US GDP

Data GDP

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source Link: https://www.bea.gov/
Frequency: Quarterly
Next Release(s): September 25th, 2025 8:30 AM

Latest Updates

US real GDP grew at an annualized rate of +3.3% in Q2 2025, revised up from +3.0% in the advance estimate, following a -0.5% contraction in Q1.
- The upward revision reflected stronger investment and consumer spending, partly offset by weaker government spending and higher imports.
- Personal consumption growth was 1.6% at a SAAR in the second estimate, revised up from 1.4%.
- The decline in private investment was revised up from -15.6% in the 1st estimate to -13.8%.
- Federal government consumption growth was the weakest since 2022 Q1 at -8.5% as nondefense spending growth was the weakest since Q2 2021 at -14.3%.
- Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose +1.9% (revised up +0.7 ppts), showing firmer underlying private demand.
- The gross domestic purchases price index increased +1.8% (revised down -0.1 ppt), while the PCE price index rose +2.0% (also revised down -0.1 ppts) and core PCE held steady at +2.5%.
- Real gross domestic income (GDI) jumped +4.8% after just +0.2% in Q1, bringing the average of GDP and GDI to +4.0%.
- Corporate profits rebounded +$65.5 billion in Q2, reversing part of the -$90.6 billion decline in Q1. The increase in profits was driven by a $59.1 billion increase in the nonfinancial sector.
Source
US GDP grew at a 3.0% SAAR in Q2 2025, rebounding from a -0.5% contraction in Q1, driven by stronger consumption and a sharp drop in imports.
- Personal consumption expenditures rose +1.4% in Q2 (vs +0.5% in Q1), with durable goods up +3.7% and services up +1.1%.
- Gross private domestic investment fell -15.6% (vs +23.8% in Q1), as equipment spending collapsed and inventories declined.
- Net exports added to growth as imports plunged -30.3%, driven by a -35.3% drop in goods, while exports fell -1.8%.
- Government spending rebounded +0.4% after a -0.6% decline in Q1, as state and local outlays rose +3.0%.
- Final sales to domestic purchasers grew +1.2%, slowing from +1.9% in Q1, while final sales to private domestic purchasers rose +1.2% (vs +1.9%).
Source
GDP Growth

Economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 was revised down significantly in the third and final estimate released today. After the second estimate, real GDP growth was reported at -0.2%, up slightly from -0.3% in the advance estimate. The upgrade has been reversed and more as the final estimate of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 landed at -0.5% as the contributions of consumption, investment, and net exports were all revised down.
- Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth was revised down from an SAAR of 1.2% in the second estimate to just 0.5% in the final estimate which means that consumption contributed just 0.31 ppts to headline GDP growth, the lowest since consumer spending saw a massive contraction during the pandemic, and before that, since Q2 2011. The downward revision in spending was entirely in expenditures on services which grew at a rate of just 0.6% as opposed to the 1.7% growth in the second estimate.
- Private domestic investment growth was still reported as strong, at 23.8%, but slightly weaker than the last estimate of 24.4%. Residential investment appears to have contracted more than previously thought, declining at a SAAR of -1.3%, down from the -0.6% in the 2nd estimate. The inventory component of growth was also revised in the final estimate, down -5 bps to 2.59 ppts. Compared to consumption, the revisions in investment were not as significant.
- Offsetting some of the negative revisions was an upward shift in the estimate of the contribution from net exports. The second estimate found it at -4.90 ppts with a surge in imports dragging growth down by -5.16 ppts, offset by exports contributing 0.26 ppts. In the final estimate, the BEA found that trade activity was lower overall but in a way that was favorable to GDP growth. The net exports contribution has landed at -4.61 ppts now with exports revised down to 0.04 ppts but imports revised up to -4.66 ppts.
The obvious focus of the GDP revisions is on the newfound weakness in personal consumption which will cause many to reassess their views of the strength of the US economy in Q1 2025. Consider the change to private domestic final purchases (PDFP), a measure that excludes net exports which Fed Chair Powell has referred to in supporting his (and the Fed’s) view that the economy was still solid in Q1. The second estimate had PDFP growth at 2.5% (already revised down from the advance estimate of 3.0%), but that has now been revised down to just 1.9% in the final estimate, the first time this measure fell below 2% since Q4 2022.

The fact that this downward revision was rooted in weak services spending suggests that softer growth had little to do with tariffs and more to do with a decline in consumer sentiment and financial health. In fact, when looking at GDP contributions by industry, the discretionary services segments stick out as having the largest downward revisions: recreation services downgraded -18 bps to -0.14 ppts, food services & accommodations downgraded -5 bps to -0.09 ppts, transportation services downgrade -9 bps to -0.03 ppts. These three industries accounted for about 65% of the downward revision in the contribution from services consumption growth.

PCE Inflation

While growth was revised down, the measures of prices in the GDP report were revised up. Both the headline and core PCE inflation SAAR were revised up 0.1 ppts to 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively. However, the YoY rates for both data points were unchanged at 2.5% YoY and 2.8% YoY. The changes in the price data were much less significant than the growth revisions, and the more important update on price data will come tomorrow when the May personal income and outlay reports come out. Regardless, it is not good news to see price data revised up, even if slightly, in the same report as a significant downward adjustment in consumption. This only further complicates the Fed’s task of navigating upside risks to inflation coinciding with downside risks to employment.

Here are some other highlights from the final GDP estimate:
- While gross domestic product growth was revised down, the estimate of gross national income (GNI) was revised up, from a -0.2% decline in the second estimate to an increase of 0.2% in the final estimate. This is odd because GDP and GNI growth are meant to track each other pretty closely, so a divergence in a revised report like this raises some eyebrows. One reason for a deviation could be that foreign incomes increased relative to domestic incomes. This could be a suggestion that the introduction of tariffs had an immediate negative impact on domestic profits while foreign operations fared better.
- The final estimate of growth includes a breakdown by industry. The BEA found that goods sector real value added dropped at an SAAR of -2.8% while the decline in services was just -0.3%. However, the latter was boosted by two industries: information (0.56 ppts GDP contribution) and real estate (0.66 ppts GDP contribution). Value added from government increased at a SAAR of 2.0% with all of that coming from state and local governments. The BEA found that the federal government made no contribution to GDP in Q1 2025.
Source
The 2nd estimate of Q1 2025 US GDP growth is -0.2%, revised up from -0.3% in the initial estimate.
- Real final sales to private domestic purchasers saw a significant downward revision of -0.5 ppts to 2.5% as household consumption was revised down.
- Personal consumption growth was revised down from an SAAR of 1.8% in the first estimate to 1.2%. Both goods and services consumption were revised lower, by -0.4 ppts to 0.1% and -0.7 ppts to 1.7%, respectively.
- Gross private domestic investment growth was revised up from 21.9% to an even stronger 24.4%.
- The contribution of PCE fell -41 bps to 0.80 ppts but was offset by an upward revision in the inventory contribution of 39 bps to 2.64 ppts.
- The annual increases in the GDP price index and the core PCE price index were both revised down by -0.1 ppts to 3.3% YoY and 3.4% YoY.
- Gross domestic income is estimated to have fallen -0.2% after a 5.2% gain in Q4 2024.
- Corporate profits fell -$118.1 billion in Q1 2025 following a $204.7 billion increase in Q4 2024.
Source
US GDP growth for Q1 2025 was reported this morning, and the report was worse than expected. The first quarter contraction in 2025 is the first negative quarter of GDP growth since Q1 2022. What was expected was a report that was heavily skewed by trade data as net exports was the sole reason for the decline in GDP.

GDP Growth

US GDP saw a slight decline in Q1 2025, falling at a -0.3% seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), which was worse than the consensus expectations of an increase at a slight 0.3% SAAR. Not only is this the weakest quarterly growth rate in three years, but it is also the first contraction since the -1.0% SAAR decline in Q1 2022. On a more positive note, the advance estimate was ahead of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q1 2025 growth of -2.7% (last updated on April 29th, 2025) and also ahead of the gold-adjusted nowcast of -1.5%. For those who were following the whipsaws in the nowcast, the BEA’s GDP report might be somewhat of a positive surprise.

The key segment dragging down GDP growth in the first quarter was the net exports component. A large increase in imports (41.3% SAAR) in Q1 offset a smaller gain in exports (1.8% SAAR), which resulted in a -4.83 ppts contribution from net exports to headline GDP growth. This was the largest negative contribution from net exports since GDP records began in 1947. This is not really a surprise as it is consistent with the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of the net exports component, and it reflects the effect of companies pulling forward imports to a massive degree ahead of the implementation of Trump’s tariff policies.

The large increase in imports also led to an increase in inventories that partially offset the negative net exports contribution. In Q1 2025, the contribution from private inventories was 2.25 ppts, the largest since firms built up inventories during the COVID supply chain crunch. When excluding both the net exports and the inventory component, GDP growth comes out to around 2.3% as a result of an increase in consumption and investment. This number is consistent with the growth in final sales to domestic purchasers, which grew at a 2.3% SAAR, and reflects solid domestic demand in the first quarter.

Domestic Demand

Details on the subsegments within domestic demand:
- Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 1.8% SAAR in the first quarter, the weakest since Q2 2023 but a solid increase nonetheless. Consumption was driven by a strong March where real PCE increased 0.7% MoM after a decline of -0.4% MoM in January and a small 0.1% MoM increase in February. The increase in March was especially driven by a surge in spending on autos as consumers pulled forward car purchases ahead of auto tariffs. In the final month of Q1, durable goods spending jumped 3.2% MoM including $4.7 billion spend on motor vehicles and parts.
- Fixed investment was another strong source of GDP growth as it increased at a SAAR of 7.8% and contributed 1.34 ppts to top line GDP growth. This included an increase at a SAAR of 9.8% in nonresidential investment as equipment investment surged, also likely related to companies pulling forward spending on machinery and tools ahead of tariffs. Residential investment was much weaker at just 1.3%.
- The final piece of domestic demand is the government component which contracted for the first time since Q2 2022. Government consumption declined at a SAAR rate of -1.4% with federal consumption down -5.1% and state & local spending marginally up 0.8%. The contraction was a small piece of the GDP puzzle, however, as the contribution to top line GDP growth was just -0.25 ppts. Nevertheless, the Trump administration, through DOGE, has made it clear that it intends to keep drawing down government expenditures over the next few years, so the government components will likely continue to weigh on growth for some time.
So while the headline growth figure pointed to a contraction, the flurry of activity caused by the impending tariff policy resulted in strong domestic economic activity in Q1 2025. The question then becomes, will we see the same domestic activity in the second quarter of this year? Reports on consumer sentiment and business outlooks suggest that this will not be the case unless Trump’s trade policies are reversed. Specifically, it is possible that we see consumption (C) and investment (I), including the inventory contribution, turn negative in Q2 2025 even if the net exports component (X) bounces back on a decline in imports. If that is the case, we could very well see a recession materialize.
Source
The third estimate of US GDP in Q4 2024 sees two key revisions:
- Real GDP growth revised up 0.1 ppt to 2.4%.
- Core PCE inflation (quarterly SAAR rate) revised down -0.1 ppt to 2.6%.
- Gross domestic purchases price index (quarterly SAAR rate) revised down -0.1 ppt to 2.2%.
Other key results:
- Compared to Q3 2024, the deceleration in real GDP in Q4 2024 primarily reflected downturns in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned down.
- From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected an increase of 2.3% in real value added for private goods-producing industries, an increase of 2.4% for private services-producing industries, and an increase of 2.7% for government.
- Real gross output increased 1.7% in Q4 2024, reflecting an increase of 0.3% for private goods-producing industries, an increase of 2.0% for private services-producing industries, and an increase of 3.1% for government.
- Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $204.7 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $15.0 billion in the third quarter.
Source
The 2nd estimates of Q4 2024 and full year 2024 GDP growth were unchanged at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively.
- Real GDP was revised up by less than 0.1 ppt from the advance estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment.
- However, both PCE and core PCE inflation were revised up by 0.1 ppts to 2.4% and by 0.2 ppts to 2.7% respectively.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.3% in Q4 2024 and 2.4% in 2024, both revised up 0.1 ppt.
Source
US real GDP growth was 2.3% in Q4 2024, down from 3.1% in Q3 2024 and below the forecast of 2.6%. Personal consumption boomed, growing at an annual pace of 4.2%, the fastest growth since Q1 2023 with goods spending growth at 6.6% and services spending growth at 3.1%.

Offsetting the increase in consumption was a -5.6% decline in gross private domestic investment, the first decline since Q1 2023. Nonresidential investment fell at a -0.6% annual rate with equipment investment falling the most at -7.8%. Residential investment bounced back after two quarters of contraction, increasing at a 5.3% rate. Government consumption growth slowed but was still positive at 2.5%.

The GDP Price Index came in cooler than expected at a 2.2% annual rate, below expectations of a 2.5% annual rate, in Q4 2024. Core PCE prices expanded at a 2.5% annual rate, a slight acceleration from the 2.2% rate in Q3 2024. In general, inflationary pressures were just above the Fed’s target, slightly accelerating from the weaker pressures in Q3.

Source
The final estimate of Q3 2024 GDP features a sizeable 0.3 ppt upward revision in Real GDP growth to 3.1%. This came from upward revisions in exports and consumer spendings which were partly offset by a downward revision in inventory investment and an upward revision in imports. Additionally, the BEA increased its estimate of the change in core PCE prices from 2.1% back to 2.2% (where it was in the advance estimate).

GDP by industry shows strong contributions by the services sector to growth. In particular, strong retail trade growth added 1.1 ppts to overall real GDP growth. Services GDP increased 3.6% while goods GDP increased 1.5%. The government added 0.23 ppts to real GDP growth and its GDP was up 2.1%. Some minor revisions include a slight upward revision in personal income and small downward revisions in corporate profits.

Source

US GDP

Latest Updates

PCE Inflation

GDP Growth

Domestic Demand