPI Report Rekindles Bond Rally
Jun 13, 2024
Bonds Retreat as Fed Signals Patience
Jun 12, 2024
Markets Rally on May's Mild CPI Release
Jun 12, 2024
Yields Rise on Unexpected Payroll Surge
Jun 07, 2024
Big Decline in Job Openings Extends Bond Rally
Jun 04, 2024
Factory Manager Survey Signals Further Weakness
Jun 03, 2024
Yields Slightly Lower on Market Friendly Data
May 30, 2024
Signs of Improved Outlook Unnerve Markets
May 23, 2024
Favorable Revisions Cushion Otherwise Warm PPI
May 14, 2024
Signs of Labor Market Softness Spark Market Rally
May 03, 2024
Markets Rally on Powell's Confidence
May 01, 2024
Yields Climb as Q1 Employment Costs Exceed Forecasts
Apr 30, 2024
Upcoming Fed Meeting Should be Mercifully Dull
Apr 26, 2024
Rising Mortgage Rates Crimp Home Sales
Apr 19, 2024
Stronger Q1 Spending Complicates Fed Policy
Apr 15, 2024
Markets Balk as Consumer Inflation Refuses to Cool
Apr 10, 2024
Economic Summary - Q1 2024
Apr 09, 2024
Bonds Fade on March Labor Strength
Apr 05, 2024
ISM Service Survey Shows Unexpected Softening
Apr 03, 2024
Bond Yields Rise on Signs of Factory Improvement
Apr 01, 2024
Markets Rally on Fed Confidence
Mar 20, 2024
Another Warm CPI Report Likely to Alter Fed Outlook
Mar 12, 2024
Markets Rally on Mixed February Labor Report
Mar 08, 2024
Powell's Congressional Testimony Is Mostly a Yawner
Mar 06, 2024
Bond Yields Retreat on Signs of Economic Softening
Mar 06, 2024
Fed Talk and Factory Weakness Nudge Yields Lower
Mar 01, 2024
Markets Rally on Mixed Data
Feb 29, 2024
Winter Puts a Chill on January Spending
Feb 15, 2024
Yields Surge Higher on Blowout Jobs Report
Feb 02, 2024
Uncertainty and Mixed Data Support a Patient Fed
Jan 26, 2024
Fourth Quarter GDP Handily Beats Forecasts
Jan 25, 2024
Mixed Data Feeds Market Volatility
Jan 19, 2024
Yields Climb on Surprisingly Brisk Consumer Spending
Jan 17, 2024
Warmer CPI Report Reduces Odds of March Rate Cut
Jan 11, 2024
Economic Summary - Q4 2023
Jan 05, 2024
Weak ISM Report Reverses Employment Report Selloff
Jan 05, 2024
Fed Minutes Appear More Hawkish than Powell
Jan 03, 2024
Markets Roar as the Fed Teases Rate Cuts
Dec 13, 2023
Stubborn Shelter Costs Keep CPI Elevated
Dec 12, 2023
Bonds Rally on Fewer Job Openings
Dec 05, 2023
Minutes from Nov FOMC Meeting Reveal Nothing New
Nov 21, 2023
Yields Plummet As Inflation Eases
Nov 14, 2023
Markets Calm after Yesterday's Stumble
Nov 10, 2023
Strong Worker Productivity adds to Bond Rally
Nov 02, 2023
Consumers Drive Q3 GDP Growth
Oct 26, 2023
Powell Offers Few Clues and Little Clarity
Oct 19, 2023
Rising Gas and Shelter Costs Pressure September CPI
Oct 12, 2023
Economic Summary - Q3 2023
Oct 06, 2023
Building the Case for Another Hike
Oct 03, 2023
Odds and Implications of a Government Shutdown
Sep 28, 2023
Transformative Technology and its Economic Impact
Sep 06, 2023
August Labor Report Supports Fed Pause in September
Sep 01, 2023
Bond Yields Lower on Slightly Weaker Data
Aug 30, 2023