ISM Manufacturing PMI

Data Industry PMI

Source: Institute of Supply Management
Source Link: https://www.ismworld.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): September 1st, 2025 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell -1.0 pt to 48.0 in July, marking a fifth straight month of contraction and highlighting broad weakness across the sector.
- Production rose +1.1 pts to 51.4, extending its modest expansion despite weak demand.
- Employment dropped -1.6 pts to 43.4, a sixth consecutive contraction and reflecting ongoing layoffs.
- Supplier Deliveries fell sharply by -4.9 pts to 49.3, signaling faster deliveries amid easing supply chain strain and weaker demand.
- Prices decreased -4.9 pts to 64.8, though still in expansion, as input cost inflation moderated but remained elevated due to aluminum and tariff effects.
- New Orders edged up +0.7 pts to 47.1, still in contraction for a sixth month, reflecting continued uncertainty from tariffs and weak buyer confidence.
- The Import and Export indexes were both mostly unchanged, remaining in contraction at 47.6 and 46.1, respectively.
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The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 pts to 49.0 in June, remaining in contraction for a fourth consecutive month, though signaling slower deterioration and a continued expansion of the broader economy.
- Production jumped 4.9 pts to 50.3, returning to expansion for the first time in four months.
- New Orders declined -1.2 pts to 46.4, marking a fifth straight month of contraction and ongoing weak demand.
- Employment fell -1.8 pts to 45.0, deepening contraction as layoffs accelerate.
- The Prices Index remained elevated, rising 0.3 pts to 69.7, with 45.6% of firms reporting higher prices.
- Supplier Deliveries fell -1.9 pts to 54.2, indicating slower but improving delivery performance amid easing port congestion.
- Inventories rose 2.5 pts to 49.2, contracting at a slower pace after tariff-related drawdowns.
- The New Export Orders (up 6.2 pts to 46.3) and Imports (up 7.5 pts to 47.4) indexes bounced back as trade dynamics improved while tariffs were paused.
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The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell -0.2 pts to 48.5 (vs 49.5 expected) in May, remaining in contraction for a third straight month and marking the lowest reading since November 2024.
- Production rose 1.4 pts to 45.4 but remained in contraction, while New Orders improved 0.4 pts to 47.6 with ongoing weakness in demand.
- Inventories fell sharply, down -4.1 pts to 46.7, as companies completed tariff-driven stockpiling.
- New Export Orders dropped -3.0 pts to 40.1, the lowest since the pandemic excluding COVID-19, due to weak overseas demand and retaliatory tariffs.
- The Imports Index crashed -7.2 pts to 39.9, the lowest reading since the Global Financial Crisis.
- The Prices Index eased slightly to 69.4 (-0.4 pts), but remains elevated amid higher steel, aluminum, and tariff-related input costs.
- Supplier Deliveries increased to 56.1 (+0.9 pts), indicating slower deliveries amid strained logistics and pricing disputes.
- Despite manufacturing contraction, the overall economy was estimated to be growing for the 61st consecutive month.
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Like the S&P report, the ISM Manufacturing PMI did not move much, down just -0.3 pts to 48.7 in April, which was a smaller decline than the consensus forecast of a drop to 48.0. Unlike the S&P report, the ISM data suggested that the manufacturing sector was in a slight contraction for the second straight month. The details of the report were mixed and did not show industrial capitulation:
- The New Order index bounced back in April, rising 2.0 pts to 47.2, after a sharp decline of -3.4 pts to 45.2 in March. Despite that, tariffs have resulted in three straight months of declining demand. While the general new order index rebounded, the New Export Orders index fell -6.5 pts to 43.1, the largest decline in foreign demand since the pandemic and comparable to the weakness seen during the global financial crisis. The disparity between the general and foreign orders indexes backs up the trend seen in the S&P PMI that suggested manufacturers were able to cushion the decline in export orders with firmer domestic orders.
- While the decline in demand softened, the drop in production worsened to the worst since the pandemic and the global financial crisis. 24.2% of respondents to the survey reported lower production in April, and the comments pointed to tariffs and trade uncertainty as a major reason for this. Lower production caused the growth in firms’ inventories to come close to a halt. That index fell -2.6 pts in April to 50.8, signaling meager growth.
- The ISM Employment index has been signaling a decline in staffing for three months now, but that decline softened slightly in April. The index moved up 1.8 pts to 46.5. ISM reported that “Respondents’ companies continue to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes; an approximate 1-to-1 ratio of hiring versus staff-reduction comments reflects an acceleration of head-count reductions due to the uncertain near- to mid-term demand.”
- The Prices index in the ISM report is also near multi-year highs like the subcomponent in the S&P report, adding to the March surge with an additional 0.4 pts in April for a reading of 69.4. The index is up 17.3 pts so far in 2025 suggesting that trade tensions have created conditions for higher inflation amidst rising costs for manufacturers.
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The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell -1.3 pts to 49.0 in March, below expectations of a drop to 49.5.
- The New Orders index fell -3.4 pts to 45.2, the lowest reading since May 2023, and the Production index fell -2.4 pts to 48.3.
- The Employment index fell -2.9 pts to 44.7. Respondents’ companies continue to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes, with an approximate 1-to-1.3 ratio of hiring versus staff-reduction comments.
- The Inventories index jumped 3.5 pts to 53.4 as manufacturers built their stockpiles of goods ahead of tariff hikes.
- The Prices index also saw a large increase, up 7.0 pts to 69.4 which is the highest since June 2022, as tariffs start to work into input costs.
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The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 pts to 50.3 in February, below expectations of a 50.5 reading.
- The New Orders index dropped -6.5 pts to 48.6, and the Production index fell -1.8 pts to 50.7.
- Employment flipped back to contraction after one month of slight growth, down -2.7 pts to 47.6.
- Prices jumped 7.5 pts to 62.4, the highest since June 2022, as manufacturers see a rapid rise in costs from trade uncertainty.
- New Export Orders eased slightly, by -1.0 pts to 51.4, and Imports increased 1.5 pts to 52.6.
- The comments include six mentions of tariffs that highlight new uncertainty that the import duties will create.
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The ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped 1.7 pts to 50.9 in January, beating expectations of a slight contraction at 49.8. Both New Orders and Production were in a moderate expansion increasing 3.0 pts to 55.1 and 2.6 pts to 52.5 respectively. One of the surprises in the report was a bounce in the Employment index, up 4.9 pts to 50.3, which pointed to a slight increase in hiring and the first time that employment increased among manufacturing firms since May 2024. Healthier business conditions led to a faster increase in prices with the Prices index up 2.4 pts to 54.9, the highest since May 2024.

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The ISM Manufacturing PMI increased 0.9 pts to 49.3 in December, above expectations of a reading of 48.4 and the highest since April. The New Orders index increased to a reflect a stronger increase in demand, up 2.1 pts to 52.5. In response to a higher demand growth rate, the Production index flipped from a contraction of 46.8 in November to 50.3 in December.

The Employment index missed by a significant amount, dropping -2.8 pts to 45.3 while the consensus was that the index would stay at 48.0. The Prices index increased from a minor expansion in to a more solid expansion at 52.5, a 2.2 pt increase over November.

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