Conference Board Leading Economic Index

Data Macro

Source: Conference Board
Source Link: https://www.conference-board.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): October 20th, 2025 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US fell -0.5% MoM to 98.4 in August 2025, its steepest drop since April, and is down -2.8% over the past six months, pointing to persistent headwinds.
- The decline was broad-based, with negative contributions from consumer expectations (-0.19 pts), ISM New Orders (-0.08 pts), building permits (-0.11 pts), average weekly hours in manufacturing (-0.12 pts), and higher initial jobless claims (-0.06 pts).
- Only stock prices (+0.07 pts) and the Leading Credit Index (+0.05 pts) contributed positively in August, while the yield spread turned slightly negative for the first time since April.
- The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose +0.2% MoM to 115.0, extending its six-month gain to +0.6%, though growth slowed compared with the previous period (+0.9%).
- The Lagging Index (LAG) edged up +0.1% MoM to 120.0 in August, with a six-month gain of +0.7%, more than double the +0.3% increase recorded previously.
- The Conference Board noted that tariffs have already weighed on H1 2025 growth and will remain a drag on GDP in H2 2025 and into H1 2026, with US GDP projected to grow just +1.6% in 2025, down from +2.8% in 2024.
Source
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) edged down -0.1% MoM to 98.7 in July 2025, extending its six-month decline to -2.7% and triggering another recession signal.
- June’s LEI was revised to -0.3% MoM, with pessimistic consumer expectations and weak new orders offsetting support from stock prices and lower jobless claims.
- The six-month contraction of -2.7% (Jan–Jul 2025) was steeper than the prior -1.0% decline (Jul 2024–Jan 2025).
- The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose +0.2% MoM to 114.9, with all components except industrial production improving; CEI is up +0.9% in H1 2025.
- The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was flat at 119.9, but its six-month growth turned positive at +0.9%, reversing a -0.1% decline in the prior period.
- The Conference Board expects US GDP growth at +1.6% in 2025, though tariffs are projected to weigh on activity in H2 and slow growth to 1.3% in 2026.
Source
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined -0.3% MoM to 98.8 in June 2025, marking a -2.8% drop over H1 2025 and triggering a third consecutive recession signal based on the six-month diffusion index.
- May’s LEI was revised up to 0.0% from the originally reported -0.1%.
- Weakness in consumer expectations, new manufacturing orders, and rising jobless claims outweighed support from rising equity prices.
- The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.3% MoM to 115.1, with all four components improving; CEI is up 0.8% in H1 2025.
- The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was flat at 119.9, but the six-month rate turned positive at +1.4% after falling -0.8% in H2 2024.
- The Conference Board expects 2025 GDP growth at 1.6%, with tariffs likely to weigh on H2 consumption.
Source
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.1% MoM to 99.0 in May 2025, marking its third consecutive monthly decline and down -2.7% over the past six months.
- April’s LEI was revised lower to -1.4% MoM from -1.0% previously reported.
- Weakness came from initial jobless claims, consumer expectations, new manufacturing orders, and housing permits; equity markets were a positive contributor.
- The Coincident Index rose 0.1% MoM to 115.1 and is up 1.3% over the past six months, supported by gains in employment and income.
- The Lagging Index increased 0.4% MoM to 119.6 and is up 0.8% over the past six months, reversing a previous six-month decline.
- The Conference Board projects 2025 GDP growth at 1.6%, with risks tilted toward further deceleration due to persistent tariff effects.
Source
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index fell -1.0% MoM in April to 99.4, the largest monthly drop since March 2023, and is down -2.0% over the past six months.
- March’s LEI decline was revised down to -0.8% MoM from the initially reported -0.7%.
- Consumer expectations worsened for the fourth consecutive month, and building permits and manufacturing hours turned negative.
- The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.1% MoM to 114.8 and is up 1.1% over the past six months.
- The Lagging Economic Index increased 0.3% MoM to 119.3, reversing a previous six-month decline with a +0.8% gain over the latest six months.
- The Conference Board expects US GDP to grow 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with Q3 likely bearing the brunt of tariff impacts.
Source
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index fell -0.7% MoM in March to 100.5, a larger-than-expected drop compared to projections of -0.5% MoM.
- The LEI also fell by -1.2% in the six-month period ending in March 2025, a smaller rate of decline than its -2.3% contraction over the previous six months (March–September 2024).
- The Coincident Economic Index increased 0.1% MoM to 114.4, and the Lagging Economic Index fell -0.1% MoM to 119.1.
- Conference Board: “March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: 1) consumer expectations dropped further, 2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and 3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start.”
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.3% MoM in February to 101.1, a slightly larger decline than the -0.2% MoM drop that was expected.
- Overall, the LEI fell by -1.0% in the six-month period ending February 2025, less than half of its rate of decline of -2.1% over the previous six months (February–August 2024).
- The Coincident Economic Index grew 0.3% MoM to 114.7, and the Lagging Economic Index grew 0.4% MoM to 119.1.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.3% MoM to 101.5 in January, a larger decline than expected.
- Overall, the LEI recorded a -0.9% decline in the six-month period ending January 2025, much less than its -1.7% decline over the previous six months.
- The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) grew 0.3% MoM to 114.3, and the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) grew 0.5% MoM to 119.3.
- The LAG’s six-month change turned positive to 0.3% growth for the first time since the summer of 2024.
The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index fell -0.1% MoM to 101.6 in December after an 0.4% MoM rise in November. The LEI declined -1.3% in the second half of 2024, up from -1.7% in the first half of 2024.

The Coincident Economic Index increased 0.4% MoM to 114.1, and the Lagging Economic Index edged up 0.1% MoM to 118.5.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index grew 0.3% MoM in November (vs expectations of an -0.1% MoM decline). Over the last six months, the LEI is down -1.6%, an improvement over the -1.9% change in the previous six month period. The monthly increase was the first increase since February 2022. The Coincident Economic Index grew 0.1% MoM, and the Lagging Economic Index grew 0.3% MoM.