Monthly Budget Review

Commentary Government

Source: Congressional Budget Office
Source Link: https://www.cbo.gov/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): October 8th, 2025 2:00 PM

Latest Updates

The U.S. federal budget deficit totaled $2.0 trillion in the first 11 months of FY2025, up $92 billion (+5% YoY), as revenues rose 7% YoY while outlays increased 6% YoY.
- Revenues rose $299 billion (+7% YoY) to $4.7 trillion; individual income & payroll taxes were up $229 billion (+6% YoY), while corporate income taxes fell -$32 billion (-8% YoY).
- Customs duties surged +$95 billion (+137% YoY) to $165 billion, boosted by higher tariffs; excise taxes (+$4 billion, +4%) and Fed remittances (+$2 billion, +75%) also increased.
- Outlays rose $391 billion (+6% YoY) to $6.7 trillion; excluding timing shifts, the increase was $310 billion (+5%).
- Social Security spending rose $111 billion (+8%), Medicare +$64 billion (+8%), and Medicaid +$47 billion (+8%), reflecting higher enrollment and costs.
- Net interest on public debt climbed $72 billion (+8%), while defense (+$36 billion, +5%) and veterans’ benefits (+$36 billion, +12%) also drove higher spending.
- Education outlays fell -$110 billion (-44%), largely from lower student loan costs, while FDIC (-$63 billion) and SBA (-$32 billion) spending also declined.
- The August 2025 monthly deficit was $360 billion, -$20 billion (-5% YoY), as revenues (+12% YoY) outpaced outlays (+3% YoY).
- The CBO projects a full-year FY2025 deficit of $1.8 trillion, slightly below January’s forecast, partly reflecting a $130 billion outlay reduction from student loan program modifications.
Source
The U.S. federal deficit totaled $1.63 trillion in the first 10 months of FY2025, up $109 billion (+7% YoY), as revenues rose 6% YoY while outlays increased 7% YoY.
- Total receipts reached $4.35 trillion, led by a $214 billion (+6% YoY) increase in individual & payroll taxes and a $70 billion (+112% YoY) surge in customs duties from higher tariffs; corporate income taxes fell -$27 billion (-7% YoY).
- Outlays rose to $5.97 trillion, driven by Social Security (+$102 billion, +8% YoY), Medicare (+$58 billion, +8% YoY), Medicaid (+$47 billion, +9% YoY), and interest on the public debt (+$60 billion, +8% YoY).
- Education spending fell -$81 billion (-38% YoY) due to lower student loan costs; FDIC (-$63 billion) and SBA (-$31 billion) also saw large declines.
- The July 2025 monthly deficit was $289 billion, up $45 billion (+19% YoY), with receipts up 3% YoY and outlays up 9% YoY.
Source
The US federal deficit totaled $1.36 trillion in the first eight months of FY25, up 7% YoY from $1.20 trillion in the same period of FY24.
- Total receipts were $3.48 trillion, up 6% YoY, while total outlays rose to $4.85 trillion, up 6% YoY.
- Individual and payroll taxes rose by 8% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, while corporate tax receipts fell -3% YoY.
- Net interest on the public debt increased by $53 billion (9% YoY), and Social Security outlays rose by $80 billion (8% YoY).
- May 2025 saw a monthly deficit of $314 billion, down -15% YoY from May 2024.
- The Treasury reported a surplus of $258 billion in April 2025, $2 billion above CBO’s earlier estimate.
Source
The US federal deficit was $1.05 trillion in the first seven months of FY25, up 13% YoY from $855 billion in the same period in FY24.
- Total receipts in that period were $2.96 trillion, up 5% YoY, and total outlays were $3.82 trillion, up 7% YoY.
- In January 2025, CBO projected a deficit of $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2025, the same as the actual deficit for fiscal year 2024.
- Total mandatory outlays were up 8% YoY, and total non-mandatory outlays were up 7% YoY including an 11% YoY increase in net interest on public debt.
- In April alone, the federal budget surplus was $256 billion, up 22% YoY, as receipts were stronger by 10% over a year ago.
Source
Monthly Budget Review: March 2025 2025-04-08 14:00
Monthly Budget Review: February 2025 2025-03-10 14:00
Monthly Budget Review: January 2025 2025-02-10 14:00
Monthly Budget Review: December 2024 2025-01-10 14:00
Monthly Budget Review: November 2024 2024-12-09 14:00