Cox Automotive US Auto Sales Forecast

Outlook Transportation

Source: Cox Automotive
Source Link: https://www.coxautoinc.com/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): September 26th, 2025 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

The new-vehicle sales pace in August 2025 is forecast at 16.0 million (SAAR), down from July’s 16.4 million but well above last year’s 15.1 million, with EV demand driving the gains.
- Sales volume is projected at 1.46 million, up +3.9% MoM and +2.3% YoY, aided by one extra selling day versus July.
- EV sales surged in July (+26.4% MoM; +19.7% YoY to 130,082 units), the second-highest monthly total ever, with August expected to continue strong as buyers move ahead of tax credit expiration.
- Incentives on EVs reached record highs in July, with 11 brands achieving their best EV sales of the year.
- Market conditions remain supported by low unemployment, a strong stock market, and muted tariff-driven price increases.
- Looking ahead, sales momentum is expected to slow in Q4 as EV tax credits expire, inventories tighten, and auto prices gradually rise.
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The new-vehicle sales pace in July is expected to finish near 15.6 million, up modestly from last month’s 15.3 million level and down from last July’s 15.8 million pace.
- Sales volume in July is forecast to reach 1.30 million, up 2.5% from last month and 1.2% from last year.
- Consumer demand for new vehicles remains steady at a slower pace, with little upside expected in the coming months.
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Mid-Year Review Presentation:

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May’s new-vehicle sales pace is forecast to reach approximately 16.0 million, up slightly compared to last May’s 15.8 million pace but down from April’s strong 17.3 million level.
- The sales volume of new vehicles for May is projected to reach 1.50 million units, representing an increase of 3.2% compared to the same period last year and a rise of 2.5% from April.
- May is likely the last month to exhibit pull-ahead sales gains, and sales momentum is expected to slow further in the months ahead.
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April’s new-vehicle sales pace is forecast to reach approximately 16.4 million, up 0.4 million from last April’s 16 million pace but down from March’s surprising 17.8 million level.
- The new-vehicle sales volume is expected to reach 1.395 million in April, up 4.6% year over year but down 12% from last month.
- A surge in “pre-tariff” buying is negatively impacting inventory levels, which will likely push prices higher in April and keep stronger sales growth in check.
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2025 Cox Automotive Market Insights and Outlook

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Cox Automotive US Auto Sales Forecast: February 2025 2025-02-24 10:00