Latest Updates

• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of August 26th 2025-08-26 12:00

  

  Analysis

  Even as the tariff landscape on the country level seems to be solidifying, trade probes on specific goods like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber – including furniture – requested by President Trump earlier in the year are now concluded or nearing completion, and could mean additional sectoral tariffs soon. 

  For some countries that have reached trade agreements with the US, tariffs meant to be reduced or removed on many types of goods are still being collected as implementation conditions still need to be fulfilled or details of the deals are still being hammered out. These implementation lags mean it will take longer to see if the tariff changes impact freight volumes and rates.

  China is sending a top trade negotiator to Washington following the recently-announced 90-day extension of 30% baseline US tariffs on Chinese exports first rolled out in May. Though there are some reports of some increase in China-US ocean demand since the extension announcement, overall volumes and rates – helped on by growing capacity levels – continue to trend downward. 

  Transpacific container arrivals likely peaked in July, as many peak season shipments were pulled forward to beat the August China-US tariff expiration date. Asia - N. America spot rates have fallen 60% - 70% in an almost uninterrupted slide since that early rush. Rates to the West Coast decreased 10% to $1,744/FEU last week – the lowest level for this lane since December 2023. East Coast prices fell 21% to $2,733/FEU for a 34% slide so far in August.

  Transatlantic rates were level at $2,284/FEU last week, and though not much freight impact is expected from the recent US - EU trade deal, auto tariff reductions have yet to take effect, and so far alcohol exports will not be exempted. In other trade related developments, carriers are continuing to adjust services and shift vessels to minimize exposure to US port call fees for Chinese vessels and operators that will start in mid-October. 

  Peak season volume strength may have peaked for Asia - Europe lanes as extended lead times from Red Sea diversions mean goods must be moved before the end of September. Even with strong demand and port congestion carriers have struggled to push rates up or keep them from falling through much of this year’s peak season. 

  Asia - N. Europe spot prices fell 6% last week to about $3,100/FEU and back to levels seen in late June. Asia - Mediterranean rates eased 1% to $3,100/FEU as well, the lowest level since late May for this trade. Prices on these lanes are 60% lower than last year, with transpacific prices 70% lower, reflecting growing overcapacity in the container market even as the new vessel orderbook size recently hit a new record.

  The US will end de minimis exemptions for all low value imports starting this Thursday. A lack of clarity as to how new tariff rules for low-value postal parcels will apply is leading several European post services to suspend handling some shipments for now.

  The White House suspended de minimis eligibility just for Chinese imports back in early May, leading to reports of as much as a 50% drop in B2C e-commerce shipments to the US from China since then. But nonetheless, overall Chinese e-commerce export volumes have continued to grow, as Chinese platforms shift their focus to other markets, especially Europe where e-commerce imports have doubled by value during this same period. The growth of e-commerce volumes from China to Europe and the UK is intensifying local opposition to competition from these types of imports, with calls for an ending of de minimis exceptions in these countries as well.

  Even with these reports of e-commerce shipment drops from China to the US and increases to Europe, air cargo rates have been stable overall, likely reflecting a significant shift of freighter capacity between markets. Freightos Air Index China - Europe rates were level at $3.52/kg last week and prices to N. America increased 2% to $5.57/kg. 
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of August 19th 2025-08-20 12:00

  

  Analysis

  When the US lowered baseline tariffs on Chinese exports from 145% to 30% in May for a period of ninety days, transpacific ocean freight demand surged and container rates soared to more than $6,000/FEU to the West Coast as shippers rushed to move goods that would make it to the US before the August expiration date. 

  A recent Freightos poll of about eighty supply chain professionals found that about half expect the White House’s recent announcement that it will extend that 30% baseline tariff for an additional ninety days to lead to another peak season bump. But the other half thinks, even with the extension, this year’s peak season is behind us – and so far container rates seem to support those expectations.

  Transpacific rates to the West Coast fell 8% last week to less than $2,000/FEU, their lowest level since the start of the Red Sea crisis. Daily rates so far this week are down to the $1,700/FEU level held just before the Houthi attacks began in late 2023. Prices to the East Coast fell 3% to $3,472/FEU last week, but are down to $2,700/FEU so far this week, also within striking distance of their pre-Red Sea levels.

  Container rates on the transpacific are falling due to tariff-driven frontloading that saw stronger than normal volumes earlier in the year and brought a brief and early peak season surge back in June. But rates falling back to levels last seen before the Red Sea crisis began – even as attacks continue – suggest that overcapacity is also playing a role in rate behavior. 

  Spot market developments for Asia - Europe trade may also support the possibility that overcapacity is already impacting rates. 

  Carriers report that Asia - Europe peak season demand is robust. But even with strong volumes, persistent congestion at several major European container hubs, and Red Sea diversions still absorbing capacity directly on this lane, container rates are 60% lower than a year ago, when the Red Sea crisis was cited as the major driver for highly elevated rates of about $7,000/FEU to Europe and $8,000/FEU to the Mediterranean. 

  As of last week, Asia - N. Europe rates were still flat at about $3,300/FEU, the peak season level they’ve held since early July. Asia - Mediterranean prices slipped to about $3,100/FEU down from a peak season high of $4,800/FEU reached in mid-June. Carriers will reduce capacity on these lanes in September to try and keep prices from easing further. 

  In air cargo, an Air Canada flight attendant strike that started over the weekend froze passenger operations and disrupted cargo flows as well. A tentative agreement between the carrier and union reached late Monday however, means operations are already gradually starting back up. 

  Freightos Air Index rate data shows air cargo prices were stable overall last week, with China - US rates up slightly to $5.44/kg, China - Europe prices dipping 4% to $3.53/kg and transatlantic rates down 2% to $1.73/kg. 
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of August 12th 2025-08-14 12:00
  

  Analysis

  US reciprocal tariffs on a long list of trading partners – including EU countries, Japan and S. Korea – went into effect last week. The administration has also extended its status quo 30% baseline tariff for all imports from China for another 90 days ending November 10th, together adding some stability in terms of tariff expectations at least into Q4 for most long haul ocean importers to the US.

  Escalating US-India tensions over President Trump’s opposition to India’s purchases of Russian oil meanwhile, led the president to introduce 25% tariffs on India’s exports and sign an executive order that will raise duties to 50% if an agreement isn’t reached before August 27th.

  In terms of ocean freight, this escalation is already leading to a drop in export orders and container demand out of India as many shippers opt to wait until the tariff dust settles.

  The US tariff clarity for European exports – especially the reduction of auto parts tariffs from 25% to 15% – may be driving some increase in transatlantic container demand as spot rates climbed 15% last week to $2,220/FEU after holding steady at the $1,900/FEU level since early May.

  Transpacific ocean rates fell 10% to both coasts last week to $2,119/FEU to the West Coast and $3,572/FEU to the East Coast. Daily rates to both coasts have stayed level since the US tariff extension for Chinese imports.

  The 30% China tariff extension may spur some peak season volume and container rate increases in the coming weeks that would not have materialized if the US had instead raised tariffs on China on August 12th. Overall though, tariff-driven frontloading by shippers in the lead up to the April and July/August tariff deadlines is likely to mean muted ocean volumes through the end of the year, with the next significant demand bump only coming ahead of next year’s Lunar New Year.

  The latest National Retail Federation US ocean volume report shows that container imports climbed to 2.2 million TEU in April, and estimates that volumes peaked at 2.3 million TEU in July, and will stay elevated at 2.2 million in August before falling sharply through the end of the year.

  While US container imports typically increase in the second half of the year, these projections have H2 volumes down 8% compared to the first half of the year, and 14% lower than the second half of last year, with anticipation that totals for September through December will be 20% lower than in 2024.

  For the year, 2025 totals are projected to be 6% lower than last year. These projections were released before the US-China tariff extension, but even so, frontloading to date as reflected in these data is still likely to mean that the rest of the year will take this general path and mean minimal if any upward pressure on rates for the rest of the year as well.

  Asia - N. Europe container rates dipped 3% to about $3,300/FEU last week to just below their level in early July despite reports of reasonable peak season volume strength and persistent port congestion. Asia - Mediterranean prices fell 4% to $3,144/FEU making eight consecutive weeks of declines. Rate behavior on these lanes – with prices 60% lower than a year ago even as Red Sea diversions continue – suggest overcapacity is already impacting container rate levels across lanes.

  For air cargo, the US-China tariff extension could mean some air cargo frontloading in late October and early November if no agreement is in place by then as the November 10th expiration would kick in just as the typical air cargo peak season would normally begin. US tariff decisions on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are expected soon, and depending on the details, could have implications for air cargo volume timing and levels for these sectors as well.

  Tariff deadlines may have contributed to the moderate increase in global air cargo volumes in July, though capacity shifts away from lanes with easing demand and to trades with increasing volumes have kept rates stable overall but lower compared to last year.

  Freightos Air Index China-US rates rebounded to $5.16/kg last week, but remain below the $5.30/kg level mostly held since mid-June, and were at about the $5.80/kg level a year ago. China - Europe prices were stable at about $3.70/kg last week compared to $3.80/kg last year. South East Asia - Europe rates climbed to $3.68/kg last week after dipping to about $2.60/kg in mid-July, and are about even year on year, with SEA - US prices of $4.83/kg 17% lower than last August.
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of August 5th 2025-08-05 12:00
  

  Analysis

  President Trump signed an executive order last week hours before the August 1st tariff deadline, that will put the administration’s reciprocal tariffs for exports from a long list of countries into effect for all goods not loaded before August 7th.

  For most countries, the order raises tariffs to about the 15% to 20% level also set in most of the negotiated trade deals – including a US agreement with South Korea that Trump announced last week – so far. Some countries like Switzerland and India, however, will face tariffs at higher levels, and continue to try and negotiate.

  Other trade war developments include Trump granting Mexico a 90-day extension of its August 1st deadline, after which 30% tariffs on Mexico’s exports would be introduced, as negotiations continue. While in a separate executive order, the president increased tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35% for all non-USMCA exports as US-Canada tensions have increased.

  The US 30% baseline tariff for China is still set to expire August 12th, and though talks last week resulted in optimism that the sides would agree to extend the status quo for another 90 days, there has been no official announcement yet.

  Finally, Trump signed a proclamation based on a Section 232 investigation into US copper imports that raised copper tariffs to 50% on August 1st, though the determination exempts refined copper from the duty. The administration’s requested Section 232 probe into semiconductors is expected to conclude in the next two weeks, and the president has also talked about implementing tariffs on pharmaceuticals through this law, though these may be farther off.

  For freight markets last week’s dramatic announcements do not appear to have had much immediate impact. A few months ago, many shippers rushed to get goods loaded between the April 2nd tariff announcement and the April 9th load-by deadline. This time around there does not seem to be much last-minute rush ahead of August 7th, possibly because frontloading to beat the original July deadline and shippers tiring of tariff-driven whiplash made this window much less urgent.

  For ocean freight, transpacific container rates to the West Coast were level at about $2,300/FEU for the third straight week last week, with daily rates since August 1st actually dipping by about $100. Prices to the East Coast fell 4% to $3,950/FEU, for the sixth consecutive week on week decrease, and have likewise continued to ease since the executive order. Transatlantic rates were level at about $1,900/FEU.

  Freightos Terminal custom port pair data likewise show sample rates to Long Beach from specific origins facing tariff increases like Vietnam and India have been about level since the 1st. One exception were prices from Indonesia, facing 19% tariffs on August 7th, which increased a moderate 8% since the announcement.

  Though a 90-day tariff extension for China could lead to some transpacific ocean demand rebound, here too frontloading to date likely means that the peak for the transpacific ocean peak season this year would still remain behind us.

  Asia - N. Europe container rates were stable last week at about $3,400/FEU and have been at about this level since early July despite reports of a relatively strong peak season and ongoing congestion. Asia - Mediterranean prices fell 4% to $3,263/FEU last week marking seven straight weeks of declines and dipping below Asia - N. Europe levels for the first time since November.

  Air cargo markets, like ocean, show little sign of any last minute push to load goods before the August 7th tariff deadline. Freightos Air Index data shows rates have gone unchanged out of most regions to the US, though prices from S. Korea to N. America have increased 11% and from LATAM 7% compared to just before the executive order.

  Last week’s presidential actions included an executive order that will close the US’s de minimis exemption to goods from all origins on August 29th. The de minimis exemption has been one key to the surge of B2C e-commerce goods entering the US mostly via air cargo for the past two years.

  The US suspended de minimis just for China starting in May, leading to a significant drop – but not collapse – of air volumes on this lane. The majority of de minimis packages entering the US in the last two years were from China, but closing the exemption for all origins on Aug 29th could mean an additional challenge for air carriers servicing the US, and for consumers and small business importers who’ve relied on this exemption.
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of July 29th 2025-07-29 12:00
  

  Analysis

  With the US’s August 1st reciprocal tariff pause expiration date days away, the White House has announced a series of last minute deals with several of its major trade partners including the EU and Japan.

  The agreement with the European Union will feature a 15% baseline US tariff on most EU exports – up from the current 10%, but down from the recently threatened 30% level. This rate will apply to automotive exports from the EU as well, which, along with all global automotive exports to the US, have faced 25% duties on vehicles and parts since April and May respectively. The pact may also include a quota-based reduction in US steel and aluminum export tariffs for the EU.

  The deal also has the EU committing to significant energy purchases from and investments in the US, and to zero or very low tariffs on most US exports. These terms should start taking effect on August 1st once a joint statement is finalized, though full details and a legally binding text will take more time.

  The US-Japan deal similarly sets US tariffs at 15%, including for automotive exports, with Japanese commitments for investment in the US. President Trump has also said that the US has agreements with Vietnam at a 20% tariff rate and with Indonesia and the Philippines at 19%. Including the earlier deal with the UK, the US now has agreements or tentative deals with countries accounting for about 30% of total 2024 US goods imports by value.

  The degree of progress on deals with the US’s three largest trade partners – Canada, Mexico and China which make up another 41% of total goods imports according to US Census data – still varies.

  Talks with Mexico and Canada – both facing August 1st 30% tariff threats – are ongoing. US and China officials are meeting in Stockholm this week ahead of an August 12th tariff deadline, and talks are expected to result in an additional 90-day extension of the trade status quo following recent progress and deescalation of tensions. US tariffs on China have been set at a 30% baseline since mid-May, with the effective rate much higher for many types of goods already facing first Trump administration tariffs.

  From a freight perspective, this year’s tumultuous mix of tariff announcements, pauses and deadlines, has disrupted typical seasonal demand and rate trends as many shippers rushed to frontload goods ahead of these deadlines or, for importers from China, paused activity when duties were sky high. The pull forward was mostly to hedge against the threat of tariffs higher than the interim 10% if negotiations failed. But the last few weeks suggest that even with deals, the US is seeking a tariff range of about 15% to 20%.

  Though importers and exporters will not be happy about the tariff increases these deals entail for most goods on these lanes, they’ll likely welcome the certainty and clarity that the agreements provide. Those with inventories elevated from frontloading may not return to typical booking patterns until necessary. After that point though, freight seasonality should return, with those higher tariff costs eventually felt by consumers.

  Transatlantic ocean freight volumes were about level with 2024 through April, though automotive tariffs that went into effect in April may have driven the 7% year on year drop that month. And tariffs on auto parts introduced in May could also explain why there did not seem to be much frontloading on the lane when reciprocal tariffs were paused from April through July.

  This week’s deal reduces automotive tariffs for EU exports by 10% and could spur some moderate rebound in volumes on this lane. The agreement’s 15% tariff level means most EU exports – though the status of wine and spirits remain unclear – are facing a 5% increase in duties compared to levels since April, and so it is unlikely to spur any sharp near term rebound. Transatlantic ocean container rates have been level at about $1,900/FEU since May.

  For transpacific ocean freight, the US’s reduction of tariffs on China from 145% to 30% in mid-May triggered an early and brief peak season surge. Asia - US West Coast rates hit a peak of $6,000/FEU by mid-June but by mid-July had fallen back to April and early May levels of about $2,300/FEU. Prices have remained unchanged since as carriers have removed capacity to meet lower volume levels, making it unlikely carriers will implement planned August GRIs.

  Another 90-day extension of the 30% baseline tariff would run through the end of the typical peak season period. This development could spur some shippers who rushed to move goods in May and June or others who were waiting for more clarity to resume peak season bookings, which could push demand and rates up somewhat. But with the significant frontloading to date, the peak of peak season is still likely behind us.

  Asia - N. Europe container rates dipped 4% last week to $3,419/FEU, about level with the start of the month but still 45% higher than at the end of May on peak season demand and persistent congestion at several of Europe’s major container hubs. This volume strength and congestion that could get worse as peak season containers continue to arrive could support PSSs of about $500/FEU planned for August by some carriers. Even so, rates that have about leveled off to Europe, and Asia - Mediterranean prices that by last week had fallen 30% from a mid-June high to $3,400/FEU – with rates for both lanes more than 55% lower than a year ago – suggest fleet growth and resulting overcapacity may already be impacting rate trends.

  Air cargo volumes out of Japan or the EU to the US could see some bump from the lower tariffs on auto parts. Overall though – as there wasn’t much last minute front loading by air ahead of the deadlines and for most trades tariffs are now higher than a week ago – the air cargo markets, like ocean freight, may not be shaken up much by the recent trade developments.

  Freightos Air Index data shows China-US rates increased 3% to $5.31/kg, about level with rates in May and June. Transatlantic prices were unchanged at $1.77/kg and China - Europe rates climbed 11% to $3.72/kg, back to levels seen in June, possibly on some moderate bump ahead of the tariff deadline.

  Source
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of July 22nd 2025-07-22 12:00
  

  Analysis

  The Trump administration’s August expiration dates for current tariff levels on many countries are rapidly approaching with little progress in trade negotiations in the last couple weeks and escalating US tensions with Mexico and the European Union. That the US reportedly intends to apply higher tariffs on transhipped goods from many countries – taking aim at the current level of China’s contributions to finished goods exported by other nations – may be another factor complicating trade talks.

  The window to ship containers that will arrive before August – even with the early July extension of the tariff expiration to August 1st – is now closed. In a recent conversation with Freightos, Steve Nguyen, Vice Director at forwarder Ring Vietnam, remarked that “demand out of Vietnam had been strong in April and May but rates and space availability had started to ease by mid-June by which point a majority of frontloading had already taken place.”

  And most signs likewise indicate that this year’s transpacific ocean peak season overall was early, brief and muted by frontloading earlier in the year by some shippers and by a wait and see approach being taken by others. Robert Khachatryan, CEO of forwarder FreightRight, shared that this paralysis may be particularly true for “small and mid-size importers who can’t easily absorb 25% to 40% tariff hikes.” These factors mean that June saw the peak season high for ocean bookings out of the Far East, and that July will be the peak for container arrivals to the US.

  Ocean rates reflect these trends as well. Mid-month July transpacific GRIs planned by many carriers did not materialize as demand eased since late June. Transpacific spot rates to the West Coast are down 60% from the $6,000/FEU high reached in mid-June to an average of $2,325/FEU last week. This rate level is about even with West Coast prices maintained in April and early May when US tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods triggered a sharp drop in demand, and are 70% lower than a year ago. The latest daily rates to the East Coast of about $4,100/FEU are 40% lower than their $7,100/FEU June peak. This price is still 20% higher than in April, but 57% lower than last July. Carriers are announcing significant blanked sailings for the remainder of July and for August in hopes of stabilizing sliding rates.

  For Asia - Europe ocean trade, peak season demand has pushed rates up more than 50% since May to an average of $3,572/FEU last week. But even with strong demand and persistent congestion at several major European ports causing carriers to omit port calls in places like Antwerp, these rates are 60% lower than a year ago when Red Sea diversion drains on capacity were attributed with putting strong upward pressure on rates.

  Asia - Mediterranean prices of $3,568/FEU are up 20% since May on peak season demand, but have already come down by 25% from a high in mid-June – likely another indication of growing overcapacity in the market, even as Red Sea diversions continue. This rate slide puts prices to the Mediterranean, which are typically higher than Asia - Europe rates, on par with prices to Europe for the first time since January. Some carriers will nonetheless introduce Asia - Europe PSSs in August, possibly hoping capacity reductions will help rates rebound.

  In air cargo, the recent weeks following the US reciprocal tariff deadline extension haven’t seen any surge in demand or much upward pressure on inbound US cargo rates from countries granted more time for trade talks. Likewise, as the August 12th expiration of the current US tariffs on China nears, China-US air cargo trends have stayed level as well.

  Compared to rate levels just before the July 9th tariff deadline, Freightos Air Index air cargo rates from South East Asia to the US have remained stable at $4.84/kg. China-US prices have dipped 7% to $5.17/kg, rates out of South Asia are down 4% to $4.55/kg and transatlantic prices are down 2% to $1.77/kg.

  This rate stability suggests there hasn’t been a major push to move goods by air before the deadline yet. And though it is possible there will be some bump as August approaches, it seems that, overall, shippers aren’t frontloading ahead of the August 1st deadline either in expectations that trade deals will materialize, anticipation that further extensions could be granted, or as a result of a lot of frontloading already executed during the 90-day pauses.
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of July 15th 2025-07-16 12:00
  

  Analysis

  It looks like tariffs are finally starting to show up in US consumer prices, with inflation rising 2.7% in June (AP). Importers have spent the last five years learning to frontload shipments wherever possible (lessons learned from COVID, the Evergiven, wars, trade wars and bad weather), which may have delayed the blow. But that buffer’s now run out...and things may escalate. The EU is prepping retaliatory tariffs on $84 billion in US goods (WSJ), just as the US plans to hit both the EU and Mexico with 30% duties starting August 1 (Reuters).

  Even with ongoing Suez Canal disruptions, falling demand has kept ocean rates under pressure. A weak peak season has driven spot prices down fast. Asia–US West Coast rates dropped 24% last week to $2,369/FEU, while East Coast prices slid 5% to $4,888/FEU. Asia–Mediterranean prices dipped 4% to $3,802/FEU, though Asia–Northern Europe bucked the trend, climbing 4% to $3,509/FEU. Carriers are reacting quickly—transpacific capacity has already been cut by nearly a quarter (Kuehne+Nagel).

  These low prices persist despite near-total rerouting around the Suez. In related news, the rescue operation for crew from the Eternity (Lloyd’s List)—attacked by Houthi forces last week—has concluded. Of 25 crew members, ten were recovered from the sea, while six were reportedly taken hostage.

  Further east, signs of a post-conflict rebuild are emerging. Syria just signed an $800 million deal with UAE-based DP World to redevelop Tartous port (Maritime Gateway). This follows major infrastructure pacts like a 30-year CMA CGM agreement for Latakia and a $7 billion energy deal, in part supported by eased US sanctions that create space for investment.

  In air cargo, weak demand continues to weigh on rates. China–North America prices dropped 22% to $4.34/kg, while China–North Europe held steady at $3.35/kg. Rates from Northern Europe to North America fell 1% to $1.79/kg. Still, confidence seems high in the long term—Qatar Airways announced a landmark order for up to 210 Boeing widebodies, with options for 50 more (Boeing).

  Source
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of July 8th 2025-07-08 12:00
  

  Analysis

  President Trump signed an executive order on Monday extending the pause of the White House’s reciprocal tariff roll outs for a long list of US trading partners from July 9th to August 1st. Trump also sent letters to the governments of fourteen countries communicating the extension and specifying the tariff rate that will go into effect in a few weeks. These tariff levels were generally similar to those announced in April, though rates for Cambodia and Laos were significantly lower.

  The extensions allow more time for negotiations that could lower or avoid these tariff increases, as so far the White House has only signed an agreement with the UK, announced a tentative trade framework with Vietnam, and is reportedly making progress with several trade partners including the EU, Japan, Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand.

  For ocean freight, this development could mean that importers from the impacted countries will resume shipping activities that they may have been planning to pause if tariff hikes materialized this week. But the short runway until August and the volumes that many of these shippers have already frontloaded will likely mute the extent of any rest-of-July bump.

  The executive order makes clear that these changes do not apply to China, for whom current US tariff levels expire on August 11th. The president has said that the US signed a trade deal with China and the Commerce Secretary elaborated that the agreement will see China resuming its rare earth metals trade with the US and the US taking down countermeasures, though other details of the agreement – including tariff levels – remain unclear.

  In terms of ocean freight, since the trade war heat up in April, the major swings in US ocean import volumes and container rates have all centered around US policies for trade with China, with a much more limited impact from tariff changes for other countries.

  Though the April pause on reciprocal tariffs spurred frontloading of goods from many countries, including several in South East Asia, the concurrent US tariff hike on China to 145% saw US ocean imports slump overall in April and May. Likewise, transpacific container rates remained level – and likely would have decreased without the significant blanked sailings carriers implemented in April and May – in this stretch despite increased volumes out of SEA. But volumes rebounded sharply and container rates spiked by thousands of dollars per FEU following the US reducing its tariff on China to 30% in mid-May.

  So this relatively brief tariff pause extension to August 1st for countries besides China is unlikely to significantly alter the current trends in the US-bound container market, which has been facing easing volumes and falling rates since demand and prices peaked in mid-June.

  Transpacific spot rates to the West Coast fell 8% last week to $3,124/FEU. Daily rates so far this week are at $2,390/FEU, 60% lower than the $6,000/FEU mark hit just three weeks ago, 70% lower than this time last year and about back to the low for the year rate level seen from March through mid-May.

  Daily rates to the East Coast are down to $4,900/FEU for a 30% drop since mid-June. East Coast rates remain about $1,500/FEU above their March to May level, likely a result of fewer capacity additions to this lane, as shippers facing tariff deadlines have preferred the quicker West Coast route.

  Prices are dropping as demand eases from the initial post China-US de-escalation bump since the window to ship goods that will arrive in the US before August 12th is now about closed. But carriers have also increased transpacific capacity – especially to the West Coast – to a record level, which is now surpassing demand and contributing to the downward pressure on rates as well. With these forces combining to push rates down, carriers have canceled planned July GRIs and are suspending or reducing many PSSs too. Some carriers are already starting to remove capacity in attempts to stop the rate deterioration.

  Start of July GRIs were partially successful on the Asia - N. Europe lane, where rates increased 14% to $3,384/FEU last week, have climbed another $200 so far this week and are 50% higher than at the end of May. Prices are climbing on relatively strong peak season demand and are being helped by persistent congestion at several of Europe’s container hubs even as carriers take steps to adjust. But despite reasonable demand, congestion and continued Red Sea diversions – the major driver for elevated rates since early last year – prices are still well below the $8,500/FEU peak season high reached this time last year.

  One important factor to lower year on year rate levels is continued fleet growth and the record scheduled capacity on this lane as well. There are reports that carriers will increase blankings on this lane and reduce scheduled capacity in August – an unusual step during peak season. Likewise, overcapacity is being blamed for July GRIs failing on the Asia-Mediterranean lane, and scheduled capacity is set to increase in August. Despite reports of strong demand, Asia - Mediterranean rates have fallen almost 20% since mid-June, though they remain 30% higher than at the end of May.

  Similarly in air cargo, as some e-commerce volumes have exited the market capacity may now overall be exceeding demand, with the Freightos Air Index global benchmark about 7% lower than it was a year ago. The US’s suspension of de minimis exemption eligibility for Chinese exports introduced in May was a big driver of easing volumes on the transpacific – and possibly globally – in the last two months. The tax bill that the US congress passed last week includes a law that will cancel the de minimis exemption for all US imports starting in July 2027.

  In the meantime FAX China - US rates ticked up to $5.57/kg last week, about on par with last July as capacity on the lane has decreased but stabilized. China - Europe prices are down 12% in the last month to $3.35/kg, and may reflect reports of capacity increases on the lane as freighters have been shifted from the transpacific to other lanes like this one.

  Congestion and backlogs that resulted from airspace closures in the Middle East during June’s Israel-Iran war continue to cause problems at hubs in the region. FAX rates out of the Middle East have climbed by 30% to $2.71/kg to N. America and 25% to $2.44/kg to Europe since early June. Prices to N. America have eased by 11% in the last two weeks though, suggesting that carriers are making progress in clearing bottlenecks.

  Source
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of July 1st 2025-07-01 12:00
  

  Analysis

  The July 9th expiration date for the White House’s pause on April’s reciprocal tariffs on a long list of countries is rapidly approaching. The administration says it is aiming to wrap up negotiations with its ten largest trade partners after July 4th, and may unilaterally set tariff levels for other countries soon.

  Both the US and the EU recently expressed confidence that they will reach an agreement in time. And Canada, facing a July 21st deadline, agreed to cancel a planned digital-services tax shortly after President Trump called off US-Canada trade talks, citing the tax a non-starter.

  The president stated again last week that the US has signed a trade deal with China. The Commerce Secretary elaborated that the agreement will see China resuming its rare earth metals trade with the US and the US taking down countermeasures, though other details of the agreement – including tariff levels – remain unclear.

  The US’s May 12th tariff reduction on Chinese goods spurred a rebound in China-US container volumes that seems to be losing steam. Possibly expecting a longer demand surge, carriers have also added what is now too much capacity to the transpacific, especially to the West Coast.

  Asia to N. America West Coast rates climbed more than $3,000/FEU and 115% from the end of May to mid-June to a high of about $6,000/FEU. But by the end of last week these demand and capacity factors combined to push transpacific container rates down sharply. Last week’s average of $3,388/FEU is 43% below the June peak, though this price is still 22% higher than the end of May.

  Rates to the East Coast behaved similarly though not as dramatically as demand was stronger on the shorter West Coast lane and carriers focussed capacity additions to the West Coast as well. East Coast rates climbed 80% from late May to mid-June to about $7,200/FEU but closed the month 15% lower, at $6,116/FEU. This dramatic rate deterioration this early in the typical peak season months has carriers reportedly considering capacity reductions soon.

  Even with these tariff-driven pressures that pushed rates up sharply in June, however, the peaks for both lanes were at least $1,000/FEU lower than prices a year ago, and may point to overall capacity growth in the container market.

  Asia–Europe and Mediterranean rates each closed June up 25% month-on-month at $2,969/FEU and $4,222/FEU respectively. Red Sea diversions drove another early start to peak season on this lane this year, with some port congestion and capacity shifts to the transpacific also supporting rate increases at the start of June and again mid-month.

  But prices on both lanes cooled toward the end of the month suggesting market conditions may not support upcoming July GRIs, though carrier plans to reduce capacity significantly – an unusual step during peak season – could help push additional rate increases through. Like the transpacific, rates are significantly lower than a year ago on these lanes, suggesting capacity growth is putting downward pressure on rates even as carriers continue to avoid the Red Sea.

  In air cargo, the US suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese goods drove a reported 43% drop in China-US low value shipment volumes in May. With that demand drop, carriers have shifted much of the freighter capacity that was servicing China-US e-commerce goods to other lanes. With this capacity reduction, Freightos Air Index China-US rates have remained stable at about the $5.30/kg mark since May despite reports of cooling demand in the last couple weeks.

  Capacity that’s been shifted to other lanes may be one factor in China-Europe rates cooling about 8% since early June to $3.45/kg. Some frontloading out of South East Asia ahead of the July US tariff deadline may explain SEA-US air cargo rates climbing 11% to $5.17/kg since early May.

  Source
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of June 24th 2025-06-24 12:00
  

  Analysis

  Energy markets, global trade stakeholders and the international freight industry were bracing for Iran’s response to US strikes on its nuclear sites early this week. The various retaliation scenarios included Iran’s possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for all of the above.

  Late Monday though, following a measured Iranian attack on a US military base in the region, President Trump announced that a ceasefire would go into effect Tuesday morning. At the moment the ceasefire seems tenuous, but if it does take hold, those feared disruptions to oil markets and logistics could be averted.

  But even during the past twelve days of conflict tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained for the most part normal as did operations at Dubai’s Port of Jebel Ali, the major regional transhipment port and the key sea - air hub for containers arriving from the Far East and continuing on to Europe and N. America by air.

  And in Israel, the ports of Haifa and Ashdod likewise remained operational throughout, with Freightos Terminal showing no container rate volatility for Israeli lanes, though some carriers diverted away from the northern port of Haifa in favor of Ashdod. The ceasefire is also restoring air cargo capacity to the Gulf region after some airspace closures on Monday.

  With this Middle East crisis and its implications for trade possibly deescalating, attention will turn back to the US trade war and the looming tariff pause expirations. Countries other than China facing US reciprocal tariffs announced in April have only until July 9th to reach agreements or face possible duty hikes.

  And aside from a tentative agreement with the UK, the US still reports only limited progress in negotiations with many of its largest trading partners like the EU, Canada, and Vietnam. President Trump has said that the White House may apply tariffs unilaterally if deals don’t materialize in time, though other administration officials state that it may extend tariff pauses for countries it considers to be negotiating in good faith.

  About two weeks ago President Trump announced that a trade deal with China – that would keep the baseline US tariff on China at 30% – was about to be finalized though few developments or details have emerged since then. FreightWaves reports though that while the 10% reciprocal tariff will apply to all Chinese exports, the 20% tariffs aimed at fentanyl shipments will only apply to a limited list of fentanyl-related goods. Many goods will still also be subject to other tariffs like 301 duties already in place or other sectoral tariffs.

  In the meantime, the initial demand surge post the May 12th China-US deescalation and ahead of the August 12th deadline for the reduced US tariffs on China may be behind us. At the same time, carriers, expecting a stronger and more prolonged transpacific container volume spike, have increased capacity on the lane by 13% compared to March and early April.

  Easing demand and growing capacity are combining to push container spot rates down sharply, especially to the West Coast where carriers added the most capacity. Transpacific rates to the West Coast eased 7% last week, but daily rates are down to about $3,500/FEU compared to about $5,800/FEU just a week ago. Freightos Terminal Shanghai - Long Beach prices of about $3,700/FEU are about back to their late May levels. Daily rates to the East Coast are down to $6,300/FEU from a high of $7,200/FEU a week ago.

  Asia - Europe rates increased 6% last week to about $3,100/FEU but seem to be leveling off, with Asia - Mediterranean prices down 9% to $4,400/FEU and about back to their early-June level. These rate trends suggest that – despite the start of peak season demand, some capacity shift to the transpacific and persistent congestion – market conditions are not supporting mid-month rate increases. With these signs of easing though, prices are still 30% higher than at the end of May for Asia - Europe and nearly 50% higher for Asia - Mediterranean.

  In air cargo, Freightos Air Index rate data show that prices are easing slightly but are stable overall for the major lanes. Flight cancellations in the Middle East may have contributed to Middle East - N. America rates climbing to $3.00/kg last week from their baseline of about $2.50/kg since mid-May, though rates for many other Middle East lanes went unchanged.

  Source
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of June 10th 2025-06-10 12:00
  

  Analysis

  Transpacific container rates to the West Coast doubled last week on June 1st GRIs to $5,488/FEU, with the latest daily rates above $6,000/FEU as shippers start peak season early and frontload goods ahead of tariff pause expirations in July and August.

  Prices to the East Coast climbed 60% to $6,410/FEU with the latest daily rates above $7,000/FEU, with rates on both lanes about even with levels a year ago when Red Sea-driven capacity restraints combined with an early peak season rush ahead of the ILA port strike threat to push prices up.

  Carriers are planning additional transpacific GRIs of $1,000 - $3,000/FEU for mid-June and again on July 1st. China’s ports are likely still working through some of the backlog of ready to ship goods created during the April-May lull in China-US demand. In addition, some transpacific vessels and equipment that were shifted to other lanes in that period are still making their way back into place. So as peak volumes for this year’s peak season combine with still-restrained capacity and port congestion at several Far East hubs in the near term, much of these June and July rate increases are likely to take.

  By mid-July, though, rates could start to ease as demand decreases relative to what we’ve seen since mid-May, congestion eases and more capacity enters the lane. US ports are making preparations, including some from lessons learned during the pandemic, to minimize congestion that could result from the surge of containers that will start arriving in the US soon.

  In early May, with US tariffs for China still at 145%, the National Retail Federation projected US ocean import volumes to fall significantly in May and then level off through October as high tariffs suppressed demand. Now, the NRF – reflecting current rate behavior and GRI announcements – expects imports to rebound in June and peak in July with volumes reaching a low for the year in September post the possible tariff increases.

  

  Source: National Retail Federation Global Port Tracker

  These projections have volumes in July – the peak of this year’s peak season – 9% lower than last year’s August peak and 4% lower than in April, this year’s strongest month to date. These comparisons suggest that strong frontloading through April that built up inventories, and possibly some shippers decreasing shipments or pausing orders while tariffs are still at the significant minimum of 30% for China, may make this year’s tariff-deadline driven early peak season weaker than some had anticipated.

  The White House continues to work toward trade agreements with a long list of major trade partners as the July and August deadlines approach. Negotiations with China and the EU – which showed recent signs of progress following apparent steps backwards – continue even as an appeals court may decide this week whether or not to extend the stay on many of the administration’s tariffs that a US trade court voided at the end of May.

  Even if talks do lead to deals and deescalation by the set deadlines, for the container market, volumes already pulled forward ahead of those dates may mean ocean demand and rates will decrease in late Q3 and into Q4 anyway.

  In the meantime, surging transpacific container demand is having knock-on effects on other lanes too. Asia - Mediterranean rates spiked 32% last week to $4,285/FEU with daily rates up past $4,800/FEU so far this week. And carriers are planning mid-month GRIs and PSSs for Asia-Europe and other lanes, largely due to capacity being shifted from these lanes and several others like LATAM trades to the transpacific.

  In air cargo, the plaintiff in a US court case challenging the White House’s suspension of de minimis eligibility for China – set to conclude in July – requested to expedite the trial after the court rejected a DOJ request to suspend the trial while other legal challenges to tariffs are pending.

  If the court restores China’s US de minimis eligibility, some of the sharp drop in B2C e-commerce air cargo volumes could return to the market. But even with US de minimis closed to China and keeping e-commerce volumes down, lower US tariffs on China since May 12th is driving a general cargo demand rebound on the transpacific.

  Many general air cargo shippers are now frontloading ahead of the August tariff deadline and some ocean to air shift is contributing to the volume bump too, though Freightos Air Index China-US spot rates have been level at about the $5.25/kg mark since early May and are only about 5% lower than just before the May 2nd de minimis suspension.

  China-US freighter capacity dropped by a reported 40% in mid-May compared to the year before, with some of those freighters shifted to other lanes like LATAM, the Middle East or intra-Asia. China-US spot rates may not have reacted to that capacity reduction since those e-commerce dedicated freighters mostly were not available to spot shippers anyway. As demand grows on the spot market post May 12th though, rates that are nonetheless staying level may reflect freighter capacity being shifted back to the transpacific and this time being made available to general cargo shippers.

  Source
• Freightos Weekly Update: Week of June 3rd 2025-06-03 12:00
  

  Analysis

  Logistics markets and supply chains faced another confusing, dramatic few days last week as the US Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump wrongly invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to apply reciprocal tariffs on a long list of countries and other tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China targeting fentanyl smuggling.

  The ruling ordered the administration to remove the current 10% global tariff, the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the 30% tariffs on China within ten days, while tariffs on steel, aluminum, vehicles and automotive parts would remain in effect as they are not based on the IEEPA.

  The next day though, the administration’s appeal to the federal circuit court led to an administrative stay that will keep those tariffs in effect during appeal. The court asked the plaintiffs to file a brief detailing their complaint by June 5th and the government to provide a response by June 9th, though the appeals process could take weeks and include an appearance in front of the Supreme Court.

  Even if the appeals process upholds the original ruling and voids the IEEPA tariffs, the White House is likely to use other avenues to enact tariffs including Section 232 which Trump used to tariff steel and aluminum in both administrations – with an additional 25% increase on steel promised for this week – and to tariff vehicles and automotive parts this year. Trump relied on Section 301 for 7.5% to 25% tariffs on nearly $400B of Chinese imports in 2018 and 2019 and could potentially use this law again, and the president used Section 201 for tariffs on washing machines in 2018.

  Each of the above laws require some form of an investigation of the trade issue by a federal agency, and often a comment or review period before the president can take action. For some, congressional approval is also required.

  Other options include Section 122 which can be used to apply 15% tariffs on imports for 150 days, and Section 338 which allows the introduction of 50% tariffs on a specific country, but has not been used since the 1940s.

  Most of these options typically take weeks or months, and could be more difficult to leverage for tariffs as high and as broad as the IEEPA ones. But the president has already requested or received reports from agencies for most of the trade issues that the IEEPA tariffs were being used to address, which could shorten the implementation timeline.

  In the meantime, there are indications that tensions between China and the US – which had eased somewhat and resulted in lower tariffs since May 14th – are rising again.

  So, with the August 14th deadline for a trade agreement approaching and this latest deterioration in China-US relations possibly increasing the likelihood of tariff increases after that date, transpacific ocean demand is surging as shippers rush to bring in peak season goods before then.

  Though Asia - N. America container rates were about level last week, so far this week June 1st General Rate Increases have started to push daily prices up sharply via this demand jump. Rates have spiked 72% to the West Coast since last week to $4,765/FEU and 44% to the East Coast to $5,721/FEU, with more increases likely and additional hikes announced for mid-month.

  The sharper climb for West Coast rates may reflect shippers’ need for speed and preference for a shorter journey as they frontload ahead of the deadline. Carriers have likewise scheduled record capacity to the West Coast through July to serve this anticipated demand.

  The surge in China-US volumes since mid-May is already leading to significant congestion at some major ports in China and in Singapore and other tranship hubs as well. Some observers are concerned that this jump in demand could overwhelm the ports of LA and Long Beach in a few weeks, though port officials say they are ready to handle the volume increase.

  Carriers are also seeking to increase Asia - Europe container rates on early June GRIs, with daily rates up $300/FEU to $2,650/FEU so far this week to N. Europe and about $600/FEU to $3,575/FEU to the Mediterranean and additional increases planned by some carriers for mid-month as well.

  Though capacity levels are falling on these lanes as some carriers shift vessels to the transpacific and congestion at European hubs continues to cause delays, many in the industry are skeptical these price increases will stick as demand remains flat. But even last week, rates were about double 2019 levels as Red Sea diversions and their drag on capacity keep rates well above normal on these lanes. And though the Houthis announced that the Red Sea is now safe for any vessel not making port calls in Israel, carriers are still unlikely to go back in the near term.

  For air cargo, the court ruling likely would have removed the US’s suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese goods. The suspension, which has been in place since May 2nd, has led to a big drop in B2C e-commerce volumes moving from China to the US via air cargo.

  The stay will likely keep e-commerce platforms away from the air on this lane, though the August deadline for a China-US trade deal may be driving some ocean to air shift helping to keep Freightos Air Index China-US rates elevated at $5.35/kg last week, up from $5.14/kg the week prior.

  The e-commerce shift away from transpacific air cargo is expected to have a significant impact on the market though, and is one factor in IATA’s recent projection for little to no growth in global air cargo volumes for 2025 after an 12% jump in demand in 2024.

  Source