ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Outlook Macro

Source

European Central Bank

Source Link

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/

Next Release(s)

May 4th, 2026 4:00 AM

Latest Updates

Press release

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Press release

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Euro area inflation and growth expectations were slightly revised in the ECB’s Q3 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters, with near-term headline inflation and 2026 growth adjusted downward.
- Headline HICP inflation is expected at 2.0% in 2025 (revised down -0.2 ppt) and 1.8% in 2026 (-0.2 ppt), before rising to 2.0% in 2027 and remaining steady long-term.
- Core HICP inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 were revised slightly down to 2.0%, while long-term expectations held steady at 2.0%.
- Real GDP growth was revised up to 1.1% for 2025 (+0.2 ppt) but lowered to 1.1% for 2026 (-0.1 ppt); projections for 2027 and the long-term were unchanged at 1.4% and 1.3%.
- Tariffs were expected to lower inflation by -0.06 ppts in 2025 and 2026, with no net impact beyond 2027.
- Unemployment is forecast to average 6.3% in 2025–26, falling slightly to 6.2% in 2027 and long-term (revised down -0.1 ppt).
Press release
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- Impacts of tariffs and defence spending main factors behind revisions to inflation and growth
- Respondents’ expectations for headline HICP inflation were 2.2% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026 and 2027. Expectations were revised up by 0.1 percentage points for 2025 and 2026 compared with the previous survey (conducted in the first quarter of 2025) but were unchanged for 2027.
- Expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, were revised up slightly across all horizons. Longer-term expectations for headline inflation were unchanged at 2.0%, while those for core HICP inflation were revised up slightly to 2.0%.
- Real GDP growth expectations revised down by 0.1 percentage points for 2025 and 2026 but up by 0.1 percentage points for 2027; longer-term expectations unchanged
- The expected trajectory of the unemployment rate was revised slightly downwards. The unemployment rate is expected to average 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, and then to fall to 6.2% in the longer term.
Press release
Source
ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: Q1 2025 2025-01-31 05:00