Reuters Tankan Index

Data Sentiment

Source: Reuters
Source Link: https://www.reuters.com/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): October 9th, 2025 6:00 PM

Latest Updates

Japan’s Reuters Tankan manufacturing index rose to +13 in September from +9 in August, the highest since August 2022, marking a third consecutive monthly improvement after the July U.S.–Japan tariff deal.
- Six of nine manufacturing industries saw improved sentiment, with transport machinery surging to +33 from +25, its strongest since December 2023 on solid order flows.
- Other sectors such as textiles, oil refining, and precision machinery weakened, with managers citing sluggish orders and lingering tariff effects.
- Manufacturers expect sentiment to ease slightly to +11 by December, reflecting cautious views on domestic demand and cost pressures.
- Non-manufacturing sentiment rebounded to +27 in September from +24, with real estate, retail, and transport improving, while wholesalers and IT reported weaker conditions.
- The non-manufacturing outlook was unchanged at +27 for December, suggesting stable confidence in services.
- Respondents pointed to persistent inflation and rising material and labor costs as drags on future sentiment, even as trade policy risks receded.
- Japan’s economy expanded +2.2% annualized in Q2 2025, supported by resilient domestic consumption despite global trade headwinds.
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The Reuters Tankan manufacturing index rose to +9 in August from +7 in July, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, but is projected to drop to +4 by November amid concerns over U.S. tariff impacts.
- The non-manufacturing index declined to +24 from +30, its first drop in five months, with a slight rebound to +25 expected in the next three months.
- Transport machinery sentiment surged to +25 from +9 but is forecast to fall back to +9 by November.
- The food industry saw the sharpest drop, plunging to -25 from 0, as firms cited higher input costs.
- Real estate, construction, and retail firms reported declines in sentiment, though all remained in positive territory.
- Respondents noted ongoing uncertainty from U.S. trade policy, with some citing weaker car sales in China and heatwave-related impacts on services.
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The Reuters Tankan manufacturing index edged up to +7 in July from +6 in June, with sentiment expected to improve further to +8 by October amid a recovery in semiconductors.
- The non-manufacturing index held steady at +30 for the third straight month but is seen softening to +27 in the coming three months.
- Electronics machinery sentiment improved to -4 in July from -16 in June, while chemicals rose to +18 from +12.
- Transport machinery sentiment fell sharply to +9 from +20, as firms cited the impact of new U.S. auto tariffs.
- Service sector outlook was mixed, with retail and IT weaker but wholesale sentiment improving.
- Firms noted rising uncertainty from U.S. trade policy and cautious investment appetite due to global headwinds.
- Japan’s export-driven economy contracted in Q1 and saw a YoY export decline in May, raising recession fears.
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The Reuters Tankan manufacturing index fell to +6 in June from +8 in May, with sentiment expected to decline further to +2 in the next three months amid U.S. tariff risks and weak Chinese demand.
- The non-manufacturing index held steady at +30 in June but is expected to weaken to +24 in the coming three months.
- Automotive and machinery sectors reported reduced production and cautious capital expenditure due to tariff uncertainties.
- A chemicals firm cited falling domestic sales as clients shift production to the U.S. to avoid tariffs.
- Service firms benefited from strong IT investment and inbound tourism but faced rising labor costs and staff shortages.
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The Reuters Tankan manufacturing index fell -1 pt to 8 in May, but broadly firms continue to be pessimistic due to tariffs.
- The outlook turned sour particularly among export-heavy businesses such as automotive and machinery makers.
- In the near term, firms in the transport and metal products said sentiment is likely to worsen due to tariff uncertainty, accelerating inflation and China's weakening economy.
- The non-manufacturing index was unchanged at 30.
- Rising labour and raw material costs weighed on confidence, said a manager at a transportation firm, whereas some managers found support from inbound tourism.
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The Reuters Tankan manufacturing index improved 10 pts to 9 in April, but broadly firms are still bearish in their outlooks.
- The outlook turned sour particularly among export-heavy businesses such as automotive and machinery makers.
- The non-manufacturing index improved as well, up 5 pts to 30.
- Real estate and information service firms were confident about their outlook whereas shipping firms voiced concern about rising labour costs and falling volume due to intensifying Sino-U.S. trade tension.
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The Reuters Tankan index tracking manufacturing sentiment fell -4 pts to -1 in March, the first negative reading since December 2024.
- Index for non-manufacturers falls to +25 from +30.
- Manufacturers index seen at +4 in June, non-manufacturers at +28.
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The Reuters Tankan measure of manufacturing sentiment improved to 3 in February from 2 in January.
- The non-manufacturing index eased -1 pt to 30.
- In the next three months, the manufacturing index is expected to rise to 5, and the non-manufacturing index is expected to remain at 30.
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The Japanese Reuters Tankan Index for manufacturers increased by 3 pts to 2 in January. On a three-month-ahead outlook, manufacturers' level of confidence is seen unchanged at plus 2 in April. Meanwhile, the service-sector index inched up to plus 31 in January from 30 in the month prior. The index is expected to stay flat at 31 in April.

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