Investment Manager Index

Data Markets

Source: S&P Global
Source Link: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): October 9th, 2025 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

The S&P Global Investment Manager Index Risk Appetite Index fell to -26% in September 2025 from -20% in August, its lowest since April, signaling heightened equity investor risk aversion despite easing recession fears.
- Near-term equity return expectations dropped to the lowest level since the survey began in October 2020, contrasting with optimism seen at the start of 2025.
- Valuation concerns reached unprecedented levels in the survey, while political uncertainty intensified to the highest since June, both acting as major drags on sentiment.
- The macro environment was viewed as increasingly negative, but worries specific to the US economy and fiscal policy moderated; US growth expectations improved modestly.
- Monetary policy shifted to being the strongest perceived driver of markets, reflecting conviction that the FOMC will cut rates more aggressively in late 2025.
- Lower rate expectations did not improve equity fundamentals, as earnings prospects were seen deteriorating; shareholder returns were viewed more positively in contrast.
- Sector preferences tilted defensive: healthcare ranked highest, followed by financials and utilities, while consumer discretionary remained weakest amid household spending concerns.
- Negative sentiment toward real estate, energy, materials, and staples moderated, while tech remained favored but saw appetite fall to its lowest since April due to valuation worries.
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The S&P Global Investment Manager Index Risk Appetite Index fell to -20% in August 2025 from +12% in July, marking the lowest reading since April and signaling a return to risk aversion amid heightened macro and political concerns.
- Valuations remained the largest drag on equities, while concerns over the US and global macro environment intensified due to higher tariffs and trade uncertainty.
- Near-term US equity return expectations fell to the lowest since April, though earnings expectations have improved since last quarter.
- Financials remained the most favored sector, followed by communication services and IT, though bullish sentiment toward both financials and IT moderated; utilities and consumer staples gained defensively.
- Consumer discretionary remained the least favored sector, with bearish sentiment deepening from July.
- ESG issues saw reduced importance overall, with diversity, climate, and labor standards losing influence on investment decisions.
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The S&P Global IMI Risk Appetite Index rose from -13% in June to +12% in July, marking the first positive reading since January and signaling a return of risk appetite among equity investors.
- Equities are now the most favored asset class globally, followed by commodities and corporate credit, while sentiment toward sovereign debt has worsened.
- Investor optimism is strongest for EU and Asia ex-Japan equities, with the US outlook still lagging due to geopolitical risk concerns.
- Financials and tech are the most favored sectors, with industrials and communications also seeing improved sentiment; basic materials and healthcare returned to favor.
- Investor concerns over valuations and the political environment persist, but macroeconomic and fiscal drags have eased notably since earlier in the year.
- The US remains a top perceived source of geopolitical risk in 2025, second only to China.
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The S&P IMI Risk Appetite Index improved from -19% in May to -13% in June, meaning that investor risk appetite remains heavily risk averse but to the smallest degree since January.
- The S&P 500 is expected to rise only 2% YoY by year-end, following gains of 24% and 23% in 2023 and 2024.
- Political environment, valuations, and fiscal concerns (esp. deficit) remain the top drags on equity sentiment.
- 54% of investors expect the Fed to cut rates by up to 50 bps in H2 2025, but only 2% foresee a rate hike.
- Sector outlooks favor tech, communication services, and defensive names (utilities, staples, financials), while real estate, consumer discretionary, energy, and now healthcare are out of favor.
- The dollar outlook is at its most bearish since late 2022, reflecting increased recession concerns and political instability.
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The Risk Appetite Index improved from -31% in April to -19% in May meaning that investor risk appetite remains heavily risk averse but to the smallest degree since January.
- Concerns about US political and macroeconomic environments dominate, alongside worries over valuations, fiscal policy, and the global economy.
- Worries grow over equity fundamentals amid lower earnings expectations.
- Sector preferences remain defensive and energy sector sentiment hits its lowest since 2020, but tech interest rallies.
- The May survey indicates that investors have revised down their expectations of next quarter’s earnings to an extent not seen since late 2022.
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The S&P Investment Manager Index’s (IMI) Risk Appetite Index remained near March’s 22-month low at -31% in April.
- This pessimism was evident even though most responses were collected before the reciprocal tariffs were announced.
- The political and macro environments remain the most negative factors impacting sentiment.
- The adverse impact of politics on equities is now running at its highest for just over three years.
- Only shareholder returns and central bank policy (marginally) are positive factors.
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Investment Manager Index: March 2025

The Investment Manager Index crashed from -27% in February to -32% in March, the lowest since data was first collected in October 2020.
- The US macro environment and fiscal policy have shifted strongly against market sentiment.
- High valuations are still the largest headwind to market returns despite equity fundamentals being a neutral factor.
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The IMI Risk Appetite Index fell from 41% in December to just 15% in January. December’s reading was a 44-month high and a result of the reaction to the election results.

Macro and fundamentals are expected to continue to drive equity gains while the change in Fed policy has become a major headwind following the December meeting. The political environment shifted to a positive influence in December, the first time in 44 months, before switching back to negative in January.

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