ISM Manufacturing PMI

Data Industry PMI

Source: Institute of Supply Management
Source Link: https://www.ismworld.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): December 1st, 2025 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell -0.4 pts to 48.7 in October 2025, marking a faster contraction while the broader economy continued to expand.
- New Orders rose to 49.4 from 48.9 but stayed in contraction, indicating demand remains soft despite a slight improvement.
- Production dropped to 48.2 from 51.0, pointing to a return to declining output after one month of growth.
- Employment edged up to 46.0 from 45.3 yet remained below 50, showing continued head count reductions.
- Prices eased to 58.0 from 61.9 but still indicated rising input costs for a 13th straight month.
- Supplier Deliveries lengthened to 54.2 from 52.6, the third month of slower deliveries, consistent with ongoing supply frictions.
- Inventories fell to 45.8 from 47.7, signaling a faster pace of stock drawdown at manufacturers.
- Backlog of Orders improved to 47.9 from 46.2 but stayed in contraction, suggesting brief gains have not translated into sustained growth.
- New Export Orders rose to 44.5 from 43.0 and Imports to 45.4 from 44.7, both still contracting, reflecting weak external trade flows.
- Customers’ Inventories were 43.9, little changed from 43.7, remaining in too low territory, which can be supportive for future production.
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The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 points to 49.1 in September 2025, remaining in contraction for a seventh straight month but signaling a slightly slower pace of decline.
- New orders fell by 2.5 points to 48.9, returning to contraction after one month of expansion and pointing to weaker near-term demand.
- Production increased by 3.2 points to 51.0, moving back into growth and marking one of the few areas of strength.
- Employment rose by 1.5 points to 45.3, but it continued to contract for the eighth consecutive month as firms reduced head counts.
- Supplier deliveries rose by 1.3 points to 52.6, indicating that delivery times lengthened for the second month in a row.
- Inventories decreased by 1.7 points to 47.7, showing a faster pace of contraction, while customers’ inventories slipped by 0.9 points to 43.7 and remained in “too low” territory for the twelfth straight month.
- Prices fell by 1.8 points to 61.9, but they continued to increase overall for a twelfth consecutive month, led by metals and tariff-related cost pressures.
- Backlogs of orders rose by 1.5 points to 46.2, yet they contracted for the thirty-sixth straight month.
- New export orders dropped sharply by 4.6 points to 43.0, marking a seventh consecutive contraction and reflecting weaker overseas demand.
- Imports fell by 1.3 points to 44.7, extending their contraction for a sixth month in line with softer demand.
- Overall, the PMI result suggests that the manufacturing sector remains under pressure, but the report also noted that the broader US economy continued to grow for a sixty-fifth straight month.
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The ISM Manufacturing PMI presented a more negative view of the US manufacturing sector in August. The headline index increased 0.7 pts but remained in contraction territory for the 6th straight month at 48.7. This was slightly below consensus expectations of 49.0. Like the S&P data, the ISM data pointed to a sector heavily impacted by tariffs, with diverging performance between local and foreign markets.

The two biggest movers in August were the New Orders index, up 4.3 pts to 51.4, and the Production index, down -3.6 pts to 47.8. Interestingly, the indexes appeared to have flipped such that demand went from a moderate contraction to a slight gain, and supply flipped from a marginal gain to a decline. The New Export Orders index increased 1.5 pts in August, but remained in a moderate decline, suggesting that the noted improvement in demand is primarily related to domestic markets.

The tariff impacts show in the indexes tracking imports and prices. The Import index declined -1.6 pts to 46.0 as the subindex gave back some of the post “Liberation Day” rebound gains. In fact, with the exception of the May reading of 39.9, the August import indicator is the lowest since December 2022. It is very possible that the Import index will continue to decline as tariff policy becomes more entrenched and firms move past the inventory-building phase. The Price index has also reacted sharply to tariffs. While it did drop -1.1 pts in August, it remains elevated at 63.7, reflecting price pressures seen during the supply chain crunch of 2022-2023. In this subindex measuring inflationary pressures, the ISM survey is very similar to the S&P survey, such that both are pointing to a highly inflationary environment.

While there are similarities between the two surveys, there are some notable differences. The S&P survey showed evidence of inventory building by manufacturing firms in August, such that it was a major component of the strength in operating conditions. The ISM survey pointed to the opposite trend: the Inventories index was at 49.4, a slight contraction, and the Customers’ Inventories index eased to 44.6, an even deeper deterioration. Another key difference was in the employment measures. While the S&P PMI pointed to strong hiring trends, the ISM Employment index remained at a low 43.8, demonstrating a solid contraction in the manufacturing workforce not seen since Q3 2024 (when the Fed cut by 50 bps).

Overall, the ISM data is a more pessimistic view of the US manufacturing sector, even though the primary indicator of demand flipped from contraction to expansion. Besides that, the subindexes pointed to a continued weakening in trade, both imports and exports, shrinking inventories, and a significant decline in the manufacturing workforce. While this is all developing, tariffs are keeping price pressures high to make for a complicated environment for manufacturers.

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The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell -1.0 pt to 48.0 in July, marking a fifth straight month of contraction and highlighting broad weakness across the sector.
- Production rose +1.1 pts to 51.4, extending its modest expansion despite weak demand.
- Employment dropped -1.6 pts to 43.4, a sixth consecutive contraction and reflecting ongoing layoffs.
- Supplier Deliveries fell sharply by -4.9 pts to 49.3, signaling faster deliveries amid easing supply chain strain and weaker demand.
- Prices decreased -4.9 pts to 64.8, though still in expansion, as input cost inflation moderated but remained elevated due to aluminum and tariff effects.
- New Orders edged up +0.7 pts to 47.1, still in contraction for a sixth month, reflecting continued uncertainty from tariffs and weak buyer confidence.
- The Import and Export indexes were both mostly unchanged, remaining in contraction at 47.6 and 46.1, respectively.
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The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 pts to 49.0 in June, remaining in contraction for a fourth consecutive month, though signaling slower deterioration and a continued expansion of the broader economy.
- Production jumped 4.9 pts to 50.3, returning to expansion for the first time in four months.
- New Orders declined -1.2 pts to 46.4, marking a fifth straight month of contraction and ongoing weak demand.
- Employment fell -1.8 pts to 45.0, deepening contraction as layoffs accelerate.
- The Prices Index remained elevated, rising 0.3 pts to 69.7, with 45.6% of firms reporting higher prices.
- Supplier Deliveries fell -1.9 pts to 54.2, indicating slower but improving delivery performance amid easing port congestion.
- Inventories rose 2.5 pts to 49.2, contracting at a slower pace after tariff-related drawdowns.
- The New Export Orders (up 6.2 pts to 46.3) and Imports (up 7.5 pts to 47.4) indexes bounced back as trade dynamics improved while tariffs were paused.
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The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell -0.2 pts to 48.5 (vs 49.5 expected) in May, remaining in contraction for a third straight month and marking the lowest reading since November 2024.
- Production rose 1.4 pts to 45.4 but remained in contraction, while New Orders improved 0.4 pts to 47.6 with ongoing weakness in demand.
- Inventories fell sharply, down -4.1 pts to 46.7, as companies completed tariff-driven stockpiling.
- New Export Orders dropped -3.0 pts to 40.1, the lowest since the pandemic excluding COVID-19, due to weak overseas demand and retaliatory tariffs.
- The Imports Index crashed -7.2 pts to 39.9, the lowest reading since the Global Financial Crisis.
- The Prices Index eased slightly to 69.4 (-0.4 pts), but remains elevated amid higher steel, aluminum, and tariff-related input costs.
- Supplier Deliveries increased to 56.1 (+0.9 pts), indicating slower deliveries amid strained logistics and pricing disputes.
- Despite manufacturing contraction, the overall economy was estimated to be growing for the 61st consecutive month.
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Like the S&P report, the ISM Manufacturing PMI did not move much, down just -0.3 pts to 48.7 in April, which was a smaller decline than the consensus forecast of a drop to 48.0. Unlike the S&P report, the ISM data suggested that the manufacturing sector was in a slight contraction for the second straight month. The details of the report were mixed and did not show industrial capitulation:
- The New Order index bounced back in April, rising 2.0 pts to 47.2, after a sharp decline of -3.4 pts to 45.2 in March. Despite that, tariffs have resulted in three straight months of declining demand. While the general new order index rebounded, the New Export Orders index fell -6.5 pts to 43.1, the largest decline in foreign demand since the pandemic and comparable to the weakness seen during the global financial crisis. The disparity between the general and foreign orders indexes backs up the trend seen in the S&P PMI that suggested manufacturers were able to cushion the decline in export orders with firmer domestic orders.
- While the decline in demand softened, the drop in production worsened to the worst since the pandemic and the global financial crisis. 24.2% of respondents to the survey reported lower production in April, and the comments pointed to tariffs and trade uncertainty as a major reason for this. Lower production caused the growth in firms’ inventories to come close to a halt. That index fell -2.6 pts in April to 50.8, signaling meager growth.
- The ISM Employment index has been signaling a decline in staffing for three months now, but that decline softened slightly in April. The index moved up 1.8 pts to 46.5. ISM reported that “Respondents’ companies continue to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes; an approximate 1-to-1 ratio of hiring versus staff-reduction comments reflects an acceleration of head-count reductions due to the uncertain near- to mid-term demand.”
- The Prices index in the ISM report is also near multi-year highs like the subcomponent in the S&P report, adding to the March surge with an additional 0.4 pts in April for a reading of 69.4. The index is up 17.3 pts so far in 2025 suggesting that trade tensions have created conditions for higher inflation amidst rising costs for manufacturers.
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The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell -1.3 pts to 49.0 in March, below expectations of a drop to 49.5.
- The New Orders index fell -3.4 pts to 45.2, the lowest reading since May 2023, and the Production index fell -2.4 pts to 48.3.
- The Employment index fell -2.9 pts to 44.7. Respondents’ companies continue to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes, with an approximate 1-to-1.3 ratio of hiring versus staff-reduction comments.
- The Inventories index jumped 3.5 pts to 53.4 as manufacturers built their stockpiles of goods ahead of tariff hikes.
- The Prices index also saw a large increase, up 7.0 pts to 69.4 which is the highest since June 2022, as tariffs start to work into input costs.
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The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 pts to 50.3 in February, below expectations of a 50.5 reading.
- The New Orders index dropped -6.5 pts to 48.6, and the Production index fell -1.8 pts to 50.7.
- Employment flipped back to contraction after one month of slight growth, down -2.7 pts to 47.6.
- Prices jumped 7.5 pts to 62.4, the highest since June 2022, as manufacturers see a rapid rise in costs from trade uncertainty.
- New Export Orders eased slightly, by -1.0 pts to 51.4, and Imports increased 1.5 pts to 52.6.
- The comments include six mentions of tariffs that highlight new uncertainty that the import duties will create.
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The ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped 1.7 pts to 50.9 in January, beating expectations of a slight contraction at 49.8. Both New Orders and Production were in a moderate expansion increasing 3.0 pts to 55.1 and 2.6 pts to 52.5 respectively. One of the surprises in the report was a bounce in the Employment index, up 4.9 pts to 50.3, which pointed to a slight increase in hiring and the first time that employment increased among manufacturing firms since May 2024. Healthier business conditions led to a faster increase in prices with the Prices index up 2.4 pts to 54.9, the highest since May 2024.

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The ISM Manufacturing PMI increased 0.9 pts to 49.3 in December, above expectations of a reading of 48.4 and the highest since April. The New Orders index increased to a reflect a stronger increase in demand, up 2.1 pts to 52.5. In response to a higher demand growth rate, the Production index flipped from a contraction of 46.8 in November to 50.3 in December.

The Employment index missed by a significant amount, dropping -2.8 pts to 45.3 while the consensus was that the index would stay at 48.0. The Prices index increased from a minor expansion in to a more solid expansion at 52.5, a 2.2 pt increase over November.

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