New York Fed Staff Nowcast

Outlook GDP

Source: New York Fed
Source Link: https://www.newyorkfed.org/
Frequency: Weekly
Next Release(s): October 17th, 2025 11:45 AM

Latest Updates

The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q4 2025 edged slightly lower to 2.34% as of October 10 (from 2.35% on October 3), as the government shutdown led to the cancellation of several key reports.
- The ISM Non-Manufacturing (NMI) composite index was reported at 50.0, contributing 0.00 ppts to the model and indicating no change in the Nowcast estimate.
- No new data, revisions, or parameter adjustments meaningfully affected the projection during the week.
The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q3 2025 slipped to 2.35% as of October 3 (from 2.55% on September 26), reflecting weaker labor market data and downward revisions.
- The ADP nonfarm private payrolls report showed a -32,000 job decline, subtracting -0.12 ppts from the Nowcast.
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI composite index registered 49.1, adding a modest +0.01 ppts despite remaining in contraction territory.
- The ISM manufacturing employment index came in at 45.3, also contributing +0.01 ppts, while the ISM prices index at 61.9 had no measurable impact.
- JOLTS job openings were reported at 19.0 million, neutral for the forecast.
- Data revisions (-0.04 ppts) and parameter revisions (-0.05 ppts) together shaved off -0.09 ppts from the estimate.
- The latest update places GDP growth expectations notably lower than last week’s 2.55% reading, though still above the late-summer plateau near 2.0%.
The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q3 2025 rose to 2.55% as of September 26 (from 2.10% on September 19), marking the strongest reading since the nowcast was initiated.
- PCE chain price index rose +0.27% MoM, adding +0.01 ppts to the Nowcast, while the core PCE index (+0.23% MoM) had no measurable impact.
- Real disposable personal income increased +0.11% MoM, though the effect on the forecast was neutral.
- Real personal consumption expenditures grew +0.35% MoM, contributing +0.12 ppts to GDP growth expectations.
- Data revisions made a substantial impact (specifically referring to the strong positive revisions to Q2 2025 GDP), boosting the nowcast by 0.22 ppts.
- New single-family home sales jumped +20.48% MoM, adding +0.03 ppts to the Nowcast.
- Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods rose +2.92% MoM, boosting the Nowcast by +0.03 ppts.
- Other manufacturing indicators were weaker: shipments of durable goods fell -0.15% MoM and unfilled orders edged up +0.65% MoM, with limited impact overall.
- Inventories were mixed, with merchant wholesalers’ total inventories down -0.21% MoM and manufacturers’ durable goods inventories off -0.01% MoM, subtracting slightly from growth.
The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast held steady at 2.10% as of September 19, little changed from 2.08% the prior week, with mixed data releases balancing out across sectors.
- The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook rose to 23.2, adding +0.07 ppts to the Nowcast.
- By contrast, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to -8.7, subtracting -0.07 ppts from the Nowcast.
- Export prices increased +0.26% MoM, while import prices rose +0.28% MoM, with no measurable impact on growth estimates.
- Retail sales and food services rose +0.63% MoM, contributing +0.11 ppts to the Nowcast.
- Building permits declined -50.0k, subtracting -0.05 ppts from the Nowcast, while housing starts dropped -8.54k, though the impact was neutral.
- Industrial production edged up +0.10% MoM, adding +0.02 ppts to the Nowcast.
- Data and parameter revisions had minimal impact (+0.01 ppts).
The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast edged down to 2.08% as of September 12, slightly below the prior week’s 2.10%, reflecting a modest drag from August CPI data.
- CPI-U (all items less food & energy) rose +0.35% MoM, subtracting -0.02 ppts from the Nowcast.
- CPI-U (all items) rose +0.38% MoM, subtracting -0.01 ppts from the Nowcast.
- No additional impact came from data revisions or parameter revisions.
- The overall Nowcast has trended lower from above 2.4% in early summer to just above 2.0% in recent weeks, signaling softer momentum despite mixed economic releases.
The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast eased slightly to 2.10% last week, down from 2.22% the prior week, as softer labor and trade data outweighed mixed survey results.
- ADP private payroll employment rose +54k in August, but the impact was -0.05 ppts on the Nowcast, reflecting weaker-than-expected hiring momentum.
- The civilian unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% (+0.1 ppts MoM), subtracting -0.03 ppts from growth expectations.
- JOLTS job openings fell sharply by -176k to 7.18 million, though with limited immediate impact on the Nowcast.
- Trade data weighed on growth: imports rose +5.92% while exports declined -0.23%, reducing the forecast by a net -0.03 ppts.
- Value of construction put in place dropped -0.07% MoM, subtracting -0.01 ppts, signaling ongoing softness in construction activity.
- Survey data were neutral overall, with ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices little changed and contributing no impact to the Nowcast.
The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast rose to 2.22% last week, up from 2.01% in the week before, with stronger consumer spending and income data offsetting weakness in housing and durable goods.
- Real personal consumption expenditures rose +0.33%, adding +0.04 ppts to the Nowcast.
- Real disposable personal income increased +0.22%, contributing +0.00 ppts to growth.
- New single-family home sales fell -0.61m units, subtracting -0.00 ppts and signaling continued housing weakness.
- Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods dropped -2.82%, reducing the forecast by -0.08 ppts, while shipments rose +1.41%, adding +0.14 ppts.
- Real gross domestic income surged +4.77%, lifting the Nowcast by +0.03 ppts, with additional upward support from data revisions (+0.10 ppts).
The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast eased to 2.01% (from 2.06% on Aug 15), as weaker survey and construction data outweighed gains from housing.
- The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook fell -0.30, subtracting -0.10 ppts from the Nowcast.
- Building permits dropped -39.00, reducing the forecast by -0.07 ppts and reflecting softer construction momentum.
- Housing starts rose +5.16, contributing +0.11 ppts to growth expectations.
- Data revisions added a modest +0.01 ppts, while parameter revisions had no impact.
- Overall, the Nowcast remains near 2.0%, indicating stable but moderate growth momentum.
The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast ticked up to 2.06% (from 2.02% on Aug 8), supported by stronger survey and retail data.
- The Empire State Manufacturing Survey (+11.90) added +0.11 ppts to the Nowcast, reflecting improving business sentiment.
- Retail sales and food services (+0.51% MoM) contributed +0.06 ppts, indicating firm consumer spending.
- CPI ex-food & energy (+0.32% MoM) subtracted 0.03 ppts, while CPI all items (+0.20% MoM) had a neutral impact.
- Industrial production fell -0.12% MoM, lowering the Nowcast by 0.10 ppts, offsetting some of the gains from surveys and consumption.
- Parameter revisions subtracted 0.04 ppts, while data revisions had no material effect.
The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q3 2025 fell -10 bps to 2.02% from 2.12% the prior week, with trade data driving the decline.
- July ISM non-manufacturing NMI composite index came in at 50.10, with no impact on the Nowcast.
- Q2 unit labor costs rose +1.6%, also with no measurable impact on the estimate.
- Imports of goods and services fell -3.66%, subtracting -0.05 ppts from growth; exports fell -0.48%, subtracting -0.04 ppts.
- No data or parameter revisions affected the latest estimate.
The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast for Q3 2025 remained steady at 1.66% over the last week, down only -1 bps from the previous week’s forecast of 1.68%.
- Total business inventories rose 0.21% MoM and merchant wholesale inventories rose 0.18% MoM; both had no measurable impact on the Nowcast.
- JOLTS job openings fell by -275,000 in June, subtracting a marginal 0.01 ppts from the growth estimate.
- The advance estimate for Q2 real GDP came in at 2.97% on July 30, higher than the model’s Nowcast but not incorporated into the Q3 estimate.
- No parameter or data revisions affected the latest estimate.
The New York Fed’s Q2 2025 GDP Nowcast edged down to 1.68% (from 1.71% on July 18) following mixed durable goods data.
- Durable goods new orders fell -9.34% MoM, subtracting -0.03 ppts from the Nowcast.
- Shipments of durable goods rose 0.47% MoM, contributing +0.02 ppts.
- Inventories (+0.16% MoM) and unfilled orders (+0.99% MoM) had no measurable impact.
- New single-family home sales increased 0.64 million SAAR, but also had no effect on the growth estimate.
- Parameter and data revisions were neutral on the Nowcast.