NY Fed Business Leaders Survey

Data Sentiment

Source: New York Fed
Source Link: https://www.newyorkfed.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): September 16th, 2025 8:30 AM

Latest Updates

The NY Fed Business Leaders Survey showed another contraction in August, with the Business Activity Index slipping to -11.7 (from -9.3 in July), marking the sixth straight monthly decline and indicating ongoing weakness in the region’s service sector.
- The Business Climate Index fell to -39.3 (from -34.6), signaling that conditions remain significantly worse than normal for most firms.
- The Employment Index edged down to 1.0 (from 3.8), suggesting headcount was broadly unchanged, while wage growth held roughly steady (Wages Index at 28.0).
- The Prices Paid Index remained high at 64.3, indicating continued input cost pressures, and the Prices Received Index rose to 32.0, the highest since March 2023, pointing to stronger selling price increases.
- The Capital Spending Index improved to -2.9 (from -8.5), remaining in negative territory but indicating a slower pace of decline in investment plans.
- Firms’ future outlook deteriorated, with the index for future business activity falling to -6.8, reflecting renewed pessimism about conditions ahead.
Source
The NY Fed Business Leaders Survey Business Activity Index remained negative in July, with the headline index rising 3.9 pts to -9.3, marking the fifth straight monthly contraction.
- The Business Climate index improved by 13.7 pts to -34.6, though still signaling conditions worse than normal for most firms.
- The Employment index rose 6.3 pts to 3.8, suggesting modest job growth; wage pressures also picked up, with the Wages index jumping 9.0 pts to 28.3.
- Prices Paid edged down -2.0 pts to 64.5 but remained elevated, while Prices Received surged 9.1 pts to 30.1, the highest since March 2023.
- Capital Spending rose slightly, up 4.1 pts to -8.5, still negative but improving from June.
- Supply availability remained a constraint with its index at -7.1, though less severe than in the prior month.
Source
Business activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region's service sector declined for a fourth straight month in June, with the headline index rising 3.0 pts but remaining negative at -13.2.
- The Business Climate index stayed weak at -48.3, with 56% of firms saying conditions were worse than normal.
- The Employment index fell -2.0 pts to -2.5, while the Wages index dropped -8.9 pts to 19.4, the slowest wage growth in over four years.
- Prices Paid saw another increase of 8.0 pts to 66.5, the highest since early 2023, while Prices Received held steady at 21.0.
- The Supply Availability index worsened slightly by -1.2 pts to -17.2.
- The Capital Spending index dropped -4.3 pts to 12.6, the lowest since early 2021.
- Outlook improved but remained downbeat, with Future Business Activity at -9.3 and Future Business Climate at -28.3.
Source
The New York Fed Business Leaders Survey, tracking services firms in the NY Fed region, Business Activity index increased 3.6 pts to -16.2 in May.
- The Business Climate index bounced 9.0 pts but was still very weak at -51.7. Sixty-one percent of respondents said that the business climate was worse than normal.
- The Employment index turned slightly negative dropping -1.8 pts to -0.5.
- The Prices Paid index only increased 0.9 pts but remained elevated at 57.6, while the Prices Received index actually fell -5.3 pts to 20.7.
- The Capital Spending index continued to trend negatively, falling -4.8 pts to -8.3, the lowest since early 2021.
- The index for future business activity remained firmly negative at -28.1, holding at its lowest level since April 2020, suggesting firms expect activity to decline significantly in the months ahead; only 21% expect activity to increase.
Source
The New York Fed Business Leaders Survey Business Activity index fell -0.5 pts to -19.8 in April, its lowest level since late 2023.
- The Business Climate index dropped -9.0 pts to -60.7, the lowest in over four years.
- The Employment index bounced 6.0 pts to 1.3 after briefly dropping below zero.
- The Prices Paid and Prices Received indexes both saw small declines after running up to near-term highs in Q1, down -1.2 pts to 57.6 and down -2.7 pts to 26.0.
- After plunging -25 pts last month, the index for future business activity sank another -23.3 pts to -26.6, its lowest reading since April 2020.
- Similarly, the future business climate index saw another sharp drop of -23.1 pts to -50.0, the lowest since 2009.
- The future prices paid continued rising, up 8.5 pts to 71.8, to the highest since the COVID supply chain crunch in 2022.
Source
The New York Fed Business Leaders Survey Business Activity index fell -8.8 pts to -19.3 in February, another new low.
- The Business Climate index fell -16.1 pts to -51.7, its lowest level since 2021, with a sharp decline in the forward-looking activity index of -24.9 pts to -3.3, the first negative reading since 2023.
- The Number of Employees index improved slightly but remained negative. The forward looking indicator of employment fell -6.9 pts to 3.8, the lowest since late 2020.
- Prices Paid increased 7.5 pts to 58.8, and Prices Received increased 1.3 pts to 28.7. Both indexes are at the highest levels in about a year.
Source
The New York Fed Business Leaders Survey Business Activity index fell -4.9 pts to -10.5 in February, the lowest level in more than a year.
- The Business Climate index dropped -13.8 pts to -35.6, and the same forward looking indicator flipped to negative after a -16.8 pts drop to -3.6.
- The Number of Employees index fell further into negative territory, down -5.7 pts to -4.2.
- The Prices Paid index increased 2.8 pts to 51.3 while the Prices Received index grew at a faster pace, up 8.0 pts to 27.4.
- The Supply Availability saw a sharp -14.5 pts downturn to -10.4, the lowest since mid-2022.
Source
The New York Fed Business Leaders Survey Business Activity index edged down -0.4 pts to -5.6 with the Business Climate improving slightly by 1.9 pts to -21.8 in January. After falling to a multiyear low last month, the Prices Received index rose 8 pts to 19.4. Employment is still basically flat or very slightly negative.

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