Latest Updates

• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of January 23rd 2026-01-23 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.6, 5.1]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.7%.

  • News from this week's data releases left the estimate for 2025:Q4 unchanged while decreasing the estimate for 2026 Q1 by 0.1 percentage point.
  • For 2025 Q4, a positive surprise from personal consumption data was offset by negative surprises from disposable income and headline PCE data. The decrease for 2026 Q1 was driven by a negative surprise from headline PCE data.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of January 16th 2026-01-16 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% probability interval at [0.5, 5.1]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.8%.

  • News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively.
  • Positive impacts from retail sales and manufacturing survey data drove the increases for both quarters.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of January 9th 2026-01-09 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.5, 3.9]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.0]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.6%.

  • News from this week's data releases increased the estimates for 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage point, respectively.
  • A positive impact from parameter revisions drove the increase for both quarters, along with positive contributions from nonfarm payroll employment and exports data for 2025 Q4.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of January 2nd 2026-01-02 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.2]% and the 80% interval at [0.0, 4.2]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.2%.

  • There were no data releases or significant data revisions this week, leaving both estimates unchanged.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of December 26th 2025-12-26 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q4 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.2]% and the 80% interval at [-0.0, 4.2]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q1 is 2.2%.

  • News from this week's data releases increased the estimate for 2025:Q4 by 0.4 percentage point and for 2026:Q1 by 0.1 percentage point.
  • The increase in the 2025:Q4 estimate was driven by a positive surprise from GDP data.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of December 19th 2025-12-19 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q4 is 1.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.6, 2.9]% and the 80% interval at [-0.4, 4.0]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q1 is 2.1%.

  • News from this week's data releases decreased the estimates for 2025:Q4 and 2026:Q1 by 0.1 percentage point each.
  • A positive surprise from headline CPI data was more than offset by negative surprises from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey for both quarters.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of December 12th 2025-12-12 11:45

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of December 5th 2025-12-05 11:45

  

  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q4 is 1.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.6, 3.0]% and the 80% interval at [-0.6, 4.1]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026:Q1 is 2.2%.

  • News from this week's data releases decreased the estimates for 2025:Q4 and 2026:Q1 by 0.6 and 0.5 percentage point, respectively.
  • Negative surprises from ADP employment and ISM manufacturing survey data drove the decrease for both quarters.
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of November 28th 2025-11-28 11:45

  Q3 2025 Nowcast:

  

  Q4 2025 Nowcast:

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of November 21st 2025-11-21 11:45

  Q3 2025 Nowcast:

  

  Q4 2025 Nowcast:

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of November 14th 2025-11-14 11:45

  
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast: Week of November 7th 2025-11-07 11:45