IATA Air Cargo Market Analysis

Data Transportation

Source: IATA
Source Link: https://www.iata.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): December 30th, 2025 9:30 AM

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for October 2025 global air cargo markets showing:
- Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 4.1% compared to October 2024 levels (+4.8% for international operations).
- Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 5.1% compared to October 2024 (+6.4% for international operations).
“Air cargo demand grew 4.1% year-on-year in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion and setting a new monthly record for volumes. While the Asia-North America trade lane extended its contraction to six months, October saw double-digit or near double-digit growth within Asia, between the Middle East and Europe, and between Europe and Asia. This shifting growth pattern shows that air cargo is enabling global supply chains to adapt to the impact of US tariffs. This positive news is especially significant as the air cargo sector enters the peak fourth quarter shipping season,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- The global goods trade grew by 5.3% year-on-year in September.
- Global industrial production rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, the fastest pace since March 2025 and the strongest monthly reading since late 2022.
- Jet fuel prices increased 2.5% in October even as crude fell, with a tightening diesel market driving the jet crack spread to nearly double last year’s level.
- Global manufacturing sentiment strengthened slightly in October, with the PMI rising for the third consecutive month to reach 51.45. New export orders deteriorated slightly to 48.31, remaining below the 50-point expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing caution amid tariff uncertainty.
Source
- Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 2.9% compared to September 2024 levels (+3.2% for international operations).
- Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 3.0% compared to September 2024 (+4.4% for international operations).
“Air cargo demand grew 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of overall growth. Buried in that growth is a significant alteration of trade patterns as US tariff policies, including the ending of de minimis exemptions, kick in. On one side of the equation, a decline in North America-Asia demand has set in over the last five months. But this has been more than compensated for with strong growth within Asia and on routes linking Asia to Europe, Africa and the Middle East. While many had feared an unwinding of global trade, we are instead seeing air cargo adapting successfully to serve shifting market demands,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- The global goods trade grew by 3.7% year-on-year in August.
- Jet fuel prices rose 5.4% in September despite lower oil prices, driven by a tighter diesel market, which doubled the crack spread year-on-year.
- Global manufacturing sentiment strengthened in September, with the PMI rising for the second straight month to reach 51.3. New export orders improved slightly to 49.6 but remained below the 50-point expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing caution amid tariff uncertainty.
Source
- Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 4.1% compared to August 2024 levels (+5.1% for international operations).
- Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 3.7% compared to August 2024 (+5.5% for international operations).
“Air cargo demand grew 4.1% in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year growth. Volumes continue to grow even as global trade patterns change. Air cargo has benefitted from a shift from sea for some high value goods as shippers try to minimize the risk of tariff changes. And growth patterns indicate some being diverted away from North America, fueling stronger growth for the Europe–Asia, Within Asia, Africa–Asia, and Middle East–Asia trade lanes. This adaptability is vital as shippers navigate the evolving landscape of US tariff policy,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- The global goods trade grew by 5.4% year-on-year in July.
- Jet fuel prices in August were 6.4% lower year-on-year, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of year-on-year declines.
- Global manufacturing in August showed rising optimism in manufacturing PMI, with a rebound to 51.75, the strongest reading since June 2024. Sentiment on new export orders, however, remains below 50 at 48.73, reflecting persistent caution amid tariff uncertainty.
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