Latest Updates

• UK Monthly GDP: July 2025 2025-09-12 02:00

  

  UK real GDP grew +0.2% in the three months to July 2025 (vs +0.3% in June and +0.6% in May), marking the third consecutive slowdown in quarterly growth momentum.

  • Monthly GDP was flat (0.0%) in July, after +0.4% in June and -0.1% in May, reflecting mixed performance across sectors.

  • Services output rose +0.4% in the three months to July, the main driver of GDP, with notable contributions from health & social work (+1.5%), professional & technical (+1.2%), and information & communication (+1.4%).

  • Production fell -1.3% over the same period, following -0.3% in June, led by manufacturing (-1.1%), electricity & gas supply (-5.1%), and mining (-1.8%).

  • Construction increased +0.6% in the three months to July, supported by infrastructure new work (+2.1%) and private housing repair & maintenance (+3.8%).

  • In July alone, services rose +0.1% and construction +0.2%, while production fell -0.9%, with broad-based declines in manufacturing (-1.3%) and mining (-2.0%).

  • On a YoY basis, GDP grew +1.2% in the three months to July, with services (+1.3%) and construction (+1.8%) higher, while production showed no growth.

  • Consumer-facing services output declined -0.6% in the three months to July, weighed down by retail trade (-0.9%) and travel services (-9.1%), though accommodation (+1.7%) and food & beverage (+0.6%) provided partial offsets.

  Source
• UK Monthly GDP: June 2025 2025-08-14 02:00
  

  UK GDP grew 0.4% MoM in June 2025, rebounding after declines of -0.1% MoM in both April and May. In the three months to June, GDP rose 0.3% QoQ, driven by services and construction, while production contracted.

  • Services output increased 0.3% MoM, following +0.1% in May and -0.2% in April, and grew 0.4% QoQ.
  • Production output rose 0.7% MoM, reversing a -1.3% decline in May, but fell -0.3% QoQ.
  • Construction output gained 0.3% MoM after a -0.5% drop in May, and was up 1.2% QoQ.
  • On a YoY basis, GDP rose 1.4% in June, with services up 1.2%, production up 0.3%, and construction up 2.2%.

  Source
• UK Monthly GDP: May 2025 2025-07-11 02:00

  GDP

  

  UK GDP was reported to have fallen for the second straight month in May with a drop of -0.1% MoM. The decline was below expectations of a small 0.1% MoM. While there was a downside surprise in the monthly move, GDP growth in the last three months, compared to the three months before, was 0.5%, slightly ahead of expectations of a 0.4% increase. That positive surprise was a result of an upward revision in March's monthly GDP growth from 0.2% MoM to 0.4% MoM. Still, the overall trend in the quarterly data is a deceleration in growth at a 0.5% increase is down from 0.7% in March and April, and the weakest since February.

  Services

  

  The expansion over the last three months was driven by the services sector, which saw output edge up 0.1% MoM in May and grew 0.4% in the three months to May. Within the services sector, the expansion in May was broad-based as 10 of 14 subsectors saw growth, led by the information and communication (+2.0% MoM) and professional and technical activities (+0.8% MoM) subsectors. Solid growth in these categories was weighed down by weakness in wholesale and retail trade (-1.5% MoM) that was caused by a decline in non-auto retail sales (-2.7% MoM). Indeed, the ONS retail sales report for May found a decline of -2.7% MoM in retail sales volumes, the largest one-month drop since December 2023, although this followed a strong April increase of 1.3% MoM. While retail and wholesale trade caused monthly GDP growth to be lower by -15 bps, its contribution to the three-month growth rate is positive at 4 bps.

  Production

  

  The main sector of the economy that is stymying growth is the production sector, which saw a drop of -0.9% MoM in its output in May. With a contribution of -12 bps to monthly GDP growth, the production impact on growth in May was the worst since January 2024. Additionally, the monthly decline of -0.9% was a big miss below expectations of production growth being flat. In the three months to May, the sector has only grown 0.2%. Manufacturing output was particularly weak in May, down -1.0% MoM as 9 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contracted. The largest negative contributions came from basic pharmaceutical products (-4.2% MoM), transport equipment (-1.3% MoM), and basic metals and metal products (-1.8% MoM). Weakness in the mining and quarrying subsector has also been a growth headwind. Its output fell another -3.2% MoM in May.

  Construction

  

  The smaller construction sector also weighed on growth. Construction output dropped -0.6% MoM in May, dragged down by a -2.6% MoM decline in repair and maintenance that was partially offset by a 0.6% MoM increase in the new work index. Unlike the production sector, the three-month trend is a lot stronger with an increase of 1.2%, driven by growth in new infrastructure work of 5.3% in the last three months.

  Tariff Impact

  

  The US tariffs on the UK may have had an impact on growth in May, according to the ONS. In the notes highlighting cross-industry themes, it reported that “businesses who also export to the US cited the changes in tariffs on exports as a possible reason for reduced output,” with these comments mainly coming from auto manufacturing and wholesale firms, with other manufacturing areas also voicing their concern. This is consistent with the large drop in auto manufacturing reported by the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT) in May. SMMT found that vehicle manufacturing had fallen by -32.8% YoY in May, with the production of vehicles meant for export down -30.3% YoY. Shipments to the US were down -55.4% YoY, and the US share of exports dropped -6.9 ppts to 11.3% due to the 25% Section 232 tariffs. However, the SMMT is hopeful that the trade agreement between the US and the UK will correct these numbers in June and help growth rebound in the final month of Q2 2025.

  Source
• UK Monthly GDP: April 2025 2025-06-12 02:00
  

  UK GDP fell -0.3% MoM (vs -0.1% MoM expected) in April 2025 after rising 0.2% MoM in March, with the decline led by a drop in services and production output. However, GDP rose 0.7% in the three months to April, driven by growth across all major sectors.

  • Services output fell -0.4% MoM in April, its first monthly decline since October 2024, led by drops in legal activities (-10.2%), wholesale trade (-3.2%), and IT-related industries. Services rose 0.6% over the 3-month period.
  • Production output declined -0.6% MoM, driven by a -0.9% drop in manufacturing (especially a -9.5% fall in auto manufacturing) and a -4.3% fall in utilities. Quarterly production rose 1.1%.
  • Construction output rose 0.9% MoM, supported by infrastructure new work (+2.0%) and private housing R&M (+1.5%). Quarterly construction was up 0.5%.
  • Consumer-facing services rose 0.1% MoM in April and 1.2% in the 3 months to April, with gains in retail trade and personal services offsetting weakness in vehicle-related trades.
  • GDP was up 0.9% YoY in April 2025; over the 3 months to April, GDP rose 1.1% YoY with services up 1.3%, construction up 2.0%, and production down -0.2%.

  Source
• UK Monthly GDP: March 2025 2025-05-15 02:00
  

  UK GDP rose 0.2% MoM in March 2025, following 0.5% MoM in February and above expectations of no growth. GDP grew 0.7% in the three months to March, supported by services and production gains, while construction was flat over the quarter.

  • Services output rose 0.4% MoM in March and 0.7% over the quarter, driven by strong gains in wholesale/retail (0.9%), IT (1.2%), and recreation.
  • Production fell -0.7% MoM in March but rose 1.1% over the quarter; manufacturing dropped -0.8% MoM, led by steep declines in electronics (-8.4%) and pharmaceuticals (-5.8%).
  • Construction output rose 0.5% MoM in March but was flat over the quarter; growth was led by new housing (2.3%) and infrastructure (2.5%).
  • Consumer-facing services rose 0.6% MoM in March, supported by gains in recreation (5.8%) and food services (1.3%), despite a sharp decline in travel services (-6.6%).
  • GDP is estimated to be 1.1% higher YoY as of March, with services up 1.5%, construction up 0.9%, and production down -0.2%.

  Source
• UK Monthly GDP: February 2025 2025-04-11 02:00
  

  UK GDP increased 0.5% MoM in February, beating expectations of an 0.1% MoM increase. This is the strongest gain since March 2024.

  • The slight decline in January of -0.1% MoM was revised up to no growth on a monthly basis.
  • January production growth was upgraded from a decline of -0.9% MoM to a smaller decline of -0.5% MoM due to an upward revision of oil & gas extraction production.
  • Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to November 2024.
  • Services output grew 0.3% MoM and was up 0.6% in the three months to February.
  • Production jumped 1.5% MoM, reversing the January decline, and was up 0.7% in the three months to February.
  • Construction output increased 0.4% MoM and was unchanged in the three months to February.

  Source
• UK Monthly GDP: January 2025 2025-03-14 02:00
  

  The UK economy appears to have contracted in January after a particularly strong end to the previous year. ONS reported a GDP contraction of -0.1% MoM in the first month of the new year when analysts expected growth of 0.1% MoM. This is a major slowdown from the 0.4% MoM increase in December and the first GDP decline since October 2024. Despite the contraction, GDP is up 0.2% in the three months to January, and the annual GDP growth rate was 1.0% YoY (though this was lower than the 1.2% YoY that was expected).

  Production

  

  The GDP decline was a result of weakness in the production sector with that component contributing -11 bps of growth to overall growth, the largest negative contribution since April 2024. Industrial production also surprised to the downside, falling -0.9% MoM in January when a smaller -0.1% MoM decline was expected. Notably, production output was at its lowest level since May 2020. This came from a sharp -1.1% MoM decline in manufacturing production (analysts expected no change) that was the weakest since July 2024. Weakness in manufacturing was only partially offset by water & sewerage output up 2.6% MoM and electricity & gas up 0.5% MoM. Mining and quarrying also contributed negatively with a -3.3% fall on the month, largely because of a 3.7% MoM fall in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

  Services

  

  In the last two months, the UK service sector has been a reliable source of growth, but momentum faded in January. Services output contributed just 5 bps to headline GDP growth which was not enough to offset the deterioration in the manufacturing sector. The increase in services output was 0.1% MoM, the weakest increase in three months, with only six subsectors growing. The largest increases in output were in the administrative & support (+1.9% MoM) and wholesale & retail trade (0.7% MoM) subsectors. These were offset by a -2.4% MoM decline in accommodation & food services, reversing from a 0.9% MoM gain in December.

  Construction

  

  Construction output had a basically negligible impact on growth, contributing just-1 bps. The sector contracted by -0.2% MoM in January following a -0.2% MoM decline in December. New construction work was down -0.7% MoM and partially offset by an increase of 0.4% MoM in repair and maintenance activity. The decline was pronounced in private commercial new work (-6.1% MoM) and private housing new work (-1.8% MoM) which is a particularly pessimistic signal for the UK economy. While construction output declined in the last two months, a strong 0.6% MoM increase in November led to growth of 0.4% in the last three months with new work up 1.4% in the same period.

  

  The January decline is a rough start to the year, but it is hard to determine whether the UK economy is entering a clear downtrend or if we are just looking at volatile monthly data. There is evidence for the latter case in the strong GDP print last month of 0.4% MoM that blew past expectations of 0.1% MoM. The smoother 3-month rate suggests that growth is actually more stable around 0.2% and rebounding from a recent low of -0.1% in November 2024. The outlook favors this smoother trend. One of the top UK economic forecasting groups, the NIESR, expects stronger growth in February and March such that GDP will expand 0.3% in Q1 2025.

  Source
• UK Monthly GDP: November 2024 2025-01-16 02:00
  

  UK real GDP increased just 0.1% MoM in November, below expectations of an 0.2% MoM rise, and in the three months to November, GDP saw no growth. Services drove the growth, up 0.1% MoM, while production was down -0.4% and construction increased 0.4% MoM. In fact, the services contribution to growth was the strongest since May. On an annual basis, GDP is up around 1.0% YoY.

  Source
• UK Monthly GDP: October 2024 2024-12-13 02:00
  

  UK GDP fell -0.1% MoM in October as industrial production fell-0.6% MoM. Services did little to offset the industrial decline with no growth in October. Construction output was also down by -0.4% MoM. In the three months to October, GDP is up just 0.1%, supported by slight growth in services and construction in that period.

  Source
• UK Monthly GDP: December 2024 2024-02-13 02:00
  

  UK GDP grew 0.4% MoM and 1.5% YoY in December, above expectations of 0.1% MoM growth and an acceleration from the 0.1% MoM growth in November.

  • Services output grew 0.4% MoM, and production output grew 0.5% MoM. Both were slightly offset by construction down -0.2% MoM.
  • Annually, output GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in 2024 compared with 2023.

  Source