Decision Maker Panel Survey

Data Macro

Source: Bank of England
Source Link: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): September 4th, 2025 4:30 AM

Latest Updates

Firms reported annual own-price inflation at 3.6% in the three months to July, up 0.1 pp from June, while year-ahead own-price expectations also edged up to 3.7% (+0.1 pp).
- Year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose to 3.2% (+0.1 pp), while three-year expectations held steady at 2.8%.
- Annual wage growth rose to 4.7% (+0.1 pp), but firms still expect it to slow to 3.6% over the next year.
- Employment growth turned negative at -0.1%, and expectations for the year ahead softened to 0.5% (-0.1 pp).
- 24% of firms expect US trade policy to lower sales, and 20% anticipate reduced capital spending.
- Overall uncertainty declined slightly to 55%, while only 10% of firms cited US trade policy as a top-3 concern (down -4 pp from June).
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Firms reported output price inflation at 3.5% in the three months to June, unchanged from May, while year-ahead own-price expectations edged down to 3.6% (-0.1pp).
- CPI inflation expectations fell to 3.1% (-0.1pp) for the year ahead and held steady at 2.8% for the three-year horizon.
- Annual wage growth declined slightly to 4.6% (-0.1pp), and year-ahead wage expectations fell to 3.6% (-0.1pp); single-month expectation was unchanged at 3.6%.
- 29% of firms expect lower sales, 24% expect lower capital expenditures, and 19% expect lower prices due to US trade policy changes.
- 14% of firms cited US trade policy as a top-3 source of uncertainty, up 2 ppts from May but below April levels.
- Overall uncertainty held steady, with 56% of firms reporting high or very high levels of uncertainty.
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Firms reported output price inflation at 3.5% in the three months to May, unchanged from April, while year-ahead own-price expectations fell to 3.7% (-0.2pp).
- CPI inflation expectations remained steady at 3.2% (1-year) and 2.8% (3-year).
- Annual wage growth slowed slightly to 4.7% (-0.1pp), and year-ahead wage growth expectations dropped to 3.7% (-0.1pp); single-month expectation rose to 3.6% (+0.1pp).
- 22% of firms expect sales to decline due to US trade policy changes; 20% expect lower capex, and 15% expect lower prices.
- Only 12% of firms cited US trade policy as a top-3 uncertainty source, down from 22% in April.
- Overall uncertainty declined -1pp, with 56% of firms still reporting high or very high uncertainty.
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Firms reported output price inflation at 3.5% in the three months to April, down -0.1pp from the prior period, while year-ahead own-price inflation expectations fell to 3.8% (-0.1pp).
- CPI inflation expectations remained steady at 3.2% for one year ahead and 2.8% for three years ahead.
- Annual wage growth was 4.8%, down -0.2pp; year-ahead wage growth expectations dropped to 3.8% (-0.1pp).
- The single-month wage growth expectation fell to 3.5%, the lowest since November.
- 68% of firms expected no impact from new US tariffs, 31% anticipated lower sales, and only 1% expected a sales increase.
- 23% of firms listed US tariffs as a top-three source of uncertainty, with concern rising after the announced 90-day pause.
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Firms reported output price inflation at 3.6% in the three months to March, down -0.1pp from the prior period. Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected at 3.9%, also down -0.1pp.
- CPI inflation expectations for one year ahead rose to 3.2% (from 3.1%), while three-year expectations remained at 2.8%.
- Annual wage growth was 5.0%, down -0.2pp from the three months to February.
- Year-ahead wage growth expectations were unchanged at 3.9%, implying a -1.1pp decline over 12 months.
- Employment growth slowed to 0.4% in the three months to March, with firms expecting 0.1% growth over the next year.
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Firms reported that their output prices rose by an average annual rate of 3.7% in the three months to February, 0.1 percentage points lower than the three months to January. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 4.0% in the three months to February, 0.1 percentage points higher than firms reported in the three months to January. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to increase slightly over the next year, based on three-month averages.
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The January DMP survey reveals a mixed economic outlook, with firms maintaining steady output price inflation while expecting wage growth to decline and employment growth to stall.
- Current output price inflation remained stable at 3.8% in the three months to January, with firms projecting a slight increase to 3.9% for the year ahead - indicating persistent pricing pressures across the economy
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations saw modest increases, with one-year ahead predictions rising to 3.0% from 2.8%, while three-year ahead expectations increased slightly to 2.8%
- Wage growth showed signs of cooling, with current annual growth at 5.3% (down 0.1 percentage points) and expected to decline significantly to 3.9% over the next year - representing a projected 1.4 percentage point decrease
- Employment trends indicate a significant slowdown, with current annual growth at just 0.4% and firms expecting zero growth in the year ahead - marking a notable decline from previous months and a 1.1 percentage point reduction since October
- In response to increased employer National Insurance contributions, businesses plan multiple adjustments: 62% expect to lower profit margins, 56% plan to raise prices, 53% anticipate reduced employment, and 38% expect to implement lower wages than originally planned
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The UK Decision Maker Panel survey found that output prices increased by 3.8% YoY on average in the three months to December, down -0.1 ppts from November. Year-ahead own-price inflation is also at 3.8% in December, but this was an increase of 0.1 ppts from November.

CPI inflation expectations for the year ahead ticked up 0.1 ppts to 2.8%, and for three years ahead, ticked up 0.1 ppts to 2.7%. Firms perceived CPI inflation of about 2.5% in December. The data suggests that firms continue to expect inflationary pressures to stay at or above current levels in the medium term.

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