UMich Index of Consumer Sentiment

Data Sentiment

Source: University of Michigan
Source Link: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
Frequency: Semi-Monthly
Next Release(s): December 5th, 2025 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

The final estimate of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 51.0 (vs 50.3 preliminary) in November 2025 (-4.9% MoM, -29.0% YoY), reflecting continued strain from high prices and weakening household finances.
- The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped to 51.1 (vs 52.3 preliminary), down -12.8% MoM and -20.0% YoY, showing a sharp deterioration in assessments of personal finances and buying conditions for durable goods.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations edged up to 51.0 (vs 49.0 preliminary), rising +1.4% MoM but still down -33.7% YoY, indicating modest improvement in longer-term outlooks despite weak current conditions.
- Sentiment improved slightly after the federal shutdown ended, but overall confidence remained depressed as consumers remained frustrated by persistent price pressures.
- Households with the largest stock holdings saw a decline in sentiment late in the month as equity markets weakened, reversing gains seen in the preliminary reading.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5% (from 4.6%), marking a third consecutive monthly decline, though still above the 3.3% level observed in January.
- Long-run inflation expectations fell to 3.4% (from 3.9%), modestly higher than January’s 3.2% but signaling some improvement in consumers’ view of long-term inflation trends.
National Estimates Continue to Align With Views of Independents

November 2025 Update: Current versus Pre-Pandemic Long-Run Inflation Expectations
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell -6.2% MoM to 50.3 in November 2025 (-29.9% YoY), marking a broad pullback as the prolonged government shutdown weighed on household outlooks.
- The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped -10.8% MoM to 52.3 (-18.2% YoY), reflecting a 17% decline in assessments of personal finances.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased -2.6% MoM to 49.0 (-36.3% YoY), as year-ahead business expectations weakened by 11%.
- The decline in sentiment was widespread across age, income, and political groups, though the top third of stockholders saw sentiment rise +11%, supported by equity market strength.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.7% (from 4.6%), while long-run expectations fell to 3.6% (from 3.9%), both remaining below peaks from earlier in 2025.
- The report noted that interviews concluded before the November elections, suggesting results do not yet capture potential post-election sentiment shifts.
The UMich Index of Consumer Sentiment fell -2.7% MoM to 53.6 in October 2025, according to the final data, and was down -24.0% YoY, reflecting ongoing consumer caution amid high prices and persistent inflation concerns.
- The headline index slipped from 55.1 in September to 53.6, remaining near multi-month lows as confidence weakened among middle-aged and older consumers.
- The Current Economic Conditions index declined -3.0% MoM to 58.6 and -9.7% YoY, indicating modest deterioration in assessments of personal finances and buying conditions.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations eased -2.7% MoM to 50.3 and was down sharply (-32.1%) from October 2024, underscoring persistent pessimism about the economic outlook.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 4.6% (from 4.7%), while long-run expectations rose slightly to 3.9% (from 3.7%), remaining below April’s peak.
- Inflation and high prices continued to dominate consumer concerns, though few respondents linked the ongoing government shutdown to economic conditions.
U.S. consumer sentiment was virtually unchanged in October 2025 at 55.0 (-0.2% MoM; -22.0% YoY), reflecting steady but subdued confidence as households continued to face high prices and softening job prospects.
- The Index of Consumer Sentiment held nearly flat at 55.0, with modest gains in views on current finances and year-ahead business conditions offset by weaker expectations for personal finances and buying conditions for durables.
- The Current Economic Conditions index rose +1.0% MoM to 61.0 but remained -6.0% lower YoY, suggesting limited improvement in perceptions of near-term financial and purchasing conditions.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations fell -1.0% MoM to 51.2, marking a -30.9% YoY decline and signaling continued pessimism about future economic conditions.
- Consumers reported few changes in their overall economic outlook, with sentiment largely unchanged despite the ongoing federal government shutdown.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 4.6% (from 4.7% in September), while long-run expectations remained steady at 3.7%, both midrange between readings from a year ago and the highs seen earlier in 2025.
The final September reading of the UMich Index of Consumer Sentiment fell -5.3% MoM and -21.6% YoY to 55.1, below the preliminary reading of 55.4, reflecting broad-based declines in both current conditions and future expectations.
- The Current Economic Conditions index eased to 60.4 (-2.1% MoM; -5.3% YoY), below the preliminary reading of 61.2, as households reported weaker assessments of personal finances.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations fell more sharply to 51.7 (-7.5% MoM; -30.6% YoY), mostly in line with the preliminary reading of 51.8, signaling heightened concerns over labor markets and business conditions.
- Sentiment among consumers with larger stock holdings held steady, while those with smaller or no holdings reported declines.
- Year-ahead expectations edged down to 4.7%, down from 4.8% last month and below the 4.8% preliminary reading
- Long-run 5-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.7%, up from from 3.5%, marking the second consecutive monthly increase, but the final value was down from the preliminary reading of 3.9%.
- High prices remained a central concern, with 44% of respondents spontaneously citing price pressures as eroding their personal finances, the highest share in a year.
U.S. consumer sentiment fell -4.8% MoM and -21.0% YoY in September 2025, reflecting broad-based weakening in economic perceptions, though levels remain above April–May lows.
- The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 55.4, down from 58.2 in August and 70.1 a year earlier, with the drop concentrated among lower- and middle-income households.
- The Current Economic Conditions index eased to 61.2 (-0.8% MoM; -3.3% YoY), with consumers reporting weaker current and expected personal finances (both down about -8%).
- The Index of Consumer Expectations dropped sharply to 51.8 (-7.3% MoM; -30.4% YoY), signaling rising concerns about future business conditions, labor markets, and inflation.
- Buying conditions for durable goods improved modestly, but all other major index components posted declines.
- Trade policy remained a key concern, with around 60% of respondents mentioning tariffs unprompted.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 4.8%, while long-run expectations ticked up to 3.9% from 3.5% in August, still well below April’s 4.4% reading.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell -5.7% MoM to 58.2 (vs 58.6 preliminary estimate) in the final August 2025 reading, though it remains about +11% above April–May levels but still -10% or more below readings from 6 and 12 months ago.
- The Current Economic Conditions index dropped -9.3% MoM to 61.7, up from the preliminary reading of 60.9.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations fell -3.1% MoM to 55.9, down from the preliminary reading of 57.2 and down -22.5% YoY.
- Buying conditions for durable goods fell to their lowest in a year, reflecting stronger price concerns.
- Current personal finances declined -7% MoM, also due to heightened worries about high prices.
- Expectations for business conditions and labor markets weakened further in August.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.8% (from 4.5% in July), with gains across most demographic groups.
- Long-run inflation expectations edged up to 3.5% (from 3.4%), ending a recent easing trend but still below spring highs.
US consumer sentiment fell -5.0% MoM and -13.7% YoY in August 2025 to 58.6, marking the first decline in four months as inflation concerns intensified.
- The Index of Current Economic Conditions dropped -10.4% MoM to 60.9 and was down -0.7% YoY, with buying conditions for durables hitting a one-year low.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations edged down -0.9% MoM to 57.2, a -20.7% YoY drop, as inflation and unemployment expectations worsened.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.9% (from 4.5% in July), ending a two-month decline.
- Long-run inflation expectations increased to 3.9% (from 3.4% in July), breaking a three-month easing trend but still below April–May peaks.
The final reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 61.7 in July 2025, up +1.6% MoM but still down -7.1% YoY.
- The Current Economic Conditions index rose +4.9% MoM and +8.5% YoY to 68.0, its highest since February 2025.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations slipped -0.7% MoM and is down -16.1% YoY to 57.7, marking a continued drag on overall sentiment.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.5% (revised up from early estimate of 4.4%) from 5.0% in June, the lowest since February but still above post-election lows.
- Long-run inflation expectations declined to 3.4% (revised down from early estimate of 3.6%), the lowest since January and down for a third straight month.
Consumer sentiment inched up +1.8% MoM to 61.8 in July 2025, its highest in five months, but remains down -6.9% YoY and well below historical norms.
- The Index of Current Economic Conditions rose +3.1% MoM to 66.8 (+6.5% YoY), while the Index of Consumer Expectations increased +0.9% MoM to 58.6 but remains down -14.8% YoY.
- Despite the modest rebound, sentiment is still 16% below its December 2024 level, with ongoing inflation and trade policy concerns weighing on consumer views.
Year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 4.4%, from 5.0% in June and 6.6% in May, the lowest since February 2025.
- Long-run (5-year) inflation expectations also fell to 3.6% in July, down from 4.0% in June and 4.2% in May.
The final reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment jumped to 60.7 in June 2025, up +16.3% MoM but down -11.0% YoY, marking the first monthly improvement in six months.
- The Current Economic Conditions index rose +10.0% MoM to 64.8, though still down -1.7% YoY.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations climbed +21.3% MoM to 58.1, but remains down -16.5% YoY.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations fell sharply to 5.0% from 6.6% in May, while long-run expectations eased to 4.0% from 4.2%.
- Despite the rebound, sentiment is still roughly 18% below its December 2024 post-election level and reflects persistent concerns about inflation and tariffs.
Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 5.0% in the final June reading, down from 6.6% in May and below the early reading of 5.1%.
- Long run inflation expectations eased to 4.0%, down from 4.2% in May and 4.1% in the early reading.
- Both readings are the lowest since February 2025 when tariff announcements began.
The UMich preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 60.5 in June 2025, up 15.9% MoM but still down -11.3% YoY, marking the first increase in six months.
- The Current Economic Conditions index increased +8.1% MoM to 63.7, though down -3.3% YoY.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations rose sharply by +21.9% MoM to 58.4, but remains down -16.1% YoY.
- Sentiment gains were broad-based across demographics and political affiliation, driven by easing concerns over tariffs and short- and long-run business conditions.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 5.1% (from 6.6%), and long-run expectations edged down to 4.1%, both now at 3-month lows.