Latest Updates

• Euro Area Inflation: July 2025 (Final) 2025-08-20 05:00

  

  Euro area HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.0% YoY in July 2025, unchanged from June, while the monthly rate was flat at 0.0%, suggesting overall price pressures remained stable.

  • Core inflation (all-items excluding energy) eased slightly to 2.5% YoY (from 2.5% in June) and -0.1% MoM, indicating modest softening in underlying inflation.

  • Services inflation accelerated to 3.2% YoY and 1.1% MoM, making it the largest contributor to overall price pressures.

  • Energy prices declined -2.4% YoY but rose 1.0% MoM, reflecting ongoing volatility in energy costs.

  • Processed food, alcohol & tobacco rose 2.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM, while unprocessed food accelerated to 5.4% YoY despite a -0.2% MoM decline.

  • Non-energy industrial goods were up 0.8% YoY, but fell -2.4% MoM, pointing to some easing in goods price pressures.

  

  • Services remains the main contributor to inflation at 1.46 ppts in July, down from 1.51 ppts in June. The contributions from food and non-energy goods both ticked up, by 4 bps and 5 bps, respectively.

  Source
• Euro Area Inflation: July 2025 (Preliminary) 2025-08-01 05:00
  

  Euro area HICP inflation was flat at 0.0% MoM in July and held steady at 2.0% YoY, in line with the ECB’s target but slightly below expectations of 1.9% YoY.

  • Core inflation was -0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, unchanged from the previous reading of 2.3% YoY for the last three months.
  • Services inflation accelerated to 3.1% YoY from 3.0% YoY, with a strong 1.0% MoM gain.
  • Non-energy goods prices fell -2.4% MoM, but despite the sharp decline, the annual rate accelerated 0.3 ppts to 0.8% YoY.
  • Food, alcohol & tobacco inflation accelerated to 3.3% YoY (from 3.1%) driven by processed food (+2.7% YoY) and alcohol/tobacco.
  • Energy prices fell -2.5% YoY (vs -2.7% YoY in June) and dropped -0.2% MoM.

  Source
• Euro Area Inflation: June 2025 (Final) 2025-07-17 05:00
  

  Euro area HICP inflation in June was confirmed at 0.3% MoM and 2.0% YoY, up from 1.9% YoY in May.

  • Core inflation was confirmed at 0.4% MoM and 2.3% YoY, unchanged from 2.3% YoY in the previous month.
  • Food, alcohol & tobacco inflation was confirmed at 3.1% YoY and 0.1% MoM, up from 3.2% YoY.
  • Energy inflation saw a slight upward revision from 0.1% MoM and -2.7% YoY in the flash estimate to 0.2% MoM and -2.6% YoY.
  • Both non-energy goods and services inflation were confirmed at their flash estimates of 0.5% YoY and 3.3% YoY, respectively.
  • The segments that contributed to a higher annual inflation rate were services and energy, adding 4 bps and 9 bps respectively.

  Source
• Euro Area Inflation: June 2025 (Preliminary) 2025-07-01 05:00
  

  Euro area HICP inflation rose 0.3% MoM in June and accelerated to 2.0% YoY, 1.9% YoY in May in line with expectations.

  • Core inflation was 0.4% MoM and 2.3% YoY, unchanged from 2.3% YoY in the previous month.
  • Food, alcohol & tobacco inflation rose to 3.1% YoY from 3.2% YoY despite only a 0.1% MoM increase, with unprocessed food up 4.6% YoY.
  • Energy inflation remained negative at -2.7% YoY but up from -3.6% YoY previously after an 0.1% MoM increase in June.
  • Services inflation ticked up to 3.3% YoY from 3.2% YoY, with a strong 0.7% MoM gain.
  • Non-energy industrial goods prices fell -0.2% MoM, keeping the annual increase low at 0.5% YoY, where it’s been for the past year.

  Source
• Euro Area Inflation: May 2025 (Final) 2025-06-18 05:00
  

  Euro area HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.0% MoM and slowed to 1.9% YoY in May, down from 2.2% YoY in April.

  • Core inflation was also confirmed at 0.0% MoM and 2.3% YoY, down from 2.7% YoY and below expectations of a 2.5% YoY increase.
  • Annual core inflation is the lowest since January 2022, and the monthly rate of 0.0% MoM is the lowest since May 2020.
  • The disinflation in May came from the services component which contributed 1.47 ppts, down from 1.80 ppts in April. This is the smallest contribution from services since March 2022.

  Source
• Euro Area Inflation: May 2025 (Preliminary) 2025-06-03 05:00
  

  Euro area HICP inflation was 0.0% MoM and slowed to 1.9% YoY in May, down from 2.2% YoY in April and below expectations of a 2.0% YoY increase.

  • Core inflation was 0.0% MoM and 2.3% YoY, down from 2.7% YoY and below expectations of a 2.5% YoY increase.
  • Annual core inflation is the lowest since January 2022, and the monthly rate of 0.0% MoM is the lowest since May 2020.
  • Food inflation increased 0.5% MoM and 3.3% YoY, the highest since February 2024.
  • Energy inflation was -3.6% YoY and -1.2% MoM, continuing to weigh on the headline figure.
  • Services inflation cooled significantly, falling to 3.2% YoY in May from 4.0% in April and posted a -0.1% MoM decline. The annual rate is the lowest since March 2022.
  • Non-energy industrial goods inflation remained steady at 0.6% YoY, up just 0.1% MoM.

  Source
• Euro Area Inflation: April 2025 (Final) 2025-05-19 05:00
  

  Euro area inflation was confirmed at 0.6% MoM and 2.2% YoY in April, unchanged from the March rate, as slight downward revisions in food and energy offset an upward revision in services.

  • Core inflation was also confirmed at 1.0% MoM and 2.7% YoY, up from 2.4% YoY.
  • The core monthly increase of 1.0% MoM was above the 0.6% MoM increase in April 2024.
  • Food prices increased 0.3% MoM (slight downward revision from 0.4% MoM in first estimate) and 3.0% YoY, the highest annual rate since February 2024.
  • Energy prices declined -2.3% MoM and -3.6% YoY (revised down from -3.5% YoY in initial estimate).
  • Non-energy goods were up 0.4% MoM and the annual rate was unchanged at 0.6% YoY.
  • Services inflation was revised up slightly at 1.4% MoM and 3.9% YoY, up from the first estimate of 1.3% MoM and 4.0% YoY.

  

  • The contribution from services inflation to headline YoY inflation increased to 1.80 ppts, the highest since August 2024, but the increase was offset by a similar decline in the energy contribution.

  Source
• Euro Area Inflation: April 2025 (Preliminary) 2025-05-02 05:00
  

  Euro area inflation was 0.6% MoM and 2.2% YoY in April, unchanged from the March rate but slightly above expectations of a 2.1% YoY increase.

  • Core inflation was 1.0% MoM and 2.7% YoY, up from 2.4% YoY and above expectations of a 2.5% YoY increase.
  • The core monthly increase of 1.0% MoM was above the 0.6% MoM increase in April 2024.
  • Food prices increased 0.4% MoM and 3.0% YoY, the highest annual rate since February 2024.
  • Energy prices declined -2.3% MoM and -3.5% YoY, offsetting some of the hotter prints elsewhere.
  • Non-energy goods were up 0.4% MoM and the annual rate was unchanged at 0.6% YoY.
  • Services inflation was hot, printing 1.3% MoM and 3.9% YoY, up from 3.5% YoY in March and the hottest in 2025 so far.
  • The services MoM print of 1.3% was significantly faster than the 0.8% increase in April 2024.

  Source
• Euro Area Inflation: March 2025 (Final) 2025-04-16 05:00
  

  Euro area inflation in March was confirmed at 0.6% MoM and 2.2% YoY, down from 2.3% YoY in February.

  • Core inflation was confirmed at 1.0% MoM and 2.4% YoY.
  • Energy was revised down -0.3 ppts to -1.0% MoM offsetting an upward revision in services which put the annual rate 0.1 ppts above the initial estimate of 3.4% YoY.

  

  • Services still accounts for over 20% of inflation, but the contribution has fallen to 1.56 ppts as of March.

  Source
• Euro Area Inflation: March 2025 (Preliminary) 2025-04-01 06:00
  

  Euro area inflation continued on its cooling path in March as core inflation fell to its lowest rate in over three years. While this is good news for the ECB, this inflation news comes a day before the Trump administration's major tariff announcements on April 2nd, which will create a new source of price uncertainty for Europe that may discount the disinflationary progress that has occurred so far this year.

  Headline Inflation

  

  Eurostat reported today that HICP inflation for the euro area was 0.6% MoM and 2.2% YoY in March, down from 2.3% YoY in February and a surprise below the 2.3% YoY rate that was expected. The monthly rate was notably hot (the joint strongest in 11 months), but it was actually the lowest March reading so in the post-pandemic period. With March 2024 monthly inflation at 0.8% MoM, this allowed for a slight deceleration in the annual rate due to base effects. Soft food and energy prices also led to a deceleration in the headline rate:

  • A strong -1.2% MoM decline in energy prices helped push the headline inflation rate down in March. This was the second straight decline in energy prices and a welcome cooling from the rebound at the end of 2024 and January 2025. On an annual basis, energy prices fell -0.7% YoY, the first annual decline since November 2024.
  • Food (including alcohol & tobacco) prices increased 0.3% MoM, moderating from increases of 0.6% MoM and 0.4% MoM in January and February respectively. Despite the short-term slowdown in the monthly rate, the annual rate increased 0.2 ppts to 2.9% and was the highest since October 2024. The recent trends in this index suggest there is some resurged in inflationary pressures in the food segment. This could be exacerbated by tariffs in the near future.

  Core Inflation

  

  The notable result from the inflation report was a larger-than-expected deceleration in the core inflation for the euro area. HICP inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco was 1.0% MoM and 2.4% YoY in March, down from 2.6% YoY in February and below expectations of a deceleration to 2.5% YoY. This is the lowest annual rate since January 2022 and is a major win for the ECB. Since 2010, monthly core inflation in the third month of the year has been recorded at or above 1%. While this last month was no different, the 1.0% MoM increase last month was the lowest March increase since 2021 and below the pre-pandemic for the month.

  • The non-energy industrial goods segment saw a large jump of 1.9% MoM, but the annual rate remained unchanged at 0.6% MoM. Base effects played a significant role in that unchanged as this segment also increased 1.9% MoM in March 2024. In general, inflationary pressures from goods pressures are still low and contained by subdued consumption growth.

  

  • The services segment is the main pain point for the ECB as it is most closely tied to wage pressures which have been elevated over the last year. Services inflation was just 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY in March, down from 3.7% YoY in February and the lowest since June 2022. As we have seen in other segments, the services segment’s MoM rate in March 2025 was weak compared to recent March readings, specifically, the lowest since March 2022.

  

  The March euro area inflation reading was not a major surprise as declines in inflation were already reported across Europe. Notably, there was a strong deceleration in the German annual rate to 2.3% YoY as services price growth was softer there. Similarly, the Spanish annual inflation rate saw strong strong disinflation, falling from 2.9% YoY in February to 2.2% YoY in March. Belgium and France were both major, weak monthly prints at -0.4% MoM and 0.2% MoM respectively. Italy was a notable hot spot with a 1.6% MoM increase in March (though the annual rate maintained near target at 2.1% YoY).

  Inflation Expectations

  

  The easing in inflation so far in 2025 has started to impact consumers’ feelings about prices. In the latest version of the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey conducted in February 2024, the median inflation perception over the last 12 months fell -0.3 ppts to 3.1%, the lowest since August 2021. This led to uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months declining slightly in February to its lowest level since January 2022. While this didn’t result in lower inflation expectations in the month, it is a key result in consumer sentiment that has been battered by inflationary pressures for the last three years. The one caveat is this survey likely doesn’t include euro area consumers’ views on how US tariffs may impact prices.

  

  The European Commission’s economic sentiment survey may incorporate some of that information, and it shows that businesses are reacting with higher inflation expectations. The index tracking euro area manufacturers’ selling price expectations increased 1.0 pt to 11.6 in March, the highest since the beginning of 2023. Selling price expectations for retailers actually jumped as early as January, up to 17.3, and, as of March, remained at this elevated level which is the highest since the end of 2022. These results suggest that firms handling goods, which are the ones most likely to be impacted by tariffs, are expecting to have to increase prices in the near future.

  Source
• Euro Area 2025-03-19 05:00
  

  Euro area inflation in February was revised down to 0.4% MoM and 2.3% YoY in February from the first estimate of 0.5% MoM and 2.4% YoY.

  • Monthly core inflation was downgraded slightly to 0.5% MoM (vs 0.6% MoM initial estimate) but the annual rate was unchanged at 2.7% YoY.
  • Food inflation confirmed at 0.4% Mom and 2.7% YoY.
  • Energy inflation confirmed at -0.3% MoM and 0.2% YoY.
  • Core goods inflation confirmed at 0.4% MoM and 0.6% YoY.
  • Core services inflation sees a slightly minor revision to 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY from 0.7% MoM and 3.6% YoY in the initial estimate.
  • At least half of the deceleration in the headline inflation rate can be attributed to deceleration in services which contributed 1.66 ppts, the lowest contribution since April 2024.

  Source
• Euro Area 2025-03-03 05:00
  

  Euro area inflation was 0.5% MoM and 2.4% YoY in February, down from 2.5% YoY in January but slightly above expectations of 2.3% YoY.

  • Food prices grew 0.4% MoM and 2.7% YoY but were offset by a -0.3% MoM decline in energy.
  • Core inflation eased slightly to 2.6% YoY (previously 2.7% YoY) but was above expectations of a 2.5% YoY reading.
  • Core goods prices were up 0.4% MoM and the annual rate accelerated 0.1 ppts to 0.6% YoY.
  • Core services prices were up 0.7% MoM but the annual rate eased to 3.7% YoY, the lowest since April 2024.

  Source