Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data Industry PMI

Source: Dallas Fed
Source Link: https://www.dallasfed.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): May 26th, 2026 10:30 AM

Latest Updates

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: April 2026 2026-04-27 10:30
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: March 2026 2026-03-30 10:30
Texas factory production index was 12.5 in February (vs 11.2 January), indicating continued above-average manufacturing expansion.
- Capacity utilization rose +4.7 pts MoM to 11.8 and new orders were roughly steady at 11.1, showing ongoing activity growth even with stable demand.
- Shipments fell -2.1 pts MoM to 9.9 (from 12.0), suggesting slower goods movement despite positive production readings.
- General business activity edged up to 0.2 (from -1.2) and company outlook held near 3.1, indicating broadly stable business conditions.
- Employment remained 7.5 while hours worked rose to 6.1 (from 0.7), pointing to steady hiring alongside longer workweeks.
- Prices received were unchanged at 17.9 while raw materials prices fell to 31.7 (-5 pts), showing easing input costs with stable selling prices.
- Wages and benefits increased sharply to 31.9 (from 17.4), indicating stronger labor cost growth.
- Outlook uncertainty rose to 6.5 but stayed below average, and future production increased to 34.3, signaling expectations of higher activity ahead.
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Texas factory activity rebounded sharply in January, with production rising to 11.2 from -3.0 after December’s contraction, signaling a return to solid output growth.
- The production index jumped +14.2 pts MoM to 11.2, marking a shift from contraction to above-average expansion.
- New orders increased to 11.8 from -6.6 and capacity utilization rose to 7.1 from -4.6, showing stronger demand and higher operating rates.
- Shipments climbed to 12.0 from -10.5, indicating a broad pickup in goods movement after December weakness.
- General business activity improved to -1.2 from -11.3, while company outlook rose to 2.9 from -12.3, reflecting stabilization in broader conditions.
- Employment strengthened to 8.2 from -1.4, and hours worked edged up to 0.7 from -7.8, pointing to resumed hiring with flat workweeks.
- Finished goods prices rose to 18.5 from 8.8, while raw materials prices held elevated at 37.1, showing selling price pressures increased while input costs were steady.
- Wages and benefits eased to 17.4 from 21.7, indicating slightly slower labor cost growth alongside improving activity levels.
Source
Texas factory activity slipped in December after November’s surge according ot the Dallas Fed, with the Production Index falling -23.7 pts to -3.2, signaling a modest pullback in output momentum.
- Demand indicators weakened, with the New Orders Index falling 11 points to -6.4 and the Capacity Utilization Index plunging 24 points to -4.5, pointing to softer order flow and lower operating rates.
- The Shipments Index declined to -10.6, its lowest reading in 17 months, suggesting slower movement of goods compared with recent months.
- Broader sentiment deteriorated, as the General Business Activity Index held negative at -10.9 and the Company Outlook Index fell further to -11.9, reinforcing pessimistic views on overall conditions.
- Outlook Uncertainty eased sharply, with the index dropping 16 points to 0.0, reflecting an equal balance of firms reporting rising and declining uncertainty.
- Labor indicators showed flat employment but reduced hours, with the Employment Index at -1.1 and the Hours Worked Index falling 17 points to -7.5, implying shorter workweeks rather than layoffs.
- Price pressures were little changed, as the Raw Materials Prices Index held at 36.0 and Finished Goods Prices edged down to 8.2, while the Wages and Benefits Index rose to 21.8, consistent with its long-run average.
- Forward-looking indicators remained positive, with the Future Production Index at 34.2 and the Future General Business Activity Index at 10.8, indicating expectations for higher activity six months ahead.
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Texas factory activity strengthened sharply in November, with the Production Index jumping to 20.5 (+15.3 pts MoM), marking a clear acceleration in output growth despite weaker overall business sentiment.
- New Orders rose to 4.8 (from -1.7), indicating a return to modest demand growth.
- Capacity Utilization increased to 19.4 (+20.5 pts), showing a substantial rebound in operating rates well above the series average.
- Shipments climbed to 15.1 (from 5.8), pointing to faster movement of finished goods.
- General Business Activity fell to -10.4 (from -5.0), reflecting broader pessimism even as production improved.
- Company Outlook declined to -6.3 (from -0.3), and Outlook Uncertainty eased to 15.7 (from 22.2) but remained elevated, signaling ongoing caution.
- Employment held steady at 1.2, suggesting flat head counts, while Hours Worked rose sharply to 9.9 (from -5.5), implying longer workweeks.
- Input costs firmed as Raw Materials Prices reached 35.3 (+1.9 pts), and Finished Goods Prices increased to 10.8 (+3.1 pts), showing mild upward pricing pressure.
- Future expectations improved, with the Future Production Index rising to 33.7 (from 21.0), and most forward-looking indicators moving further into positive territory.
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Texas factory activity expanded modestly in October, with the Production Index unchanged at 5.2, indicating continued but below-average output growth for a second consecutive month.
- New Orders were little changed at -1.7, signaling a slight decline in demand after remaining weak in recent months.
- Capacity Utilization slipped to -1.1 (from 3.9), while Shipments held steady at 5.8, suggesting stable but subdued production momentum.
- The General Business Activity Index rose four points to -5.0, remaining negative and indicating continued soft sentiment across the sector.
- Company Outlook stayed nearly flat at -0.3, though Outlook Uncertainty increased sharply to 22.2, reflecting heightened caution among manufacturers.
- Employment improved modestly to 2.0 (from -3.0), with 18% of firms reporting net hiring, while Hours Worked declined to -5.5, indicating shorter workweeks.
- Input cost pressures eased as the Raw Materials Prices Index fell ten points to 33.4; Finished Goods Prices also declined to 7.7 (from 11.7).
- The Wages and Benefits Index edged down to 14.2, remaining below its long-term average, suggesting slower compensation growth.
- Future expectations remained positive but softened, with the Future Production Index dropping to 21.0 (from 31.6) and Future General Business Activity easing to 7.0, signaling moderated optimism for early 2026.
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Texas factory activity expanded modestly in September, with the Production Index at 5.2 (down -10.1 pts from August), reflecting slower output growth and below-average momentum.
- Capacity Utilization fell sharply to 3.9 (from 13.7), signaling weaker use of existing resources.
- New Orders declined to -2.6 (from 5.8), while the Growth Rate of Orders dropped to -6.4 (from 2.6), pointing to reduced demand.
- Employment weakened to -3.4 (from 8.8), the lowest since April, though Hours Worked remained slightly positive at 3.4.
- Shipments moderated to 6.7 (from 14.2), and Unfilled Orders fell further to -8.4 (from -5.1).
- Input cost pressures remained high, with the Raw Materials Prices Index steady at 43.4, while Finished Goods Prices eased to 11.7 (from 15.1).
- Wages and Benefits held steady at 15.9, while Capital Expenditures dipped slightly to 13.3 (from 14.6).
- General Business Activity dropped to -8.7 (from -1.8), and Company Outlook slipped to -1.0 (from 3.3), though Outlook Uncertainty eased to 13.9.
Source
Texas factory activity expanded in August, with the Production Index at 15.3 (down from 21.3 in July), reflecting continued growth but at a slower pace.
- New Orders rose to 5.8 (from -3.6), turning positive for the first time since January.
- Capacity Utilization eased to 13.7 (from 17.3) but stayed elevated; Shipments climbed to 14.2, the highest in over three years.
- General Business Activity held near zero, while Company Outlook was modestly positive at 3.3; Outlook Uncertainty increased to 18.3.
- Employment remained steady at 8.8, with Hours Worked rising to 15.0, its strongest since 2021.
- Input costs remained high: Raw Materials Prices rose to 43.7, and Finished Goods Prices edged up to 15.1; Wages and Benefits inched up to 15.4.
- The Capital Expenditures index increased to 14.6 in July, up from 6.8 in June, the fourth straight month of spending growth.
- Expectations strengthened: Future Production jumped to 40.4 and Future Business Activity rose to 24.8, with most forward-looking indexes above average.
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Texas factory activity rebounded in July, with the Production Index surging to 21.3 (from 1.3), its highest since 2021, signaling a sharp improvement in output.
- The General Business Activity Index jumped to 0.9 (from -12.7) and Company Outlook rose to 4.7 (from -8.9), both turning positive after several months of declines.
- Capacity Utilization (17.3 from -1.0) and Shipments (2.7 from -7.3) also swung into positive territory; New Orders remained negative at -3.6 but improved from -7.3.
- Labor indicators strengthened: Employment rose to 8.4 and Hours Worked surged to 7.7 (from -8.4); Wages and Benefits held steady at 13.2.
- Input cost pressures stayed high, with Prices Paid for Raw Materials at 41.7, while Prices Received fell to 11.1 (from 26.1), reflecting easing output price growth.
- Outlook Uncertainty decreased 4 pts to 11.2, its lowest level since January.
Source
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey showed little change in activity in June, with the Production Index rising slightly to 1.3 from 0.9, signaling another month of flat output. Broader business sentiment remained weak but improved modestly.
- The General Business Activity Index rose to -12.7 (from -15.3) and the Company Outlook Index improved to -8.9 (from -11.3), while outlook uncertainty increased to 15.2.
- New Orders (-7.3), Shipments (-7.3), and Capacity Utilization (-1.0) remained negative, though New Orders improved 1.4 pts MoM.
- The Prices Received Index jumped 11.0 pts to 26.1, the highest since 2022; Prices Paid edged up to 43.0, remaining elevated.
- Labor indicators were mixed: Employment rose to 5.7, but Hours Worked fell sharply to -8.4; Wages and Benefits eased to 13.4.
- Capital Expenditures rose to 10.9 (from 2.1), one of the few indicators showing strength in June.
Source
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey General Business Activity Index rose 20.5 pts to -15.3 in May, indicating ongoing contraction but at a slower pace due to some easing in trade uncertainty.
- The Company Outlook index improved 17.0 pts to -11.3, and Outlook Uncertainty dropped -34.4 pts to 12.7.
- The Production Index fell -4.2 pts to 0.9, signaling stagnant output.
- The New Orders Index remained negative at -8.7 but rebounded 11.3 pts from April..
- Prices Paid and Prices Received remained elevated at 40.7 and 15.1, respectively, though the raw materials prices index eased -7.7 pts.
- The Employment Index rose to 3.5, up 7.4 pts, while the Hours Worked Index improved slightly but stayed negative at -3.6.
- Future business activity expectations improved, with the future General Business Activity Index rising 16.5 pts to 1.3 and the future Production Index up 16.3 pts to 31.1.
- Most forward-looking indicators—including new orders, shipments, and capital expenditures—rose, though some remain below historical averages.
- “Forty-two percent tariffs on our product is much better than 157 percent. But it's still 42 percent. It cuts into profits and sales.”
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