NRA Restaurant Performance Index

Data Services

Source: National Restaurant Association
Source Link: https://restaurant.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): December 30th, 2025 9:00 AM

Latest Updates

The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index rose +0.4% MoM to 99.8 in October 2025, marking a modest improvement but still signaling industry contraction for a fourth straight month.
- The Current Situation Index increased +0.5% MoM to 99.6, supported by better same-store sales even as customer traffic declined for the ninth consecutive month.
- Same-store sales strengthened, with 48% of operators reporting YoY gains (Sep: 45%), while 35% reported declines (Sep: 44%), indicating a firmer sales backdrop.
- Customer traffic remained weak, with 33% of operators citing YoY increases and 48% citing declines, reflecting continued softness in guest counts.
- The Expectations Index rose +0.3% MoM to 100.0, showing operators’ slightly improved six-month outlook for sales, staffing, and capital spending.
- Sales expectations softened: 30% expect higher sales in six months (Sep: 34%), while 24% expect declines, showing mixed sentiment.
- Economic expectations improved modestly: 22% foresee better conditions in six months (Sep: 11%), though 46% still expect worsening conditions.
- Capital spending remained solid, with 51% of operators investing over the past three months and 54% planning spending in the next six months, marking the seventh straight month above the 50% threshold.
Source
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) fell -0.4% MoM to 99.4 in September 2025, marking its lowest level since March and signaling continued contraction in restaurant industry activity.
- The Current Situation Index declined -0.7% to 99.2, its third consecutive month below 100, reflecting weaker same-store sales and ongoing declines in customer traffic.
- The Expectations Index edged down -0.1% to 99.7, its third straight month in contraction territory, as operators remained cautious about future sales and pessimistic about economic conditions.
- Same-store sales were mixed: 45% of operators reported YoY gains while 44% saw declines, little changed from August.
- Customer traffic weakened further, with 34% of operators reporting increases (down from 38%) and 52% reporting declines (up from 42%), marking the eighth consecutive month of net negative traffic.
- Capital spending remained resilient, with 52% of operators making investments over the past three months—the fourth straight month above the 50% threshold.
- Looking ahead, only 34% of operators expect higher sales in six months (down from 40% in August), while just 11% foresee an improving economy—the lowest optimism reading in 17 months.
- Despite softer sentiment, 51% of operators still plan capital expenditures in the next six months, underscoring continued long-term investment amid near-term weakness.
Source
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) edged up +0.1% MoM to 99.8 in August 2025, but remained below the 100 expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing contraction despite modest sales gains.
- The Current Situation Index rose +0.1 pts to 99.8, with operators reporting higher same-store sales but continued weakness in customer traffic.
- The Expectations Index also increased slightly to 99.8, with optimism about sales at its highest since February 2025, though the index stayed in contraction territory.
- Same-store sales rose for the fifth consecutive month, with 46% of operators reporting gains YoY in August, though this was down from 48% in July.
- Customer traffic remained a drag, as 42% of operators reported declines in August, marking the seventh straight month of net negative traffic readings.
- Capital expenditures strengthened, with 54% of operators making investments in the past three months, the highest level in 20 months.
- Looking ahead, 40% of operators expect higher sales in six months (vs 29% in July), while only 17% anticipate an improving economy and 43% expect conditions to worsen.
- Despite economic pessimism, 54% of operators plan capital spending in the next six months, the fifth straight month of majority investment intentions.
Source
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) fell -0.3% MoM to 99.7 in July 2025, slipping below the expansion threshold as weak traffic offset steady sales and cautious operator sentiment.
- The Current Situation Index dipped -0.2% MoM to 99.7, with same-store sales rising for a fourth month but customer traffic down for the sixth straight month.
- The Expectations Index declined -0.3% MoM to 99.7, as operators reported mixed sales outlooks and remained broadly pessimistic on the economy.
- 48% of operators reported higher same-store sales YoY in July, while 42% saw declines; traffic trends stayed negative despite a slight uptick.
- Capital expenditures rose, with 53% of operators investing in the past three months—the highest in 13 months—and 55% planning spending in the next six months.
- Only 15% of operators expect the economy to improve in six months, the weakest reading since September 2024, while 41% anticipate worsening conditions.
Source
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) edged down -0.1% MoM to 100.0 in June 2025, holding just at the expansion threshold as mixed sales and traffic trends continued.
- The Current Situation Index declined -0.4% MoM to 100.0, as customer traffic (-0.9%) and labor (-0.7%) slipped, partially offset by a 0.7% increase in capital expenditures.
- The Expectations Index rose 0.2% MoM to 100.1, led by a modest 0.5% gain in future same-store sales expectations and a 0.3% rise in capex plans.
- 49% of operators reported higher same-store sales YoY in June (down from 52% in May), while 36% saw increased customer traffic (down from 40%).
- Just 23% of operators expect the economy to improve over the next six months, while 44% expect conditions to worsen.
- Despite macro pessimism, 54% of operators plan capital expenditures in the next six months, the highest reading in a year.
Source
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index rose 0.4% MoM to 100.1 in May 2025, returning to expansion territory for the first time since January as same-store sales and customer traffic improved.
- The Current Situation Index rose 0.9% MoM to 100.4, led by gains in sales (+1.0%), traffic (+1.6%), and labor (+1.3%), though capex slipped slightly (-0.2%).
- The Expectations Index edged down -0.2% to 99.9, with a drop in business conditions sentiment (-0.7%) outweighing modest gains in sales and capex outlooks.
- 52% of operators reported higher YoY same-store sales in May, the highest share since January; 40% saw an increase in customer traffic.
- Only 20% of operators expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down sharply from late 2024 optimism.
- Despite macro concerns, 53% of operators plan capital expenditures in the next six months, up from 52% in April.
Source
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index rose 0.9% MoM to 99.7 in April, but remained below the neutral level of 100, signaling continued contraction in overall industry conditions.
- The Current Situation Index increased 0.5% MoM to 99.4, its second straight monthly rise, supported by modest gains in same-store sales and labor indicators.
- The Expectations Index rose 1.2% MoM to 100.0, reaching the neutral expansion threshold, with slight improvement in sales and staffing outlooks.
- 45% of operators reported YoY same-store sales increases, while 48% continued to see lower customer traffic.
- Only 23% of operators expect higher sales in six months, and just 24% anticipate economic improvement, both notably weaker than late 2024 sentiment.
- Capital spending plans remained firm, with 52% of operators expecting to invest in equipment or remodeling in the next six months.
Source
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index was essentially unchanged in March, rising just 0.1% MoM to 98.9, remaining below the neutral level of 100.
- The Current Situation Index rose 2.0% MoM to 98.9, with modest improvements in same-store sales and customer traffic.
- The Expectations Index fell -1.8% MoM to 98.8, its second consecutive sharp decline.
- The indexes tracking expectations for same-store sales and business conditions were both down by more than -2% on a monthly basis.
- Despite gains in the present indicators, both components remained in contraction territory.
- The overall outlook among restaurant operators grew more pessimistic, particularly regarding future sales and broader economic conditions.
Source
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index fell -2.3% MoM in February after a slight 1.0% MoM increase in January.
- The Current Situation Index was down -3.5% MoM with large declines in same-store sales (-6.0% MoM) and customer traffic (-6.0% MoM).
- The Expectations Index fell -1.1% MoM with a decline in same-store sales expectations of -1.9% MoM
- 32% of restaurant operators expect their sales volume in six months to be higher than it was during the same period in the previous year. That was the lowest reading since the October 2024 survey period.
Source
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index increased 1.0% MoM in January, bouncing back from a -1.0% MoM decline in December.
- The Current Situation Index grew 1.4% MoM led by the Same-Store Sales Index up 2.1% MoM and the Customer Traffic Index up 2.7% MoM.
- The Expectations Index increased 0.6% MoM, led by the Staffing Index up 2.3% MoM while Same-Store Sales Index was flat.
Source
The Restaurant Performance Index fell -1.0% MoM in December with the Current Situation Index down -1.2% MoM and the Expectations Index down -0.9% MoM.
- The RPI’s December decline was largely the result of softer current same-store sales (-3.1% MoM) and customer traffic (-3.1% MoM) readings.
- Expectations for sales and traffic were also softer but to a lesser extent.
Source
Source