Latest Updates

• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of November 28th 2025-11-28 11:45

  Q3 2025 Nowcast:

  

  Q4 2025 Nowcast:

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of November 21st 2025-11-21 11:45

  Q3 2025 Nowcast:

  

  Q4 2025 Nowcast:

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of November 14th 2025-11-14 11:45

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of November 7th 2025-11-07 11:45

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of October 31st 2025-10-31 11:45

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of October 24th 2025-10-24 11:45

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of October 17th 2025-10-17 11:45

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of October 10th 2025-10-10 11:45

  

  The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q4 2025 edged slightly lower to 2.34% as of October 10 (from 2.35% on October 3), as the government shutdown led to the cancellation of several key reports.

  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing (NMI) composite index was reported at 50.0, contributing 0.00 ppts to the model and indicating no change in the Nowcast estimate.

  • No new data, revisions, or parameter adjustments meaningfully affected the projection during the week.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of October 3rd 2025-10-03 11:45

  

  The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q3 2025 slipped to 2.35% as of October 3 (from 2.55% on September 26), reflecting weaker labor market data and downward revisions.

  • The ADP nonfarm private payrolls report showed a -32,000 job decline, subtracting -0.12 ppts from the Nowcast.

  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI composite index registered 49.1, adding a modest +0.01 ppts despite remaining in contraction territory.

  • The ISM manufacturing employment index came in at 45.3, also contributing +0.01 ppts, while the ISM prices index at 61.9 had no measurable impact.

  • JOLTS job openings were reported at 19.0 million, neutral for the forecast.

  • Data revisions (-0.04 ppts) and parameter revisions (-0.05 ppts) together shaved off -0.09 ppts from the estimate.

  • The latest update places GDP growth expectations notably lower than last week’s 2.55% reading, though still above the late-summer plateau near 2.0%.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of September 26th 2025-09-26 11:45

  

  The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q3 2025 rose to 2.55% as of September 26 (from 2.10% on September 19), marking the strongest reading since the nowcast was initiated.

  • PCE chain price index rose +0.27% MoM, adding +0.01 ppts to the Nowcast, while the core PCE index (+0.23% MoM) had no measurable impact.

  • Real disposable personal income increased +0.11% MoM, though the effect on the forecast was neutral.

  • Real personal consumption expenditures grew +0.35% MoM, contributing +0.12 ppts to GDP growth expectations.

  • Data revisions made a substantial impact (specifically referring to the strong positive revisions to Q2 2025 GDP), boosting the nowcast by 0.22 ppts.

  • New single-family home sales jumped +20.48% MoM, adding +0.03 ppts to the Nowcast.

  • Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods rose +2.92% MoM, boosting the Nowcast by +0.03 ppts.

  • Other manufacturing indicators were weaker: shipments of durable goods fell -0.15% MoM and unfilled orders edged up +0.65% MoM, with limited impact overall.

  • Inventories were mixed, with merchant wholesalers’ total inventories down -0.21% MoM and manufacturers’ durable goods inventories off -0.01% MoM, subtracting slightly from growth.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of September 19th 2025-09-19 11:45

  

  The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast held steady at 2.10% as of September 19, little changed from 2.08% the prior week, with mixed data releases balancing out across sectors.

  • The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook rose to 23.2, adding +0.07 ppts to the Nowcast.

  • By contrast, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to -8.7, subtracting -0.07 ppts from the Nowcast.

  • Export prices increased +0.26% MoM, while import prices rose +0.28% MoM, with no measurable impact on growth estimates.

  • Retail sales and food services rose +0.63% MoM, contributing +0.11 ppts to the Nowcast.

  • Building permits declined -50.0k, subtracting -0.05 ppts from the Nowcast, while housing starts dropped -8.54k, though the impact was neutral.

  • Industrial production edged up +0.10% MoM, adding +0.02 ppts to the Nowcast.

  • Data and parameter revisions had minimal impact (+0.01 ppts).
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of September 12th 2025-09-12 11:45

  

  The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast edged down to 2.08% as of September 12, slightly below the prior week’s 2.10%, reflecting a modest drag from August CPI data.

  • CPI-U (all items less food & energy) rose +0.35% MoM, subtracting -0.02 ppts from the Nowcast.

  • CPI-U (all items) rose +0.38% MoM, subtracting -0.01 ppts from the Nowcast.

  • No additional impact came from data revisions or parameter revisions.

  • The overall Nowcast has trended lower from above 2.4% in early summer to just above 2.0% in recent weeks, signaling softer momentum despite mixed economic releases.