GfK Germany Consumer Climate

Data Macro

Source: GfK
Source Link: https://nielseniq.com/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): September 25th, 2025 2:00 AM

Latest Updates

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is forecast to fall -1.9 pts to -23.6 in September 2025 (from -21.7), marking a third straight monthly decline amid weakening income and economic expectations.
- Income expectations dropped -11.1 pts to 4.1, the lowest since March 2025, reflecting rising fears of unemployment and job insecurity.
- Economic expectations fell -10.1 pts to -7.4, their lowest in six months, as concerns over tariffs, inflation, and weak domestic momentum grew.
- Willingness to buy edged down -0.9 pts to -10.1, remaining near rock-bottom levels last seen in February 2025.
- The savings indicator slipped slightly to 15.8 (from 16.4), but remained elevated, signaling continued consumer caution.
- Inflation expectations rose for a second month, reflecting geopolitical risks and concerns over higher energy prices.
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Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is forecast to decline -1.2 pts to -21.5 in August 2025 (from -20.3), marking a second straight monthly drop as saving behavior rises and willingness to buy weakens.
- The savings indicator rose +2.5 pts to 16.4, a 17-month high, reflecting persistent uncertainty and caution.
- Income expectations increased +2.4 pts to 15.2, the fifth monthly rise, amid falling inflation (now at 2.0%) and solid wage/pension growth.
- Willingness to buy dropped -3.0 pts to -9.2, the lowest since February, as consumers remain hesitant despite better income prospects.
- Economic expectations plunged -10.0 pts to 10.1, ending a 5-month streak of gains, as concern over US tariffs and weak visibility clouds outlook.
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Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is forecast to edge down -0.3 pts to -20.3 in July 2025, ending a three-month improvement streak, as increased savings dampen consumer sentiment.
- The June rise to -19.9 was revised down slightly to -20.0.
- The savings willingness index rose +3.9 pts to 13.9, its highest level in over a year, reflecting persistent uncertainty.
- Income expectations improved +2.4 pts to 12.8, supported by wage gains and upcoming pension increases.
- Economic expectations jumped +7.0 pts to 20.1, the highest since February 2022, amid optimism over fiscal stimulus and GDP growth forecasts.
- Willingness to buy remained weak, up just +0.2 pts to -6.2, as geopolitical and trade uncertainties continue to weigh on consumer spending.
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Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is projected to rise by 0.9 pts to -19.9 in June (up from a downwardly revised May reading of -20.8), the highest since November 2024, but still at a low level.
- Income expectations rose 6.1 pts to 10.4, the highest since October 2024, supported by solid wage deals and easing inflation (2.1% in April).
- Economic expectations climbed 5.9 pts to 13.1, marking the fourth straight monthly gain and the highest since April 2023.
- Willingness to buy declined -1.5 pts to -6.4, reflecting consumer caution despite improved income prospects.
- Savings willingness increased 1.6 pts to 10.0, suggesting a continued preference for caution amid trade and labor market uncertainty.
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The GfK Germany Consumer Climate Indicator is projected to rise by 3.7 pts to -20.6 in May, up from a revised -24.3 in April and above expectations of a -26 reading.
- Savings indicator fell by -5.4 pts to 8.4 in April, after two months of increases.
- Income expectations rose 7.4 pts to 4.3 in April, the highest since October 2024, but down -6.4 pts YoY.
- Willingness to buy increased by 3.3 pts to -4.9, improving 7.7 pts YoY but still at a low level.
- Economic expectations rose slightly by 0.3 pts to 7.2, up 6.5 pts YoY, despite ongoing recession concerns.
- Inflation is expected to remain just over 2%, while collective bargaining agreements are set to boost public sector wages by 3% starting April 1, 2025.
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The GfK Germany Consumer Climate Indicator is projected to rise by 0.1 pts to -24.5 in April, after a revised -24.6 reading in March. This is below expectations of an increase to -23.
- Savings indicator increased by 4.4 pts to 13.8, the highest level since April 2024, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
- Income expectations rose 2.3 pts to -3.1 in March, though still 1.6 pts below YoY levels.
- Willingness to buy improved by 2.9 pts to -8.2, standing 7 pts higher YoY but remaining below pandemic lockdown levels.
- Economic expectations saw a notable gain, rising 5.7 pts to 6.9, the highest since April 2024.
- It remains to be seen whether these consumer hopes for a revival of the German economy are realistic. This will also depend on whether the recently agreed financial package is implemented quickly and in a targeted manner.
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The GfK Germany Consumer Climate Indicator fell from -21.4 in January to -22.6 in February, slightly lower than the predicted -22.4 in last month’s release.
- March is expected to see another decline in sentiment with a forecasted drop of -2.1 pts to -24.7 (below analyst’s projection of -21.4). This would be the lowest since April 2024.
- Income expectations fell to a 13-month low in February, down -4.3 pts to -5.4.
- Lower income expectations pushed the willingness to buy index down -2.7 pts to -11.1.
- Despite these weak readings, Consumers’ economic outlook improved 2.8 pts to 1.2.
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The GfK Consumer Climate indicator was -21.4 in January, up from -23.1 in December. The forecast for the indicator in February is -22.4, a -1.0 pt drop from the current reading. The sub-indicators showed negative movements across most measures:
- Economic Expectations declined by 1.9 pts to -1.6 pts, reversing the slight improvement seen at the end of 2024. This decline reflects Germany's continued economic challenges, with GDP having contracted 0.2% in 2024 and growth forecasts for 2025 being revised down to around 0.5%.
- Income Expectations lost 2.5 pts, falling to -1.1 pts. This erased about half of the gains made in December 2024 (when it had gained 4.9 points). This indicator had shown two distinct phases in 2024 - a strong recovery in the first half followed by a downward trend in the second half.
- The Willingness to Buy decreased by 3 pts to -8.4 pts, reaching its lowest level since August 2024 (when it was at -10.9 pts). This decline was largely driven by the weaker income prospects and rising inflation, which reached 2.6% in December.
- In contrast to the other indicators, the Willingness to Save increased by 2.3 pts to 8.2 pts, contributing to the overall decline in consumer climate.
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German economic expectations improved 3.9 pts to 0.3 in December, the same reading as a year ago. Income expectations also increased, by 4.9 pts to 1.4, but are still lower than the summer amidst weaker growth expectations and rising unemployment expectations. Willingness to buy remained weak but improved slightly, up 0.6 pts to -5.4. Willingness to save, alternatively, dropped -6.0 pts to 5.9. The early reading of January consumer sentiment improved slightly, by 1.8 pts to -21.3, but has mostly stagnated since the middle of 2024.

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