J.D. Power Automotive Forecast

Data Transportation

Source: J.D. Power
Source Link: https://www.jdpower.com/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): March 19th, 2026 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

U.S. total new-vehicle sales are forecast at 1.183M units in February (-3.8% YoY) with retail sales -4.6% YoY, indicating weaker annual demand despite seasonal improvement.
- Total sales SAAR is 15.6M (vs 16.2M in February 2025) and retail sales SAAR is 12.6M (vs 13.2M), showing softer annualized sales momentum.
- EV share is 6.6% (-1.8 ppts YoY) while ICE rises to 78.7% (+2.6 ppts) and HEV 13.5% (+0.1 ppt), reflecting a shift away from EVs.
- Average retail transaction price is $46,303 (+2.7% YoY); non-EV prices $46,097 (+3.0%) and EV prices $46,528 (+2.6%), indicating continued price pressures.
- Average monthly payment is $811 (+$32 YoY) while loan rates fell to 6.72% (-31 bps YoY) and 84-month loans rose to 12.7% (+1.8 ppts), suggesting affordability strain despite easing rates.
- Incentive spending averages $3,293 (+$63 YoY); EV discounts $10,356 (-$1,664 YoY) and non-EV discounts $3,085 (+$346 YoY), showing incentives shifting toward non-EV vehicles.
- Inventory stands at 2.19M units (+1.4% YoY) with 65 days supply and retailer profit per unit $2,524 (+$83 YoY), while total consumer spending is $41.3B (-2.4% YoY), indicating higher per-unit profitability but lower aggregate sales value.
- Used vehicle prices average $29,488 (+$448 YoY) and trade-in equity is $7,013 (roughly flat YoY), suggesting continued strength in the used market supporting trade-ins.
- Share of buyers with negative equity is 31.5% (+3.4 ppts YoY), indicating more households carrying loan balances into new purchases.
- Fleet sales total 251,681 units (-0.4% YoY) and represent 21.3% of sales (+0.7 ppts), showing a slightly larger fleet share within overall volumes.
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U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast at 1.12M units in January 2026 (-2.7% YoY), reflecting a modestly softer start to the year.
- Total new-vehicle sales (retail + non-retail) are projected at 1,118,700 units (-2.7% YoY), though on an unadjusted selling-day basis sales are +1.2% vs January 2025 due to one extra selling day (26 vs 25).
- Total SAAR is expected at 15.0M units, down from 15.5M in January 2025 and down from 16.1M in December 2025, indicating weaker annualized momentum entering 2026.
- Retail new-vehicle sales are projected at 908,500 units (-3.7% YoY), with retail SAAR at 12.7M (vs 13.2M in January 2025 and 13.5M in December 2025).
- EVs are expected to account for 6.6% of retail sales (-2.9 ppts YoY), while ICE vehicles rise to 77.7% (+2.7 ppts YoY) and HEVs increase to 14.7% (+1.4 ppts YoY), showing a mix shift toward ICE/hybrids.
- Average retail transaction prices are expected at $45,880 (+1.1% YoY), with non-EV prices at $45,510 (+0.9% YoY) and EV prices at $51,981 (+18.1% YoY), highlighting a sharp relative increase for EV pricing.
- Average monthly finance payments are projected at $760 (+$24 YoY), while the average new-vehicle loan rate is 6.29% (-48 bps YoY); 84-month loans are expected to rise to 11.7% of financed sales (vs 9.9% a year ago), underscoring affordability strain.
- Incentive spending averages $3,192 per vehicle (+$25 YoY), with EV discounts at $11,212 (-$1,820 YoY) versus non-EV discounts at $3,004 (+$403 YoY), reflecting lower EV discounting alongside stronger incentives on ICE vehicles.
- Retail inventory is estimated at 2.12M units (-1.4% YoY), equal to 59 days of supply (+2 days YoY), while dealer profit per unit is projected at $2,148 (-$62 YoY; +$224 vs December) and total retailer profit at $1.9B (-2.6% YoY).
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U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast at 1.45M units in December 2025 (-7.5% YoY), reflecting a year-end slowdown after a volatile sales pattern.
- Total new-vehicle sales, including retail and non-retail, are projected at 1,454,000 units (-7.5% YoY), or -3.8% YoY on an unadjusted selling-day basis, pointing to softer year-end volumes despite an extra selling day versus last year.
- Total SAAR is expected at 15.9M units, down 1.1M from December 2024, while retail SAAR rises to 13.6M from 12.7M in November, indicating some sequential improvement but weaker YoY momentum.
- Retail sales are forecast at 1,222,800 units (-7.4% YoY), with Q4 retail volumes down -4.8% YoY, contrasting with full-year 2025 retail sales projected up +4.0% YoY on a selling-day-adjusted basis.
- EVs are expected to account for 6.6% of retail sales, down 4.6 ppts YoY, while ICE vehicles rise to 78.1% (+4.6 ppts YoY), showing a pronounced shift away from EV purchases late in the year.
- Average new-vehicle transaction prices are projected at $47,104 (+1.5% YoY), while average monthly finance payments rise to $776 (+$21 YoY), underscoring continued affordability pressures.
- Incentive spending averages $3,433 per vehicle (+$77 YoY), with EV discounts at $11,414 (-$57 YoY) and non-EV incentives at $3,219 (+$425 YoY), reflecting diverging pricing dynamics by powertrain.
- Retail inventory stands at 2.39M units (+11.7% YoY), equal to 70 days of supply, while retailer profit per unit declines to $1,974 (-$112 YoY), indicating improved availability alongside margin compression.
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U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast at 1.26M units in November 2025 (-5.2% YoY), with retail sales at 1.06M units (-4.8% YoY), reflecting continued payback from September’s EV pull-ahead ahead of expiring tax credits.
- Total SAAR is expected at 15.4M units (Nov 2024: 16.6M), while retail SAAR is projected at 12.5M (Nov 2024: 13.4M), showing a slower underlying sales pace.
- EV retail share is forecast at 6.0% (Sep: 12.9%; Nov 2024: 9.6%), while ICE share rises 2.3 ppt YoY to 77.5%, indicating a significant shift back toward conventional vehicles.
- Average transaction prices are expected at $46,029 (+1.6% YoY), and average monthly finance payments at $760 (+$19 YoY), highlighting ongoing affordability pressures.
- Incentive spending averages $3,211 (-$125 YoY), with EV discounts at $11,869 (+$260 YoY) and non-EV discounts at $2,960 (+$161 YoY), showing diverging pricing strategies.
- Fleet sales are projected at 197,358 units (-7.5% YoY), representing 15.7% of total sales (-0.4 ppt YoY).
- Retail inventory rises to 2.29M units (+11.7% YoY), equal to 64 days of supply (+5 days YoY), signaling gradually improving availability.
- Used-vehicle prices average $29,696 (+$725 YoY), while average trade-in equity dips to $7,822 (-$111 YoY), with negative equity rising to 26.9% (+3.3 ppt YoY).
- Retail buyers are expected to spend $46.8B on new vehicles (-6.4% YoY), while retailer profit per unit edges up to $2,161 (+$6 YoY).
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U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast at 1.25M units in October 2025 (-6.9% YoY), with retail sales at 1.05M units (-5.9% YoY), reflecting a sharp pullback following last month’s EV-driven surge from pre-expiration tax credit purchases.
- The total SAAR is expected at 15.1M units (Sep: 16.3M; Oct 2024: 16.2M), while retail SAAR is 12.7M (Sep: 14.1M; Oct 2024: 13.5M).
- EVs are projected to account for just 5.2% of retail sales, down -7.7 ppt MoM and -3.4 ppt YoY, reversing September’s pre-credit pull-forward; ICE share rose to 79.2% (+2.4 ppt YoY).
- Fleet sales are forecast at 198K units (-12.1% YoY), representing 15.9% of total sales (-0.9 ppt YoY).
- Average retail transaction price rose +2.2% YoY to $46,057, while incentive spending fell -$444 YoY to $2,674 (5.3% of MSRP, -1 ppt YoY).
- EV discounts averaged $13,161 (+$2,211 YoY), partially offsetting the loss of the federal credit; non-EV incentives fell to $2,423 (-$282 YoY).
- Average monthly finance payments reached $758 (+$21 YoY), while average loan rates eased slightly to 6.56% (-14 bps YoY).
- Retail inventory rose +11.5% YoY to 2.27M units, equal to 61 days of supply (up from 59 days).
- Used-vehicle prices averaged $29,446 (+$473 YoY), and average trade-in equity rose to $8,378 (+$386 YoY), though 26.6% of trade-ins carried negative equity (+2.2 ppt YoY).
- Total consumer spending on new vehicles is expected at $46.1B (-4.2% YoY), while total retailer profit per unit rose to $2,295 (+$97 YoY).
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US new-vehicle sales are projected at 1.23 million units in September 2025 (+0.1% YoY; SAAR: 16.2 million), with retail sales at 1.03 million (+0.4% YoY), reflecting steady demand supported by EV purchases ahead of tax credit expiration.
- EVs are expected to account for 12.2% of retail sales (+2.6 ppt YoY), with selling-day adjusted EV sales up +27.5% YoY, while non-EV sales declined -2.5% YoY.
- ICE vehicles’ share is projected at 71.7% (-4.9 ppt YoY), while HEVs rise to 12.4% (+0.7 ppt YoY) and PHEVs to 2.6% (+0.5 ppt YoY).
- Fleet sales are expected at 200,819 units (-1.5% YoY), representing 16.3% of total sales (-0.3 ppt YoY).
- Average retail transaction price is projected at $45,795 (+2.9% YoY), while incentive spending per vehicle is $3,116 (6.1% of MSRP, -0.2 ppt YoY).
- Average monthly finance payments reached $756 (+$21 YoY), the highest on record for September, with 84-month loan terms at 11.0% of sales (+1.5 ppt YoY).
- Retail inventory is estimated at 2.21 million units (+17.5% YoY), with industry days’ supply at 60 (vs 54 a year ago).
- Used-vehicle prices are trending at $29,668 (+$739 YoY), pushing average trade-in equity to $8,430 (+$534 YoY), though negative equity among trade-ins rose to 25.9% (+1.5 ppt YoY).
- Total consumer spending on new vehicles is forecast at $45 billion (+8.5% YoY), the second-highest September on record, while aggregate retailer profit is expected at $2.2 billion (+6.0% YoY).
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US new-vehicle sales are projected to rise +8.2% YoY in August 2025 to 1.48 million units (SAAR: 16.1M), while retail sales are expected to increase +7.8% YoY to 1.28 million units, supported by accelerated EV demand ahead of expiring tax credits.
- EV retail share is expected at 12.0% (vs 9.5% Aug 2024), while ICE vehicle share falls to 72.2% (-5.6 pp YoY); hybrids (HEV +2.0 pp, PHEV +0.6 pp) also gained share.
- Fleet sales are forecast at 199,854 units (+11.2% YoY), making up 13.5% of total sales (+0.4 pp YoY).
- The average transaction price is expected at $44,750, up +2.2% YoY, while average incentive spending is $3,105 per unit (+$38 YoY), equal to 6.2% of MSRP (-0.1 pp YoY).
- Retail inventory stands at 2.10M units (+18.6% YoY), with days’ supply rising to 58 (vs 51 a year ago); trucks/SUVs make up 82.0% of retail sales (+2.1 pp YoY).
- Consumers are set to spend $54.6B on new vehicles (+5.3% YoY), with average monthly finance payments at $743 (+$13 YoY) and interest rates at 6.40% (-38 bps YoY).
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US new-vehicle retail sales are projected to rise 4.1% YoY in July 2025 to 1.16 million units (SAAR: 13.4 million), while total sales are expected to increase 3.2% YoY to 1.38 million units (SAAR: 16.4 million).
- Consumers are projected to spend a record $49.8 billion on new vehicles in July, up 11.3% YoY, with the average transaction price up 2.1% YoY to $45,063.
- Fleet sales are expected to fall -0.8% YoY to 221k units, accounting for 16.0% of total sales (down from 20.0%).
- EVs are projected to make up 10.9% of retail sales (+1.6 pp YoY), while ICE vehicle share declines to 74.0% (-3.7 pp YoY).
- Incentive spending is expected to average $3,051 per unit (+$52 YoY), but as a % of MSRP, incentives slipped -0.1 pp to 6.1%.
- Average monthly finance payments rose to $742 (+$12 YoY), while the average interest rate dipped 30 bps to 6.54%.
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US new-vehicle sales are projected to rise 2.5% YoY in June 2025 to 1.25 million units (SAAR: 15.0 million), while retail sales are up 6.7% YoY to 1.02 million (SAAR: 12.4 million), despite fewer selling days and post-tariff payback effects.
- Consumers are expected to spend $45.0 billion on new vehicles in June, up 4.3% YoY, with the average transaction price at $46,233 (+3.1% YoY).
- Fleet sales are projected to fall -12.7% YoY to 231k, making up 18.5% of total sales (down from 21.7%).
- EVs are expected to make up 8.7% of retail sales (down -1.6 pp YoY), while ICE vehicles remain dominant at 75.8%.
- Average incentive spending is up to $2,727 (+$39 YoY), but as a % of MSRP, incentives declined -0.1 pp to 5.4%.
- Retail inventory rose 22.9% YoY to 2.16 million units; average days’ supply increased to 54 (from 49 last year).
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US new-vehicle retail sales are projected to rise 1.1% YoY in May 2025 to 1,235,700 units, while total sales are flat YoY at 1,489,800 units; the SAAR for total sales is expected at 15.6 million, slightly down from 15.7 million last May.
- Consumers are set to spend a record $53.8 billion on new vehicles in May (+7.0% YoY), with the average retail transaction price at $45,462 (+$649 YoY, but down -$592 from April).
- Average monthly loan payments are expected at $748 (+$21 YoY), with the average interest rate at 6.93% (-10 bps YoY).
- Fleet sales are projected to decline -7.0% YoY, making up 17.1% of total sales (down from 18.3%).
- Electrified vehicles (HEV, PHEV, EV) make up 25% of retail sales, with HEVs rising to 14.8% share (+4.3 pp YoY) and EVs falling slightly to 8.1% (-0.4 pp).
- Inventory levels are up 23.0% YoY to 2.13 million units; days of supply stands at 57 days (+7 YoY).
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Total new-vehicle sales for April 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,519,900, a 10.5% YoY increase (non-adjusted increase of 14.9% YoY).
- Retail sales of new vehicles are expected to reach 1,284,800, a 14.7% YoY increase (non-adjusted increase of 19.3% YoY).
- Fleet sales are expected to total 235,071 units in April, down 7.8% from April 2024. Fleet volume is expected to account for 15.5% of total light-vehicle sales, down 3.1 percentage points from a year ago.
- U.S. final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 51.8% of sales in April, unchanged from a year ago.
- Retail inventory levels are currently at 2.15 million units, a 21.4% increase from April 2024.
- The industry’s inventory days of supply is at 63 days in April, up 7 days from a year ago.
- The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in April is expected to reach $45,764, up $887 from April 2024. Transaction price as a percentage of MSRP held steady at 91.3%, which is flat from a year ago.
- Retail buyers are on pace to spend $55.8 billion on new vehicles, up $9.8 billion from April 2024.
- J.D. Power: “April results are dominated by the prospect of future vehicle price increases due to tariffs. Beginning at the end of March, and continuing through April, consumers have been accelerating their vehicle purchases under the expectation that prices will rise soon. In fact, an extra 83,000 sales in March and 139,000 in April have occurred due to accelerated vehicle purchases.”
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J.D. Power Automotive Forecast: March 2025 2025-03-26 10:00