Euro Area Economic Sentiment

Data Sentiment

Source: European Commission
Source Link: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/
Frequency: Semi-Monthly
Next Release(s): January 29th, 2026 5:00 AM

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The EU Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose slightly in September 2025 (EU: +0.6 pts to 95.5; euro area: +0.2 pts to 95.5), while the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) fell (EU: -0.9 pts to 97.1; euro area: -1.3 pts to 96.4), with both indicators still below their long-term averages.
- Industry confidence fell -0.1 pts to -10.3 as stronger production expectations partly offset by weaker order book assessments.
- Services confidence eased -0.2 pts to 3.6, supported by stronger demand expectations, though past business assessments deteriorated.
- Consumer confidence increased 0.6 pts to-14.9, with households less pessimistic on future finances and major purchases, while views on past finances and the wider economy were largely unchanged.
- Retail trade confidence fell -1.3 pt to -7.7, reflecting weaker assessments of stocks and past business, though short-term expectations improved.
- Construction confidence was broadly stable, up +0.1 pts to -3.5, with better order book views offset by weaker employment expectations.
- Selling price expectations decreased in industry and services, but increased in construction and held steady in retail; consumers’ 12-month price expectations also declined.
- The Economic Uncertainty Indicator ticked up +0.5 pts to 17.2, with rising uncertainty in services, retail, and households offsetting declines in industry and construction.
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The European Commission's flash estimate of the euro area consumer confidence improved 0.6 ppts to -14.9 in September, above expectations of a small rise to -15.3.

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The EU Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged down in August 2025 (EU: -0.3 pts to 94.9; euro area: -0.5 pts to 95.2), while the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) improved slightly (EU: +0.6 pts to 98.1; euro area: +0.3 pts to 97.8), with both indicators below their long-term averages.
- Spain saw the sharpest ESI drop (-2.6 pts), followed by Germany (-1.0) and Italy (-1.0), while the Netherlands (+3.5) and Poland (+0.5) posted gains; France was stable (+0.1).
- Industry confidence fell -0.2 pts as weaker production expectations outweighed stable order books; managers’ export order books also worsened.
- Services confidence slipped -0.3 pts on lower past demand assessments, partly offset by improved future demand expectations.
- Consumer confidence declined -0.3 pts, reflecting weaker household financial outlooks, though intentions for major purchases improved.
- Retail trade confidence inched up +0.2 pts, while construction eased -0.3 pts, with fewer citing insufficient demand but more pointing to labor shortages.
- Selling price expectations fell in industry, retail, and construction, but rose again in services; consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased.
- The Economic Uncertainty Indicator eased -0.4 pts to 16.9, with lower uncertainty in services, industry, and retail, but slight increases in construction and among consumers.
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The European Commission's flash estimate of the euro area consumer confidence fell -0.8 ppts to -15.5 in August, below expectations of a reading of -14.9.

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The euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator rose +1.6 pts to 95.8 in July, while the EU ESI rose +1.0 pts to 95.3, both still below their long-term average of 100.
- The Employment Expectations Indicator remained broadly stable (euro area: +0.3 pts to 97.5; EU: -0.3 pts to 97.4).
- Industry confidence rose +0.9 pts on improved production expectations and better order book assessments.
- Services (+0.7 pts), retail trade (+0.8 pts), and consumer confidence (+0.3 pts) improved, while construction fell -0.6 pts on weaker employment expectations.
- Selling price expectations increased across sectors, especially in industry and services, with consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months also rising.
- The Economic Uncertainty Indicator increased +1.0 pt to 17.3, with heightened uncertainty in industry and services, but declines in retail, construction, and among consumers.
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