Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Data Industry PMI

Source: Philadelphia Fed
Source Link: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): October 16th, 2025 8:30 AM

Latest Updates

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed the General Activity Index rose 24 pts to 23.2 in September, its highest since January, with new orders and shipments returning to positive territory.
- New Orders increased 14 pts to 12.4, marking the first positive reading since April, while Shipments surged 22 pts to 26.1, both indicating stronger demand momentum.
- The Employment Index was little changed at 5.6, still reflecting modest job growth, while the Average Workweek rose 10 pts to 14.9.
- Prices Paid fell 20 pts to 46.8, down from last month’s multiyear high, while Prices Received declined 17 pts to 18.8, signaling some easing in cost pressures though both remain elevated.
- Special questions showed 46% of firms reported higher Q3 production versus Q2, with median capacity utilization steady at 70–80%. Uncertainty, labor supply, and supply chains remained key constraints.
- The Future General Activity Index rose 7 pts to 31.5, with firms broadly expecting growth over the next six months; future employment expectations strengthened, but future capital expenditure plans fell sharply.
Source
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey’s General Activity Index dropped sharply to -0.3 in August from 15.9 in July, with new orders turning negative and shipments weakening, signaling a loss of momentum.
- New Orders fell 20 pts to -1.9, the first negative reading since April, while Shipments dropped to 4.5, erasing last month’s gains.
- The Employment Index eased to 5.9 (from 10.3) but still indicated modest job growth; the Average Workweek rose to 4.7.
- Prices Paid surged 8 pts to 66.8, the highest since May 2022, while Prices Received edged up to 36.1, showing continued price pressures.
- Firms expect their own prices to rise 4.1% over the next year (vs 3.8% in May), while wage/benefit costs are expected to grow 3.5% (down from 4.0%).
- Future expectations strengthened, with the Future General Activity Index up to 25.0, and New Orders (39.2), Shipments (40.3), and Capital Expenditures (38.4) all at multi-month highs.
Source
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey’s General Activity Index rose to 15.9 in July from -4.0 in June, marking the first positive reading in four months and the highest since February.
- New Orders jumped to 18.4 (from 2.3) and Shipments rose to 23.7 (from 8.3), both reaching five-month highs.
- The Employment Index climbed to 10.3 (from -9.8), indicating firms are adding workers again, while the Average Workweek edged up to 0.4.
- Prices Paid surged to 58.8 (from 41.4), and Prices Received increased to 34.8 (from 29.5), showing a reacceleration in cost and selling price pressures.
- The Delivery Times Index fell to -4.7, suggesting faster delivery times, while Inventories dipped to -1.3.
- Future activity measures remained positive, with the Future General Activity Index up to 21.5, though expectations for future hiring moderated slightly.
- In general, firms revised down their expectations of cost growth for nonlabor inputs in 2025 except for energy from April to July. Labor cost growth was also revised down with wage growth expectations remaining about the same.
Source
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey’s General Activity Index was unchanged at -4.0 (vs -1.5 expected) in June, signaling continued contraction in regional factory activity.
- New Orders fell -5.2 pts to 2.3, while Shipments rose 21.3 pts to 8.3, its first positive reading since March.
- Employment dropped sharply, with the index falling -26.3 pts to -9.8, its lowest since May 2020. The Average Workweek index saw a smaller drop, slipping to -1.6 from 2.0 previously.
- Prices Paid fell -18.4 pts to 41.4, and the Prices Received index dropped -14.1 pts to 29.5, both still elevated but moderating.
- The Future Activity Index dropped -28.9 pts to 18.3, indicating less confidence in six-month growth; future new orders and shipments also declined.
- In special questions, 40.7% of firms reported a drop in Q2 production vs Q1, and most firms continued operating at 70–80% capacity. Labor supply and uncertainty were cited as key constraints.
Source
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey General Business Conditions index rose 22.4 pts to -4.0 in May, rebounding from April’s sharp drop but still in contraction.
- The New Orders index jumped 41.7 pts to 7.5, turning positive, while the Shipments index fell -3.9 pts to -13.0, its lowest since November 2023.
- Employment rose, with the index up 16.3 pts to 16.5, and the Average Workweek index turned positive, rising 14.7 pts to 2.0.
- Prices Paid increased 8.8 pts to 59.8, the highest since June 2022, and the Prices Received index climbed 12.9 pts to 43.6.
- The Future General Business Conditions index surged 40.3 pts to 47.2, with expectations for orders, shipments, and capex all rising.
- Firms expect their own prices and U.S. consumer inflation to rise 3.8% over the next year, up from 3.0% in February.
Source
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey General Business Conditions index crashed -38.9 pts to -26.4, the lowest reading since April 2023.
- Nearly 39% of the firms reported decreases in general activity this month.
- The index for new orders also fell sharply, from 8.7 in March to -34.2 this month, its lowest reading since April 2020.
- The current shipments index decreased 11 pts to -9.1 this month.
- The prices paid index edged up from 48.3 to 51.0, its highest reading since July 2022. Almost 54% of the firms reported increases in input prices.
- The current prices received index ticked up 1 pt to 30.7. Almost 31% of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, none reported decreases.
Source
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity index fell -5.6 pts to 18.1 in March.
- The New Orders index fell -13.2 pts to 8.7, and the Shipments index dropped -24.3 pts to 2.0.
- The Number of Employees index jumped 14.4 pts to 19.7 with workweeks seeing stronger growth as well.
- Prices Paid jumped 7.8 pts to 48.3, the highest since July 2022, but Prices Received fell -3.1 pts to 29.8.
- In a special question, 46.9% of firms reported a decline in production in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024.
Source
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing General Business Activity index fell from its strong January reading of 44.3 to 18.1 in February, roughly in line with expectations of a 20.0 reading.
- The surge in the new orders and shipments indexes was reversed from 42.9 to 21.9 and from 41.0 to 26.3 respectively.
- Inventory growth at 11.7 flipped to a marginal inventory decline of -0.7.
- The prices paid and prices received indexes both increased, up 8.6 pts to 40.5 and up 3.2 pts to 32.9 respectively.
- Employment growth slowed to 5.3, down -6.6 pts.
Source
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey General Business Activity index jumped 55.3 pts to 44.3 in January, crushing the estimate of a rise to just -5 and rising to the highest level in almost 4 years. New Orders and Shipments both saw 40+ pt increases to 42.9 (34-month high) and 41.0 (45-month high) respectively.

Unfilled orders increased at a stronger rate, and the price indexes both indicated rising inflation. The Prices Received index jumped 24.1 pts, the highest since January 2023. Employment also saw a significant improvement, up 7.1 pts to 11.9, and workweeks turned from a slight deterioration (-3.7) to a solid increase (20.5).

Source