Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index

Data Transportation

Source: Cox Automotive
Source Link: https://www.coxautoinc.com/
Frequency: Quarterly
Next Release(s): April 3rd, 2026 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

The Q1 2026 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) showed a seasonal rebound in dealer optimism, with the current market index rising to 41 (from 38 in Q4) while expectations for the next three months jumped to 56 (from 42), reflecting improved outlook heading into the spring selling season.
- Current market sentiment improved QoQ to 41 (Q4: 38) but remained below the neutral threshold of 50, indicating that while conditions have improved modestly, dealers still view the present market environment as relatively weak.
- Franchised dealers reported a higher current market index of 48, suggesting somewhat stronger sentiment among this group compared with the broader dealer base, though still short of expansionary territory.
- Future expectations increased sharply to 56 (Q4: 42), marking a strong QoQ rebound as dealers anticipate stronger demand, easing interest rates, and improved consumer confidence during the spring selling season.
- Customer traffic weakened further, with the traffic index falling to 28, the lowest reading since pandemic-era lows in Q2 2020 (13) and Q1 2021 (28), indicating subdued shopper activity across dealerships.
- Profitability conditions deteriorated as the profit index dropped -4 pts QoQ to 32, remaining well below historical norms and reflecting ongoing pressure from rising costs and affordability constraints.
- The sales environment was mixed as the new-vehicle sales index declined to 48 and remained below 50 for a second consecutive quarter, while used-vehicle sales sentiment improved modestly, supported mainly by franchised dealers.
- Inventory conditions stabilized with the new-vehicle inventory index at 56, indicating continued growth but at a slower pace, while used-vehicle inventory remained tight at 45, contributing to ongoing pricing pressure.
- Dealer sentiment toward electric vehicle sales deteriorated further, with the EV sales index falling to a record low of 33 and franchised dealer sentiment dropping to 25 (from 51 YoY), while expectations for future EV sales remained subdued at 28.
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The Q4 2025 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) shows the current market index falling -5 pts to 38 (from 43 in Q3), with the future outlook down -4 pts to 42, underscoring a broad deterioration in dealer sentiment heading into year-end.
- Customer traffic weakened sharply, with the overall index dropping to 31 and both in-person (29) and digital (40) traffic reaching record lows for franchised dealers, indicating a significant pullback in shopper activity across channels.
- Profitability sentiment slipped to 36 overall, with franchised dealers at 44 and independents at 33, reflecting continued margin compression from rising costs and soft demand; independents showed the most pronounced pressure.
- The sales environment softened as new vehicle sales sentiment dipped to 49 and used vehicle sales to 42; franchised dealers held relatively better at 49 (new) and 53 (used), while independent dealers reported especially weak used sales at 39.
- Inventory conditions showed mixed dynamics: new vehicle inventory edged up to 59, signaling improving availability for franchised dealers, while used vehicle inventory remained tight at 43 overall and 41 for independents.
- Economic sentiment declined to 39 (from 43 in Q3), with franchised dealers at 44 and independents at 37, demonstrating broad concern about macroeconomic headwinds.
- EV sentiment deteriorated sharply, with franchised dealers’ future EV sales sentiment plunging to 24 (from 33) and EV leasing sentiment dropping to 27 (from 36), reflecting heightened uncertainty tied to expiring tax credits and weaker confidence in the segment.
- The report notes that after tariff-driven strength in Q2 and an EV surge in Q3, Q4 marked a clear slowdown, though improving consumer confidence and easing auto loan rates could help sentiment stabilize in early 2026.
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The Q3 2025 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) shows the current market index at 43, up one point from Q2, indicating sentiment remains steady though still below the neutral threshold of 50.
- The market outlook index for the next three months rose slightly to 46, with franchised dealers at 55 and independents unchanged, suggesting cautious optimism despite mixed conditions.
- Customer traffic weakened, with the index dropping from 37 to 33; franchised dealer traffic fell sharply from 50 to 43, while independents slipped from 32 to 30.
- Dealer profitability declined modestly, with the index falling from 39 to 38, while costs remained elevated at 70, the highest level in the survey.
- Inventory conditions improved, with the index rising to 57 from 50, though the sales environment index eased from 62 to 58, adding pressure on dealers to lower prices.
- The EV outlook fell to a record-low index of 30, reflecting concerns over the upcoming expiration of government tax credits despite strong July EV sales.
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The Q2 2025 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) shows the current market index at 42, down slightly from 44 in Q1, indicating that more dealers perceive the market as weak rather than strong.
- After two quarters of improvement, the market outlook index fell from 58 to 45, indicating that more dealers expect weak conditions in the next three months.
- According to the Q2 2025 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index, the U.S. Economy – mentioned by 51% of all dealers – is the top factor holding back business, moving back above Interest Rates (42%).
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