ECB Consumer Expectations Survey

Data Macro

Source: European Central Bank
Source Link: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): January 8th, 2026 4:00 AM

Latest Updates

ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: October 2025 2025-11-28 04:00
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: September 2025 2025-10-28 04:00
Euro area consumer inflation expectations edged higher in August 2025, with short- and long-term views stable but 12-month and 5-year horizons rising modestly.
- Perceived inflation over the past 12 months stayed at 3.1% for the seventh straight month.
- 12-month inflation expectations rose to 2.8% (from 2.6%), while 3-year expectations held at 2.5%; 5-year expectations increased slightly to 2.2% (from 2.1%), the highest since August 2022.
- Nominal income growth expectations rose to 1.1% (from 0.9%), while expected spending growth over the next 12 months remained at 3.3%.
- Economic growth expectations were unchanged at -1.2%, but the expected unemployment rate in 12 months ticked up to 10.7% (from 10.6%).
- Home price expectations increased to +3.4% (from +3.3%), while mortgage rate expectations stayed steady at 4.5%.
- Credit conditions continued to tighten, with more households reporting reduced access both in the past 12 months and looking ahead.
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Euro area consumer inflation expectations were largely steady in July 2025, with short-term and long-term views unchanged while 3-year expectations ticked higher.
- Perceived inflation over the past 12 months held at 3.1% for the sixth straight month, while 12-month expectations stayed at 2.6% and 5-year expectations at 2.1%.
- Three-year inflation expectations edged up to 2.5% (from 2.4%), while uncertainty around 12-month expectations remained at its lowest since January 2022.
- Nominal income growth expectations fell to 0.9% (from 1.0%), but expected spending growth over the next 12 months rose slightly to 3.3% (from 3.2%).
- Economic growth expectations weakened further to -1.2% (from -1.0%), while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 10.6% (from 10.3%).
- Home price expectations increased to +3.3% (from +3.1%), while mortgage rate expectations rose to 4.5% (from 4.3%).
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Euro area consumer inflation expectations declined in June, with the median 1-year expectation falling -0.2 ppts to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2024.
- Perceived inflation over the previous 12 months held steady at 3.1% for the fourth straight month.
- 3-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.4% after a -0.1 ppt drop in May.
- 5-year inflation expectations remained anchored at 2.1% for the fourth consecutive month.
Euro area household income and consumption expectations softened in June, as consumers grew slightly more cautious.
- Median 12-month household net income expectations remained flat at 0.1% for the fourth month.
- Household spending perceptions over the past 12 months were unchanged at 2.9%.
- Median 12-month spending expectations dipped -0.1 ppt to 2.0%, marking a second decline in three months.
Euro area economic sentiment showed little change in June, with the median growth outlook steady at 0.0% for the third time in four months.
- Perceived current unemployment rate edged down -0.1 ppt to 7.1% after a temporary rise in May.
- Median unemployment expectations 12 months ahead fell -0.1 ppt to 7.6%, matching March levels.
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Euro area consumer inflation expectations eased in May, with the median 1-year expectation down -0.3 ppts to 2.8%, reversing April’s rise.
- Perceived inflation over the previous 12 months was unchanged at 3.1% for the fourth consecutive month.
- 3-year inflation expectations edged down -0.1 ppts to 2.4%.
- 5-year inflation expectations held steady at 2.1% for the fourth straight month.
Euro area household income and consumption expectations were stable in May, with the median 12-month net income expectation holding at 0.1% for the fourth consecutive month.
- Perceptions of household spending over the past 12 months were unchanged at 2.9%.
- Median 12-month spending expectations fell -0.3 ppts to 2.1%, returning to February and March levels after a temporary uptick in April.
Euro area economic growth expectations remained flat in May, with the median 12-month outlook unchanged at 0.0% for the third time in four months.
- The perceived current unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 ppt to 7.2%, matching the level seen in February.
- The median 12-month ahead unemployment expectation fell -0.1 ppt to 7.7%, down from April's 7.8%.
- The median perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next three months held steady at 0.9%.
- The probability of finding a job and looking for a job was not reported for May.
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Euro area consumer inflation expectations rose again in April, with the median 1-year expectation up 0.2 ppts to 3.1%—matching perceived inflation for the first time since mid-2021.
- 3-year and 5-year median inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively.
Nominal income growth expectations fell to 0.9% (from 1.0%), while nominal spending growth expectations increased to 3.7% (from 3.4%).

Economic growth expectations fell to -1.9% (from -1.2%), and the 12-month unemployment rate expectation ticked up to 10.5% (from 10.4%).
- Home price growth expectations rose to 3.2%, while mortgage rate expectations increased to 4.5%.
- More households reported tighter credit access over the past year (+21.7% net) and anticipated further tightening in the year ahead (+20.8% net).
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Euro area consumer inflation expectations increased at the short- and mid-term time horizons in March.
- The median 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations increased 0.3 ppts to 2.9% and 0.1 ppts to 2.5%, respectively. Both readings are the highest in a year.
- Longer-term 5-year ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.1%.
- The mean expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months decreased to 3.4% in March, from 3.5% in February and 3.6% in January. This decrease was observed across most income groups.
- The median economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were stable in March, standing at 0.0%.
- Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 7.6% in March, from 7.8% in February.
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The median perceived inflation rate over the past 12 months declined to 3.1% in February (from 3.4% in January), the lowest since September 2021. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained at 2.6%, while three-year-ahead expectations were unchanged at 2.4%.
- Uncertainty about 12-month inflation expectations fell to its lowest level since January 2022.
- Nominal income growth expectations for the next 12 months rose to 1.0% (from 0.9%), while expected spending growth decreased to 3.5% (from 3.6%).
- Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months fell to -1.2% (from -1.1%), while unemployment expectations rose to 10.5% (from 10.4%).
- Home price expectations remained at 3.0% YoY, while mortgage rate expectations edged down to 4.4% (from 4.5%).
- Fewer households reported tighter credit conditions over the past 12 months, with expectations for future tightening also declining.
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Euro area consumer inflation expectations eased in January as the perceptions of inflation slightly cooled.
- Inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months (median) fell -0.1 ppts to 3.4%.
- Inflation expectations 1-year ahead eased -0.2 ppts to 2.6%, and expectations 3-year ahead were unchanged at 2.4%.
Expectations for household spending saw a significant increase despite income expectations holding firm.
- Household net income expectations 12 months ahead (median) were unchanged at 0.1%.
- Household spending perceptions over the previous 12 months were also unchanged at 3.0%.
- Household spending expectations 12 months ahead jumped 0.3 ppts to 2.4%, the highest since March 2024.
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Euro area consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased 0.2 ppts to 2.8% in December. Longer-term three year ahead inflation expectations were stable at 2.4%, however.

Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 1.1% in December. Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 5.2% in December, as did expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months at 3.5%.

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Euro area median consumer inflation expectations ticked higher in November after falling in the previous two months. Year ahead inflation expectations increased 0.1 ppts to 2.6%, and three years ahead inflation expectations saw a sizeable increase of 0.3 ppts to 2.4%, the highest since June. A net percentage of 76.1% of consumers expect prices to increase, the highest since September 2023.

Euro area consumer expectations of income and spending growth were mostly stable in November. Year ahead income growth was unchanged at 0.1%, and year ahead spending growth was unchanged at 2.1%. Spending expectations have been at 2.0%-2.1% since April with a little over half of respondents saying they expect their spending to increase (net of those who see it decreasing).

The median expectation of economic growth over the next year in the euro area remained at 0.0% where is has been all year, though the mean dipped down to -1.3% from -1.1% in October. Consumers also saw an increase in median unemployment expectations and the current perceived unemployment rate with the former up 0.4 ppts to 7.9% and the latter up 0.1 ppts to 7.2%. This expected unemployment rate is the highest so far in 2024.

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