US Advance Economic Indicators

Data Macro

Source: Census Bureau
Source Link: https://www.census.gov/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): August 29th, 2025 8:30 AM

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The US trade deficit dropped -10.8% MoM in June to $86.0 billion (vs $98.4 billion expected), the smallest deficit since August 2023.
- Consumer goods imports saw the largest decline, dropping -12.4% MoM, followed by industrial supplies, down -5.5% MoM.
- Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY in June 2025, while retail inventories increased 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY.
- Durable goods wholesale inventories rose 0.1% MoM, while nondurable goods inventories rose 0.3% MoM and 3.8% YoY.
- Retail inventories excluding autos were unchanged MoM but up 4.2% YoY.
- Motor vehicle and parts dealer inventories rose 0.9% MoM but remained down -1.0% YoY.
The U.S. advance goods trade deficit widened to $96.6 billion (vs $88.5 billion expected) in May, up 11.1% MoM, after the sharp decline in imports in April.
- Goods exports fell -5.2% MoM but were still up 6.2% YoY while goods imports were unchanged MoM and up 2.8% YoY.
- Wholesale inventories dropped -0.3% MoM with durable goods inventories falling -0.8% MoM.
- Retail inventories increased 0.3% MoM and are up 3.2% YoY with auto inventories rising 0.6% MoM to a level similar to a year ago. Inventories (ex-autos) increased 0.2% MoM and 4.7% YoY.
The U.S. advance goods trade deficit narrowed sharply to $87.6 billion in April, down -46.0% MoM from $162.3 billion in March, driven by a steep drop in imports.
- Goods exports increased 3.4% MoM and 9.6% YoY, while goods imports normalized, dropping -19.8% MoM (but were still up 2.6% YoY).
- Wholesale inventories were unchanged MoM at $906.9 billion, up 2.1% YoY.
- Retail inventories fell -0.1% MoM to $803.5 billion, but were up 3.5% YoY.
The advance estimate of the US goods trade deficit for March is $162.0 billion, an increase of 9.6% MoM and a huge miss from expectations that the deficit would fall to $146.0 billion.
- While exports increased 1.2% MoM and 6.8% YoY, there was a 5.0% MoM and 30.8% YoY increase in imports led by consumer goods imports up 27.5% MoM and 55.5% YoY.
- Wholesale inventories increased 0.5% MoM in March, building on the 0.5% MoM increase in February.
- Retail inventories were down -0.1% MoM as motor vehicle inventories fell -1.1% MoM and non-motor vehicle retail inventories grew 0.4% MoM.
The US goods trade deficit fell -4.9% MoM to $147.9 billion, above expectations of the deficit falling to $134.5 billion.
- Exports increased 4.1% MoM drive by vehicle exports up 12.7% MoM.
- Imports fell a much smaller -0.2% MoM with the largest decline in industrial supplies (-4.9% MoM).
- Wholesale inventories were up 0.3% MoM and 1.1% YoY.
- Retail inventories were up 0.1% MoM and 4.6% YoY.
The US goods trade deficit surged 25.6% MoM to $153.3 billion in January, well above expectations of a deficit of $114.7 billion.
- Exports increased 2.0% MoM and 1.8% YoY including a 10.9% MoM increase in consumer goods exports.
- Imports surged 11.9% MoM and were up 25.5% YoY as industrial supplies imports were up 32.7% MoM.
- As imports surged, so did wholesale inventories which grew 0.7% MoM after a -0.4% MoM drop in the month before.
- Retail inventories fell -0.1% MoM, on the other hand, including a -1.1% MoM drop in motor vehicle inventories.
Advance economic data indicated that the goods trade deficit jumped 18.0% MoM in December to $122.1 billion. This was caused by a sharp -4.5% MoM decline in exports, and a 3.9% MoM increase in imports. On an annual basis, imports were up 12.4% YoY which suggests there was a surge in imports ahead of Trump tariffs in 2025.

Inventories fell across both the wholesale and retail segments. Wholesale inventories specifically were down -0.5% MoM and -0.1% YoY. Retail inventories fell -0.3% MoM as motor vehicle & parts inventories saw a sharp -1.2% MoM decline, though they are still 11.4% above a year ago.
The US trade deficit increased by 4.7% MoM in November as a 4.5% MoM increase in imports slightly outpaced a 4.4% MoM increase in exports. Food and industrial supply imports lead the gains there.

Wholesale inventories fell -0.2% MoM, below an expected increase of 0.2% MoM. On the other hand, retail inventories increased 0.3% MoM and were up 7.2% YoY with motor vehicle inventories up 15.3% YoY. Non-auto inventories, however, did see a sizeable 0.6% MoM increase in November.