New York Fed Staff Nowcast

Outlook GDP

Source: New York Fed
Source Link: https://www.newyorkfed.org/
Frequency: Weekly
Next Release(s): March 20th, 2026 11:45 AM

Latest Updates

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 3.2]% and the 80% probability interval at [-0.1, 4.2]%.
- News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.1 percentage point.
- This decrease was largely driven by the negative revision to 2025 Q4 GDP data.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.3]% and the 80% probability interval at [0, 4.3]%.
- News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate for 2026 Q1 by 0.2 percentage point.
- This decrease was largely driven by negative surprises from retail sales data and nonfarm payroll employment data.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.4%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.5]% and the 80% interval at [0.1, 4.5]%.
- News from this week's data releases left the estimate for 2026 Q1 unchanged.
- Impacts from individual data releases this week (housing and construction data) were negligible.
The final New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 was 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.1]%. The advance estimate of real GDP growth for 2025 Q4, released by the Commerce Department on February 20, was 1.4%.
- The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.4%. News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.2 percentage point.
- This decrease was largely driven by a negative surprise from GDP data.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.1]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.6%.
- News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 unchanged.
- A positive impact from nonfarm payroll employment data was offset by a negative impact from retail sales data for both quarters.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.0]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.6%.
- News from this week's data releases left the estimate for 2025 Q4 unchanged while decreasing the estimate for 2026 Q1 by 0.1 percentage point.
- The decrease for 2026 Q1 was driven by negative surprises from ADP employment data and data revisions.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.6, 5.1]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.7%.
- News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 unchanged.
- Positive impacts from manufacturers' new orders and imports data were offset by a negative impact from exports data for both quarters.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.6, 5.1]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.7%.
- News from this week's data releases left the estimate for 2025:Q4 unchanged while decreasing the estimate for 2026 Q1 by 0.1 percentage point.
- For 2025 Q4, a positive surprise from personal consumption data was offset by negative surprises from disposable income and headline PCE data. The decrease for 2026 Q1 was driven by a negative surprise from headline PCE data.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% probability interval at [0.5, 5.1]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.8%.
- News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively.
- Positive impacts from retail sales and manufacturing survey data drove the increases for both quarters.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.5, 3.9]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.0]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.6%.
- News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage point, respectively.
- A positive impact from parameter revisions drove the increase for both quarters, along with positive contributions from nonfarm payroll employment and exports data for 2025 Q4.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.2]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.2]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.2%.
- There were no data releases or significant data revisions this week, leaving both estimates unchanged.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q4 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.2]% and the 80% interval at [-0.0, 4.2]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q1 is 2.2%.
- News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2025:Q4 by 0.4 percentage point and for 2026:Q1 by 0.1 percentage point.
- The increase in the 2025:Q4 estimate was driven by a positive surprise from GDP data.