GfK Germany Consumer Climate

Data Macro

Source: GfK
Source Link: https://www.nim.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): February 25th, 2026 2:00 AM

Latest Updates

Source
Source
Source
Source
Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index is forecast to rise to -22.3 in October 2025, up from -23.5 in September, ending a three-month decline, driven by a rebound in income expectations.
- Income expectations rose sharply to 15.1 (Aug: 4.1), the highest since early 2025, offsetting last month’s drop and providing the main lift to the headline index.
- Economic expectations fell -4.1 pts to -1.4, the lowest since January 2025, marking the third straight monthly decline and signaling weak confidence in economic recovery.
- Willingness to buy slipped -1.5 pts to -11.6, the lowest since June 2024, as high food and energy prices and geopolitical concerns limited consumer spending appetite.
- Willingness to save edged up slightly to 16.1 (Aug: 15.8), remaining elevated and reflecting ongoing caution in household finances.
- Compared with September 2024, income expectations improved (Sep 2024: 10.1), but both willingness to buy (-6.9 then vs -11.6 now) and overall consumer climate (-21.9 then vs -22.3 now) are weaker, highlighting persistent headwinds.
Source
Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is forecast to fall -1.9 pts to -23.6 in September 2025 (from -21.7), marking a third straight monthly decline amid weakening income and economic expectations.
- Income expectations dropped -11.1 pts to 4.1, the lowest since March 2025, reflecting rising fears of unemployment and job insecurity.
- Economic expectations fell -10.1 pts to -7.4, their lowest in six months, as concerns over tariffs, inflation, and weak domestic momentum grew.
- Willingness to buy edged down -0.9 pts to -10.1, remaining near rock-bottom levels last seen in February 2025.
- The savings indicator slipped slightly to 15.8 (from 16.4), but remained elevated, signaling continued consumer caution.
- Inflation expectations rose for a second month, reflecting geopolitical risks and concerns over higher energy prices.
Source
Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is forecast to decline -1.2 pts to -21.5 in August 2025 (from -20.3), marking a second straight monthly drop as saving behavior rises and willingness to buy weakens.
- The savings indicator rose +2.5 pts to 16.4, a 17-month high, reflecting persistent uncertainty and caution.
- Income expectations increased +2.4 pts to 15.2, the fifth monthly rise, amid falling inflation (now at 2.0%) and solid wage/pension growth.
- Willingness to buy dropped -3.0 pts to -9.2, the lowest since February, as consumers remain hesitant despite better income prospects.
- Economic expectations plunged -10.0 pts to 10.1, ending a 5-month streak of gains, as concern over US tariffs and weak visibility clouds outlook.
Source
Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is forecast to edge down -0.3 pts to -20.3 in July 2025, ending a three-month improvement streak, as increased savings dampen consumer sentiment.
- The June rise to -19.9 was revised down slightly to -20.0.
- The savings willingness index rose +3.9 pts to 13.9, its highest level in over a year, reflecting persistent uncertainty.
- Income expectations improved +2.4 pts to 12.8, supported by wage gains and upcoming pension increases.
- Economic expectations jumped +7.0 pts to 20.1, the highest since February 2022, amid optimism over fiscal stimulus and GDP growth forecasts.
- Willingness to buy remained weak, up just +0.2 pts to -6.2, as geopolitical and trade uncertainties continue to weigh on consumer spending.
Source
Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is projected to rise by 0.9 pts to -19.9 in June (up from a downwardly revised May reading of -20.8), the highest since November 2024, but still at a low level.
- Income expectations rose 6.1 pts to 10.4, the highest since October 2024, supported by solid wage deals and easing inflation (2.1% in April).
- Economic expectations climbed 5.9 pts to 13.1, marking the fourth straight monthly gain and the highest since April 2023.
- Willingness to buy declined -1.5 pts to -6.4, reflecting consumer caution despite improved income prospects.
- Savings willingness increased 1.6 pts to 10.0, suggesting a continued preference for caution amid trade and labor market uncertainty.
Source
The GfK Germany Consumer Climate Indicator is projected to rise by 3.7 pts to -20.6 in May, up from a revised -24.3 in April and above expectations of a -26 reading.
- Savings indicator fell by -5.4 pts to 8.4 in April, after two months of increases.
- Income expectations rose 7.4 pts to 4.3 in April, the highest since October 2024, but down -6.4 pts YoY.
- Willingness to buy increased by 3.3 pts to -4.9, improving 7.7 pts YoY but still at a low level.
- Economic expectations rose slightly by 0.3 pts to 7.2, up 6.5 pts YoY, despite ongoing recession concerns.
- Inflation is expected to remain just over 2%, while collective bargaining agreements are set to boost public sector wages by 3% starting April 1, 2025.
Source
The GfK Germany Consumer Climate Indicator is projected to rise by 0.1 pts to -24.5 in April, after a revised -24.6 reading in March. This is below expectations of an increase to -23.
- Savings indicator increased by 4.4 pts to 13.8, the highest level since April 2024, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
- Income expectations rose 2.3 pts to -3.1 in March, though still 1.6 pts below YoY levels.
- Willingness to buy improved by 2.9 pts to -8.2, standing 7 pts higher YoY but remaining below pandemic lockdown levels.
- Economic expectations saw a notable gain, rising 5.7 pts to 6.9, the highest since April 2024.
- It remains to be seen whether these consumer hopes for a revival of the German economy are realistic. This will also depend on whether the recently agreed financial package is implemented quickly and in a targeted manner.
Source
The GfK Germany Consumer Climate Indicator fell from -21.4 in January to -22.6 in February, slightly lower than the predicted -22.4 in last month’s release.
- March is expected to see another decline in sentiment with a forecasted drop of -2.1 pts to -24.7 (below analyst’s projection of -21.4). This would be the lowest since April 2024.
- Income expectations fell to a 13-month low in February, down -4.3 pts to -5.4.
- Lower income expectations pushed the willingness to buy index down -2.7 pts to -11.1.
- Despite these weak readings, Consumers’ economic outlook improved 2.8 pts to 1.2.
Source