New York Fed Staff Nowcast

Outlook GDP

Source: New York Fed
Source Link: https://www.newyorkfed.org/
Frequency: Weekly
Next Release(s): August 29th, 2025 11:45 AM

Latest Updates

The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast eased to 2.01% (from 2.06% on Aug 15), as weaker survey and construction data outweighed gains from housing.
- The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook fell -0.30, subtracting -0.10 ppts from the Nowcast.
- Building permits dropped -39.00, reducing the forecast by -0.07 ppts and reflecting softer construction momentum.
- Housing starts rose +5.16, contributing +0.11 ppts to growth expectations.
- Data revisions added a modest +0.01 ppts, while parameter revisions had no impact.
- Overall, the Nowcast remains near 2.0%, indicating stable but moderate growth momentum.
The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast ticked up to 2.06% (from 2.02% on Aug 8), supported by stronger survey and retail data.
- The Empire State Manufacturing Survey (+11.90) added +0.11 ppts to the Nowcast, reflecting improving business sentiment.
- Retail sales and food services (+0.51% MoM) contributed +0.06 ppts, indicating firm consumer spending.
- CPI ex-food & energy (+0.32% MoM) subtracted 0.03 ppts, while CPI all items (+0.20% MoM) had a neutral impact.
- Industrial production fell -0.12% MoM, lowering the Nowcast by 0.10 ppts, offsetting some of the gains from surveys and consumption.
- Parameter revisions subtracted 0.04 ppts, while data revisions had no material effect.
The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q3 2025 fell -10 bps to 2.02% from 2.12% the prior week, with trade data driving the decline.
- July ISM non-manufacturing NMI composite index came in at 50.10, with no impact on the Nowcast.
- Q2 unit labor costs rose +1.6%, also with no measurable impact on the estimate.
- Imports of goods and services fell -3.66%, subtracting -0.05 ppts from growth; exports fell -0.48%, subtracting -0.04 ppts.
- No data or parameter revisions affected the latest estimate.
The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q3 2025 remained steady at 1.66% over the last week, down only -1 bps from the previous week’s forecast of 1.68%.
- Total business inventories rose 0.21% MoM and merchant wholesale inventories rose 0.18% MoM; both had no measurable impact on the Nowcast.
- JOLTS job openings fell by -275,000 in June, subtracting a marginal 0.01 ppts from the growth estimate.
- The advance estimate for Q2 real GDP came in at 2.97% on July 30, higher than the model’s Nowcast but not incorporated into the Q3 estimate.
- No parameter or data revisions affected the latest estimate.
The New York Fed’s Q2 2025 GDP Nowcast edged down to 1.68% (from 1.71% on July 18) following mixed durable goods data.
- Durable goods new orders fell -9.34% MoM, subtracting -0.03 ppts from the Nowcast.
- Shipments of durable goods rose 0.47% MoM, contributing +0.02 ppts.
- Inventories (+0.16% MoM) and unfilled orders (+0.99% MoM) had no measurable impact.
- New single-family home sales increased 0.64 million SAAR, but also had no effect on the growth estimate.
- Parameter and data revisions were neutral on the Nowcast.
The New York Fed’s Q2 2025 GDP Nowcast is unchanged at 1.56% this week as there were no major data points released that affected the model.
The New York Fed’s Q2 2025 GDP Nowcast was revised down to 1.72% from 1.91% after the June 27 update, as weak consumption and income data more than offset modest gains from manufacturing.
- Real personal consumption expenditures fell -0.28% MoM, subtracting -0.12 ppts from the forecast.
- Data revisions shaved -0.11 ppts off the Nowcast, reflecting downward adjustments to Q1 GDP.
- Real disposable personal income dropped -0.69% MoM, contributing -0.01 ppts to the revision.
- New single-family home sales fell -13.71%, reducing the forecast by -0.04 ppts.
- Manufacturers’ new durable goods orders rose +16.37%, adding +0.02 ppts.
The New York Fed’s Q2 2025 GDP Nowcast was revised down to 1.91% from 2.34% following the June 20th update, with weaker construction, production, and survey data dragging the estimate lower.
- Building permits (-29k) and housing starts (-9.77k) subtracted a combined -0.14 ppts from the Nowcast.
- Industrial production declined -0.22% MoM, contributing -0.06 ppts to the revision.
- The Empire State Manufacturing Survey (-16.0) and Philadelphia Fed index (-4.0) together reduced the forecast by -0.05 ppts.
- Retail sales and food services data reduced the forecast by -0.19 ppts.
- Export prices fell -0.92% MoM, subtracting -0.01 ppts; import prices were flat and had no impact.
The New York Fed’s Q2 2025 GDP Nowcast was revised up slightly to 2.34% from 2.33% following the June 13 update, with a modest positive contribution from inflation data.
- Core CPI (CPI-U ex food & energy) rose +0.13% MoM, adding +0.01 ppts to the Nowcast.
- Headline CPI (CPI-U all items) increased +0.08% MoM but had no impact on the model.
- Data revisions and parameter updates had no effect on the GDP estimate.
- The overall impact of the June 11 data was minimal, reflecting stable inflation dynamics.
The New York Fed’s Q2 2025 GDP Nowcast stands at 2.33%, down -9 bps from 2.42% last week, as weak labor and trade data slightly lowered the growth estimate.
- ADP private payrolls rose by 37k, subtracting -0.10 ppts from the Nowcast.
- Nonfarm payrolls rose 139k, contributing -0.03 ppts; ISM PMI composite and services indexes also dragged slightly (-0.04 and -0.01 ppts).
- Imports of goods and services fell -16.31%, adding +0.03 ppts, while exports rose 2.95%, contributing +0.13 ppts.
- Construction spending declined -0.45% MoM, reducing growth by -0.01 ppts.
- JOLTS job openings were flat at 191k with no effect, while parameter revisions trimmed -0.01 ppts.