UMich Index of Consumer Sentiment

Data Sentiment

Source: University of Michigan
Source Link: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
Frequency: Semi-Monthly
Next Release(s): August 29th, 2025 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

US consumer sentiment fell -5.0% MoM and -13.7% YoY in August 2025 to 58.6, marking the first decline in four months as inflation concerns intensified.
- The Index of Current Economic Conditions dropped -10.4% MoM to 60.9 and was down -0.7% YoY, with buying conditions for durables hitting a one-year low.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations edged down -0.9% MoM to 57.2, a -20.7% YoY drop, as inflation and unemployment expectations worsened.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.9% (from 4.5% in July), ending a two-month decline.
- Long-run inflation expectations increased to 3.9% (from 3.4% in July), breaking a three-month easing trend but still below April–May peaks.
The final reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 61.7 in July 2025, up +1.6% MoM but still down -7.1% YoY.
- The Current Economic Conditions index rose +4.9% MoM and +8.5% YoY to 68.0, its highest since February 2025.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations slipped -0.7% MoM and is down -16.1% YoY to 57.7, marking a continued drag on overall sentiment.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.5% (revised up from early estimate of 4.4%) from 5.0% in June, the lowest since February but still above post-election lows.
- Long-run inflation expectations declined to 3.4% (revised down from early estimate of 3.6%), the lowest since January and down for a third straight month.
Consumer sentiment inched up +1.8% MoM to 61.8 in July 2025, its highest in five months, but remains down -6.9% YoY and well below historical norms.
- The Index of Current Economic Conditions rose +3.1% MoM to 66.8 (+6.5% YoY), while the Index of Consumer Expectations increased +0.9% MoM to 58.6 but remains down -14.8% YoY.
- Despite the modest rebound, sentiment is still 16% below its December 2024 level, with ongoing inflation and trade policy concerns weighing on consumer views.
Year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 4.4%, from 5.0% in June and 6.6% in May, the lowest since February 2025.
- Long-run (5-year) inflation expectations also fell to 3.6% in July, down from 4.0% in June and 4.2% in May.
The final reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment jumped to 60.7 in June 2025, up +16.3% MoM but down -11.0% YoY, marking the first monthly improvement in six months.
- The Current Economic Conditions index rose +10.0% MoM to 64.8, though still down -1.7% YoY.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations climbed +21.3% MoM to 58.1, but remains down -16.5% YoY.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations fell sharply to 5.0% from 6.6% in May, while long-run expectations eased to 4.0% from 4.2%.
- Despite the rebound, sentiment is still roughly 18% below its December 2024 post-election level and reflects persistent concerns about inflation and tariffs.
Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 5.0% in the final June reading, down from 6.6% in May and below the early reading of 5.1%.
- Long run inflation expectations eased to 4.0%, down from 4.2% in May and 4.1% in the early reading.
- Both readings are the lowest since February 2025 when tariff announcements began.
The UMich preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 60.5 in June 2025, up 15.9% MoM but still down -11.3% YoY, marking the first increase in six months.
- The Current Economic Conditions index increased +8.1% MoM to 63.7, though down -3.3% YoY.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations rose sharply by +21.9% MoM to 58.4, but remains down -16.1% YoY.
- Sentiment gains were broad-based across demographics and political affiliation, driven by easing concerns over tariffs and short- and long-run business conditions.
- Year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 5.1% (from 6.6%), and long-run expectations edged down to 4.1%, both now at 3-month lows.
The final May reading of the UMich Index of Consumer Sentiment held steady at 52.2 in May, unchanged over the month but down -24.5% YoY, ending a four-month streak of sharp declines.
- The Current Economic Conditions index fell -1.5% MoM to 58.9 and is down -15.4% YoY, reflecting weaker personal finances and stagnating incomes.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 1.3% MoM to 47.9 but remains down -30.4% YoY.
- Improved sentiment after mid-May was linked to the temporary pause on China tariffs, while the tax and spending bill had little effect on consumer views.
Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 6.6% in May from 6.5% in April, still high but the smallest monthly increase since the 2024 election.
- Long-run inflation expectations eased to 4.2% from 4.4% in April, marking the first monthly decline since December 2024.
- The final May readings of inflation expectations are significantly different than the preliminary reading: 1-year final May reading is 6.6%, down from 7.3% in the early May reading, 5-year final May reading is 4.2%, down from 4.6% in the early May reading.
The early May reading of the UMich Index of Consumer Sentiment is 50.8, a drop of -2.7% MoM and -26.5% YoY and below expectations of a slight increase to 53.4.
- The Current Economic Conditions index fell -3.7% MoM, and the Index of Consumer Expectations fell -1.7% MoM.
- Sentiment is now down almost -30% since January 2025. Slight increases in sentiment this month for independents were offset by a 7% decline among Republicans.
- While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes.
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged again, up from 6.5% last month to 7.3% in May. This month’s rise was seen among Democrats and Republicans alike.
- Long-run inflation expectations lifted from 4.4% in April to 4.6% in May, reflecting a particularly large monthly jump among Republicans.
- The final release for May will reveal the extent to which the May 12 pause on some China tariffs leads consumers to update their expectations.
The final reading of the UMich Index of Consumer Sentiment in April is 52.2, a -8.4% MoM decline and slightly above the early estimate of 50.8.
- The Current Economic Conditions index fell -6.3% MoM to 59.8, and the Index of Consumer Expectations fell -10.1% MoM to 47.3.
- Expectations have fallen a precipitous -32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession.
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% in April, the highest reading since 1981 but slightly down from the early reading of 6.7%.
- This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations.
- After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March.
- Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents.
The early reading of UMich Consumer Sentiment for April fell -10.9% MoM to 50.8, below the 54.5 reading that was expected.
- The Current Economic Conditions index fell -11.4% MoM, and Index of Consumer Expectations fell -10.3% MoM.
- Sentiment has now lost more than -30% since December 2024 after four straight months of declines. This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation.
- The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009.
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.7% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 ppts or more.
- This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations.
- Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents.
The final reading of the Index of Consumer Sentiment was 57.0 in March, below the preliminary reading of 57.9.
- The Current Economic Conditions index was down -2.9% MoM to 63.8, and the Index of Consumer Expectations crashed -17.8% YoY to 52.6.
- The Expectations index is now down more than -30% since November 2024.
- This month’s decline reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations; Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations since February for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% last month to 5.0% this month, the highest reading since November 2022.
- Long-run inflation expectations surged from 3.5% in February to 4.1% in March, reflecting from a large surge among independents plus a sizable rise among Republicans.
- This marks three consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 ppts or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations.
Index of Consumer Sentiment: March 2025 (Preliminary)

The early reading of the UMich Index of Consumer Sentiment in March was down -10.5% MoM to 57.9, the lowest since November 2022 and below expectations of a drop to 63.1.
- The Current Economic Conditions index was down -3.3% MoM to 63.5, and the Index of Consumer Expectations was down -15.3% MoM to 54.2.
- Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024.
- Consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February.
- Despite their greater confidence following the election, Republicans posted a sizable -10% MoM decline in their expectations index in March.
- For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index declined an even steeper -12% MoM and -24% MoM, respectively.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% last month to 4.9% in March, the highest reading since November 2022
- This marks three consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 ppts or more.
- 5-year-ahead inflation expectations increased 0.4 ppts to 3.9%, the highest since 1991.
The final reading of the Index of Consumer Sentiment for February was down -9.8% MoM to 64.7, below expectations of a 67.8 reading.
- The Current Economic Conditions index dropped -12.5% MoM to 65.7, below expectations of 68.7.
- The Index of Consumer Expectations dropped -7.9% MoM to 64.0, below expectations of 67.3.
- Expectations for personal finances and the short-run economic outlook both declined almost 10% in February, while the long-run economic outlook fell back about 6% to its lowest reading since November 2023.
Inflation expectations picked up across both time horizons to the highest in over a year due to the threat of tariffs.
- Year ahead inflation expectations increased 1.0 ppts to 4.3%.
- 5 year ahead inflation expectations increased 0.3 ppts to 3.5%.