Latest Updates

• Decision Maker Panel Survey: March 2026 2026-04-02 04:30

  
• Decision Maker Panel Survey: February 2026 2026-03-05 04:30

  Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth was 3.7% in the three months to February, unchanged from the three months to January. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

  • Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.4% in the three months to February, 0.1 percentage points lower than firms reported in the three months to January. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to slightly fall over the next year, based on three-month averages.
  • Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1% in the three months to February. The corresponding measure for three-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.8% in the three months to February, which is 0.1 percentage points lower relative to the three months to January.
  • Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.3% in the three months to February, 0.1 percentage points lower than in the three months to January. Expected year-ahead wage growth remained unchanged at 3.6% in the three months to February. This implies that firms expect their wage growth to decline by 0.7 percentage points over the next 12 months.
  • Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.2% in the three months to February, up from -0.5% in the three months to January. Expectations for employment growth over the next year improved slightly, rising by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1% in the three months to February.

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• Decision Maker Panel Survey: January 2026 2026-02-05 04:30

  Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth was 3.7% in the three months to January, unchanged from the three months to December. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

  • Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.5% in the three months to January, 0.1 percentage points lower than firms reported in the three months to December. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to slightly fall over the next year, based on three-month averages.
  • Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2% in the three months to January. The corresponding measure for three-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.9% in the three months to January, which remained unchanged relative to the three months to December.
  • Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.4% in the three months to January, unchanged from the three months to December. Expected year-ahead wage growth fell slightly, by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6% in the three months to January. This implies that firms expect their wage growth to decline by 0.8 percentage points over the next 12 months.
  • Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.6% in the three months to January, down from -0.4% in the three months to December. Expectations for employment growth over the next year improved slightly, rising by 0.2 percentage points to -0.2% in the three months to January.

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• Decision Maker Panel Survey: December 2025 2026-01-08 04:30

  Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% in the three months to December. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

  • Year-ahead expected own-price inflation was 3.6% in the three months to December, 0.1 percentage points lower than firms reported in the three months to November. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to fall by 0.1 percentage points over the next year, based on three-month averages.
  • Year-ahead expected CPI inflation was 3.4% in the three months to December. The corresponding measure for three-year-ahead CPI inflation was 2.9%. Both measures have been broadly stable over recent months.
  • Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.4% in the three months to December, 0.1 percentage point below the three months to November. Expected year-ahead wage growth fell slightly, by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% in the three months to December. This implies that firms expect their wage growth to decline by 0.7 percentage points over the next 12 months.
  • Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.4% in the three months to December, up from -0.7% in the three months to November. Expectations for employment growth over the next year weakened slightly this month, falling by 0.2 percentage points to -0.4% in the three months to December.

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• Decision Maker Panel Survey: November 2025 2025-12-04 04:30

  Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth remained unchanged at 3.8% in the three months to November. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

  • Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.7% in the three months to November, 0.1 percentage points higher than firms reported in the three months to October. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to fall by 0.1 percentage points over the next year, based on three-month averages.
  • Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.4% in the three months to November. The corresponding measure for three-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations was 3.0% in the three months to November, which remains unchanged relative to the three months to October.
  • Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.5% in the three months to November, unchanged from the three months to October. Expected year-ahead wage growth rose slightly, by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in the three months to November. This implies that firms expect their wage growth to decline by 0.7 percentage points over the next 12 months.
  • Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.7% in the three months to November, down from -0.3% in the three months to October. Expectations for employment growth over the next year also weakened slightly, falling by 0.1 percentage points to -0.2% in the three months to November.
  • In November, the DMP survey asked firms about changes in their profit margins between 2024Q3 and 2025Q3. 42% of firms reported a decrease, 34% reported an increase, while 24% saw no material change in profit margins. Firms were also asked about expected changes in profit margins over the year to 2026Q3. 38% expected an increase, 38% of firms expected no change in their profit margins, and the remaining 24% expected a decrease. Note these questions have only been asked to a third of firms in the panel so far.

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• Decision Maker Panel Survey: October 2025 2025-11-06 09:00

  Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth fell slightly, by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in the three months to October. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

  • In the three months to October, firms on average expected their year-ahead own-price inflation to be 3.7% unchanged from the three months to September. This implies that firms expect a small fall in own-price inflation over the next year.
  • Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.4% in the three months to October. The corresponding measure for three-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% in the three months to October.
  • Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.5% in the three months to October, falling by 0.1 percentage points since the three months to September. Expected year-ahead wage growth rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7%. This implies that firms expected their wage growth to decline by 0.8 percentage points over the next 12 months.
  • Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.3% in the three months to October, up from -0.5% in the three months to September but at historically weak rates. Expectations for employment growth over the next year also fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to -0.1% in the three months to October. 
  • Across August to October, the DMP survey asked firms about their margins of adjustment to the changes in employer National insurance contributions (NICs) implemented in April 2025. Firms were allowed to select more than one option. On average, 64% of firms reported lowering profit margins, 44% lowering employment, 37% raising prices, and 17% paying lower wages than they otherwise would have done.

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• Decision Maker Panel Survey: September 2025 2025-10-02 04:30

  Firms reported realised annual own-price growth at 3.8% in the three months to September (+0.1 pp vs the three months to August), while year-ahead expectations stayed at 3.7%.

  • Year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose to 3.4% (+0.1 pp), while three-year expectations remained steady at 2.9%, showing stability in longer-term price views.

  • Annual wage growth held at 4.6% on a three-month average, while year-ahead expectations stayed at 3.6%; the single-month figure ticked up to 3.8%.

  • Employment growth remained at -0.5% in the three months to September, while year-ahead expectations slipped -0.2 pp to 0.0%, reflecting a softer hiring outlook.

  • Recruitment conditions were broadly unchanged, with 9% of firms reporting hiring as “much harder than normal” and 19% saying it was easier, slightly below earlier averages.

  • Business uncertainty remained elevated, with 58% of firms reporting high or very high uncertainty (+1 pp MoM), though sales and price uncertainty were little changed and well below past peaks.

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• Decision Maker Panel Survey: August 2025 2025-09-04 04:30

  Firms reported annual own-price inflation at 3.7% in the three months to August, up 0.1 pp from July, while year-ahead expectations held steady at 3.7%.

  • Year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose to 3.3% (+0.1 pp), while three-year expectations edged up to 2.9% (+0.1 pp), marking the first increase since January.

  • Annual wage growth eased slightly to 4.6% (-0.1 pp), with firms still expecting it to slow to 3.6% over the next year.

  • Employment growth declined to -0.5% (-0.4 pp), and expectations for the year ahead softened to 0.2% (-0.3 pp), reflecting weaker labor demand.

  • In response to April’s increase in employer NICs, 66% of firms reported lowering profit margins, 34% raised prices, 46% reduced employment, and 20% cut wages relative to prior plans.

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• Decision Maker Panel Survey: July 2025 2025-08-07 09:00

  Firms reported annual own-price inflation at 3.6% in the three months to July, up 0.1 pp from June, while year-ahead own-price expectations also edged up to 3.7% (+0.1 pp).

  • Year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose to 3.2% (+0.1 pp), while three-year expectations held steady at 2.8%.
  • Annual wage growth rose to 4.7% (+0.1 pp), but firms still expect it to slow to 3.6% over the next year.
  • Employment growth turned negative at -0.1%, and expectations for the year ahead softened to 0.5% (-0.1 pp).
  • 24% of firms expect US trade policy to lower sales, and 20% anticipate reduced capital spending.
  • Overall uncertainty declined slightly to 55%, while only 10% of firms cited US trade policy as a top-3 concern (down -4 pp from June).

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• Decision Maker Panel Survey: June 2025 2025-07-03 04:30

  Firms reported output price inflation at 3.5% in the three months to June, unchanged from May, while year-ahead own-price expectations edged down to 3.6% (-0.1pp).

  • CPI inflation expectations fell to 3.1% (-0.1pp) for the year ahead and held steady at 2.8% for the three-year horizon.
  • Annual wage growth declined slightly to 4.6% (-0.1pp), and year-ahead wage expectations fell to 3.6% (-0.1pp); single-month expectation was unchanged at 3.6%.
  • 29% of firms expect lower sales, 24% expect lower capital expenditures, and 19% expect lower prices due to US trade policy changes.
  • 14% of firms cited US trade policy as a top-3 source of uncertainty, up 2 ppts from May but below April levels.
  • Overall uncertainty held steady, with 56% of firms reporting high or very high levels of uncertainty.

  Source
• Decision Maker Panel Survey: May 2025 2025-06-05 04:30

  Firms reported output price inflation at 3.5% in the three months to May, unchanged from April, while year-ahead own-price expectations fell to 3.7% (-0.2pp).

  • CPI inflation expectations remained steady at 3.2% (1-year) and 2.8% (3-year).
  • Annual wage growth slowed slightly to 4.7% (-0.1pp), and year-ahead wage growth expectations dropped to 3.7% (-0.1pp); single-month expectation rose to 3.6% (+0.1pp).
  • 22% of firms expect sales to decline due to US trade policy changes; 20% expect lower capex, and 15% expect lower prices.
  • Only 12% of firms cited US trade policy as a top-3 uncertainty source, down from 22% in April.
  • Overall uncertainty declined -1pp, with 56% of firms still reporting high or very high uncertainty.

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• Decision Maker Panel Survey: April 2025 2025-05-08 04:30

  Firms reported output price inflation at 3.5% in the three months to April, down -0.1pp from the prior period, while year-ahead own-price inflation expectations fell to 3.8% (-0.1pp).

  • CPI inflation expectations remained steady at 3.2% for one year ahead and 2.8% for three years ahead.
  • Annual wage growth was 4.8%, down -0.2pp; year-ahead wage growth expectations dropped to 3.8% (-0.1pp).
  • The single-month wage growth expectation fell to 3.5%, the lowest since November.
  • 68% of firms expected no impact from new US tariffs, 31% anticipated lower sales, and only 1% expected a sales increase.
  • 23% of firms listed US tariffs as a top-three source of uncertainty, with concern rising after the announced 90-day pause.

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