Japan's Reuters Tankan manufacturers' sentiment index rose to +13 in February (from +7 in January), the strongest reading since November, helped by improved machinery orders and a weak yen.

• Manufacturers +13 vs +7; non-manufacturers slipped to +25 from +32.
• Machinery makers jumped to +15 from 0, citing better order visibility.
• Transport machinery fell to +33 from +40 on softer domestic auto sales and China rare-earth rules.
• Survey ran Feb 3-13; 217 firms responded out of 492 contacted.
• Forward outlook: manufacturers +10 in May; non-manufacturers +23.

Japan’s Reuters Tankan manufacturers’ sentiment index fell to +7 in January (from +10 in December; -3 pts MoM), slipping to a six-month low as weaker global demand weighed on confidence.

• The manufacturers’ index declined for a second straight month (to +7 from +10), though it remained in positive territory, meaning optimistic responses still outnumbered pessimistic ones.

• Materials sectors saw the sharpest deterioration, with oil and ceramics plunging -25 pts to 0, steel falling -11 pts to -44, and chemicals down -5 pts to +6, indicating broad weakness concentrated in heavy industry.

• A steelmaker pointed to a slump in Chinese orders for auto-related items, while a chemical firm cited slower consumer spending in the U.S. and China, linking weaker sentiment to softer demand in major economies.

• The auto and electronic machinery sectors recorded smaller declines, but a machinery maker noted shrinking exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, highlighting trade policy as a headwind.

• Non-manufacturers’ sentiment edged down to +32 (from +33; -1 pt MoM), with the decline led by wholesalers (-10 pts) and retailers (-7 pts), while information, transport, and real estate improved.

• Some services firms cited fewer Chinese tourists amid Japan-China tensions, with a department store reporting foreign tourist sales down -40%, though others indicated inbound demand remains broadly resilient.

• Forward expectations diverged, with manufacturers seeing sentiment recovering to +10 by April, while non-manufacturers forecast a further decline to +26, suggesting services-sector confidence is expected to weaken further.

The Reuters Tankan index for manufacturers fell to 10 in December, down from 17 in November, which was a four-year high, as sentiment moderated due to fiscal and growth concerns.

Japan’s Reuters Tankan manufacturers’ index rose to +17 in November from +8 in October (+9 pts MoM), marking the strongest confidence reading since January 2022 and signaling improved sentiment across key export sectors.

• The non-manufacturers’ index held steady at +27, supported by strong tourism and resilient service-sector activity, with expectations unchanged through February.

• The electronics sector subindex jumped to +25 (from +5), its highest since December 2021, driven by a weaker yen and stronger semiconductor demand.

• The auto and transport machinery sector surged to +27 (from +9), supported by yen depreciation and steady customer orders.

• The yen fell more than 5% MoM to around 154.50 per dollar during the October 28–November 7 survey period, providing a tailwind to export competitiveness.

• Despite improved sentiment, manufacturers expect the overall index to ease slightly to +15 by February, reflecting some concern over soft auto production and global demand.

• Some manufacturers cited ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policy and weaker demand in China as risks to the near-term outlook.

Japan’s Reuters Tankan manufacturers’ index fell to +8 in October from +13 in September (−5 ppt MoM), its first drop in four months — reflecting rising costs and tariff pressures.

• Manufacturers’ index: +8 (Oct) vs +13 (Sep), −5 ppt MoM and the weakest reading since July; respondents expect it to slip to +4 by January.

• Auto & transport machinery: +9 (Oct) from +33 (Sep), −24 ppt MoM. This was the largest fall and notable because the sector accounted for roughly a third of U.S. exports and about 8% of employment.

• Non-manufacturers: +27 (unchanged). Firms project a slight dip to +26 by January; the retail subindex improved to +27 from +20, aided by recovering urban sales and inbound tourism.

• Cost pressures: Numerous respondents cited rising input costs — raw materials, labour and energy — and said not all increases can be passed on to customers.

• Trade policy / tariffs: Managers flagged the impact of U.S. tariffs (including a 15% tariff noted for some auto-related trade) and additional tariff costs on steel and aluminium as weighing on outlooks.

• Demand / competition: Several firms pointed to weaker overseas demand — including China’s slowdown — and increased competition from low-cost imports; five of nine manufacturing sub-indexes fell in October.

• The Reuters Tankan drew on ~500 firms (237 responses, survey 24 Sep–3 Oct). A separate Japan Center for Economic Research poll of economists expects a likely −1.1% annualised Q3 GDP contraction, reflecting sagging external demand.

Japan’s Reuters Tankan manufacturing index rose to +13 in September from +9 in August, the highest since August 2022, marking a third consecutive monthly improvement after the July U.S.–Japan tariff deal.

• Six of nine manufacturing industries saw improved sentiment, with transport machinery surging to +33 from +25, its strongest since December 2023 on solid order flows.

• Other sectors such as textiles, oil refining, and precision machinery weakened, with managers citing sluggish orders and lingering tariff effects.

• Manufacturers expect sentiment to ease slightly to +11 by December, reflecting cautious views on domestic demand and cost pressures.

• Non-manufacturing sentiment rebounded to +27 in September from +24, with real estate, retail, and transport improving, while wholesalers and IT reported weaker conditions.

• The non-manufacturing outlook was unchanged at +27 for December, suggesting stable confidence in services.

• Respondents pointed to persistent inflation and rising material and labor costs as drags on future sentiment, even as trade policy risks receded.

• Japan’s economy expanded +2.2% annualized in Q2 2025, supported by resilient domestic consumption despite global trade headwinds.

The Reuters Tankan manufacturing index rose to +9 in August from +7 in July, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, but is projected to drop to +4 by November amid concerns over U.S. tariff impacts.

• The non-manufacturing index declined to +24 from +30, its first drop in five months, with a slight rebound to +25 expected in the next three months.
• Transport machinery sentiment surged to +25 from +9 but is forecast to fall back to +9 by November.
• The food industry saw the sharpest drop, plunging to -25 from 0, as firms cited higher input costs.
• Real estate, construction, and retail firms reported declines in sentiment, though all remained in positive territory.
• Respondents noted ongoing uncertainty from U.S. trade policy, with some citing weaker car sales in China and heatwave-related impacts on services.

The Reuters Tankan manufacturing index edged up to +7 in July from +6 in June, with sentiment expected to improve further to +8 by October amid a recovery in semiconductors.

• The non-manufacturing index held steady at +30 for the third straight month but is seen softening to +27 in the coming three months.
• Electronics machinery sentiment improved to -4 in July from -16 in June, while chemicals rose to +18 from +12.
• Transport machinery sentiment fell sharply to +9 from +20, as firms cited the impact of new U.S. auto tariffs.
• Service sector outlook was mixed, with retail and IT weaker but wholesale sentiment improving.
• Firms noted rising uncertainty from U.S. trade policy and cautious investment appetite due to global headwinds.
• Japan’s export-driven economy contracted in Q1 and saw a YoY export decline in May, raising recession fears.