RCM-TIPP Consumer Sentiment Survey

Data Sentiment

Source: RealClear Media Group
Source Link: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): February 3rd, 2026 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped to 47.2 in January (-1.5% MoM, -3.9% vs long-run average), showing slightly softer consumer confidence while remaining below the neutral 50 threshold.
- The headline index fell 0.7 pts MoM from 47.9 to 47.2, leaving optimism below 50 for a fifth straight month and keeping sentiment in the report’s “pessimistic zone.”
- January’s 47.2 reading is 3.9% below the 300-month historical average of 49.1, indicating confidence remains subdued relative to longer-run norms.
- Investor confidence weakened -9.0% MoM (-5.4 pts) to 54.5, while non-investor confidence rose +4.1% (+1.7 pts) to 43.5, narrowing the investor/non-investor gap from 18.1 to 11.0 pts.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -2.5% MoM from 44.4 to 43.3, indicating softer expectations for near-term economic conditions.
- The Personal Financial Outlook rose +1.7% MoM from 54.0 to 54.9, the only one of the three major components to improve in January.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies fell -4.2% MoM from 45.4 to 43.5, pointing to weaker assessments of government economic policy effectiveness.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index declined -2.0% MoM (-1.3 pts) from 64.2 to 62.9, signaling slightly easing financial strain, though stress remained +4.0% above the long-run average of 60.5.
- Demographic breadth weakened: 7 of 21 groups were above 50 in January (vs 6 in December), but only 9 groups improved (vs 21 improving in December), showing less broad-based momentum.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to 47.9 in December (from 43.9 in November), marking a solid 9.1% MoM gain but remaining below the neutral 50 threshold for the fourth straight month.
- The index is 2.5% below its long-run average of 49.1, indicating confidence has improved but remains weaker than typical historical levels.
- Investor confidence increased to 59.9 (+1.3 pts, +2.2% MoM), while non-investor confidence rose to 41.8 (+3.8 pts, +9.1%), narrowing the gap between the two groups.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook improved to 44.4 (+4.4 pts, +11.0%), showing firmer expectations for near-term economic conditions.
- The Personal Financial Outlook climbed to 54.0 (+3.4 pts, +6.7%), remaining the strongest of the three subcomponents and signaling improving sentiment toward household finances.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies rose to 45.4 (+4.3 pts, +10.5%), its second consecutive monthly gain.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index declined to 64.2 (-1.0 pt, -1.5%), though it remained 6.2% above the long-term average of 60.5, indicating elevated but slightly easing financial strain.
- Six of 21 demographic groups were optimistic (vs. four in November), while all 21 groups saw MoM improvement, showing broad-based gains in sentiment across age, gender, race, and education categories.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell -4.4 pts (-9.1% MoM) to 43.9 in November 2025, marking its third straight month below the neutral 50 threshold and signaling deepening consumer pessimism. The index now stands 10.7% below its long-term average of 49.2.
- Investor confidence dropped -1.9 pts (-3.1%) to 58.6, while non-investor confidence fell -4.4 pts (-10.4%) to 38.0, widening the optimism gap to 20.6 pts from 18.1 in October.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -2.8 pts (-6.5%) to 40.0, showing further deterioration in expectations for near-term economic conditions.
- The Personal Financial Outlook fell -5.0 pts (-9.0%) to 50.6, remaining barely above neutral and reflecting weaker household confidence in future finances.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies slid -5.3 pts (-11.4%) to 41.1, its third consecutive decline after briefly rising above neutral in August.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index increased +1.9 pts (+3.0%) to 65.2, its highest since early 2023 and 7.9% above the long-term average (60.4), pointing to mounting financial strain.
- Only 4 of 21 demographic groups were optimistic in November, down from 6 in October and 10 in August, indicating a narrowing base of positive sentiment.
- Inflation and tariffs—especially food prices—remained top concerns, while the government shutdown and tight monetary policy were cited as key factors weighing on confidence.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped -0.4 pts (-0.8% MoM) to 48.3 in October 2025, marking a second month below the neutral 50 threshold and signaling continued consumer pessimism. The index remains 1.7% below its 297-month average (49.2).
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell -2.7 pts (-5.9%) to 42.8, the weakest since late 2023, showing a sharper deterioration in short-term economic expectations.
- The Personal Financial Outlook improved +2.2 pts (+4.1%) to 55.6, reflecting a modest rebound in confidence about individual household finances.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies declined -0.9 pts (-1.9%) to 46.4, staying below neutral for a second straight month after briefly rising above 50 in August.
- The Investor Confidence Index fell -2.0 pts (-3.2%) to 60.5, while non-investor confidence rose +0.5 pts (+1.2%) to 42.4, widening the optimism gap to 18.1 pts.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index dropped -2.0 pts (-3.1%) to 63.3, easing slightly but remaining 4.8% above its long-term average (60.4), indicating still-elevated financial strain.
- Only six of 21 demographic groups were optimistic (above 50.0), down from seven in September and ten in August, showing a narrowing base of positive sentiment.
- According to TechnoMetrica, inflation and tariffs—especially food prices—remain top concerns weighing on consumer confidence.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell -2.2 pts (-4.3% MoM) to 48.7 (vs 51.8 expected) in September, slipping back into pessimistic territory after briefly rising above 50.0 in August, and now sits -0.93% below its 296-month average of 49.2.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -0.6 pts (-1.3% MoM) to 45.5, remaining firmly below the neutral 50.0 level.
- The Personal Financial Outlook dropped -2.3 pts (-4.1% MoM) to 53.4, though it stayed in optimistic territory despite weakening from August.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies fell -3.5 pts (-6.9% MoM) to 47.3, reversing August’s brief move above 50.0 that ended a 47-month pessimistic streak.
- Investor confidence slid -2.6 pts (-4.0% MoM) to 62.5, while non-investor confidence dropped -1.6 pts (-3.7% MoM) to 41.9, widening the gap between groups to 20.6 pts.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index eased slightly to 65.3 (-0.3 pts MoM), but remains 8.1% above its long-term average (60.4), signaling continued elevated stress levels.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 4.7% MoM to 50.9 in August, ending a five-month streak in pessimistic territory and rising above its 295-month average of 49.2.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook improved to 46.1 from 44.5 (+3.6% MoM), though it remained below the neutral 50.0 mark.
- The Personal Financial Outlook rose to 55.7 from 54.0 (+3.1% MoM), staying in optimistic territory.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies jumped to 50.8 from 47.3 (+7.4% MoM), breaking a 47-month streak below 50.0.
- Investor confidence surged to 65.1 (+13.2% MoM), a 48-month high, while non-investor sentiment edged up to 43.5 (+0.5% MoM).
- The Financial-Related Stress Index increased to 65.6 from 61.2 (+7.2% MoM), 8.6% above its long-term average, indicating elevated stress levels.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell -1.2% MoM to 48.6 in July, marking its fifth straight month in pessimistic territory and falling below the long-term average of 49.2.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -1.3% MoM to 44.5, staying in pessimistic territory.
- The Personal Financial Outlook edged up 0.4% MoM to 54.0, remaining in optimistic territory.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies dropped -2.7% MoM to 47.3, marking the 47th consecutive pessimistic reading.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index eased -2.9% MoM to 61.2, the lowest since January and 1.4% above its long-term average.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 2.7% MoM to 49.2 in June, the highest reading since February, but remained in pessimistic territory for the fourth straight month.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook improved 3.4% MoM to 45.1, up from 43.6 in May.
- The Personal Financial Outlook rose 2.5% MoM to 53.8, remaining in optimistic territory.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged up 2.1% MoM to 48.6, still below the neutral 50.0 mark for 46 consecutive months.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index dropped -3.7 pts to 63.0, the lowest since September 2023 but still 4.4% above its long-term average.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined -2.4% MoM to 47.9 in May, marking the third straight month in pessimistic territory and a reading below expectations of an increase to 50.2.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell -3.1% MoM to 43.6, while the Personal Financial Outlook dropped -5.4% MoM to 52.5.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies improved slightly to 47.6, up 1.9% MoM, but remained below 50.0 for the 45th consecutive month.
- Financial-Related Stress Index jumped 4.7% MoM to 66.7, well above the long-term average of 60.3 and the highest since October 2023.
- Investor confidence eased -0.8% to 60.4, while non-investor sentiment fell more sharply by -4.2% to 40.9.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined -0.7 pts to 49.1 in April, a -1.4% MoM drop, marking the second consecutive month in pessimistic territory after falling below 50.0 in March.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell -2.6% MoM to 45.0, continuing its downward trend.
- Fears of inflation and a slowdown persist: 79% of Americans are worried about inflation, and 76% are concerned about an economic slowdown in the next 12 months.
- The Personal Financial Outlook rose 0.4% MoM to 55.5.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies declined -2.5% MoM to 46.7, remaining below 50.0 for the 44th consecutive month.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index eased slightly, dropping -0.3% MoM to 63.7, though still above its long-term average of 60.3.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell -2.2 pts to 49.8, a drop of -4.2% MoM, a sharp divergence from analysts’ expectations of a rise to 53.1.
- Since President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, the index had stayed in optimistic territory but slipped below the 50.0 threshold in March (however, it is still above the historical average of 49.2).
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined by -9.6% MoM to 46.2 in March, breaking a four-month streak above 50.
- The Personal Financial Outlook dropped by 1.3% MoM to 55.3 this month.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies declined from 48.8 in February to 47.9 this month, reflecting a -1.8% MoM decline. This component has been below 50.0 in the pessimistic territory for 43 consecutive months since September 2021.
- The Financial-Related Stress index increased 2.7 pts or 4.4% MoM to 63.9 in March. This is 6.0% above the long-run average which signals a slight but significant increase in financial stress.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in February increased slightly by 0.2% MoM to 52.0, down from December's 40-month high of 54.0 and a drop below the expected reading of 53.0.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook index declined -1.9% MoM to 51.1
- The Personal Financial Outlook index dropped -6.8% MoM to 56.0
- The Confidence in Federal Economic Policies index improved 12.4% MoM to 48.8 from January's 43.4
- The investor confidence index increased 1.6% MoM to 57.8, and the non-investor confidence declined -1.2% MoM to 48.9
- The financial stress index decreased -5.4% MoM to 61.2
- 77% of consumers are worried about inflation and 71% are concerned about economic slowdown in next 12 months. Food prices ranked as top economic concern.
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