China GDP | MTS Insights

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China’s GDP grew 5.2% YoY in Q2 2025, down from 5.4% YoY in Q1 2025 but slightly ahead of expectations of 5.1% YoY.
- On a quarterly basis, Q2 GDP was up 1.1% QoQ, above expectations of a 0.9% QoQ but still the slowest expansion since Q2 2024.
- The secondary industry grew 5.3% YoY, with manufacturing up 7.0% and equipment manufacturing up 10.2%.
- Per capita disposable income increased 5.3% YoY, and in real terms, was up 5.4% YoY.
- The service sector rose 5.5% YoY, with IT services up 11.1% and leasing/business services up 9.6%.
- Retail sales increased 5.0% YoY in H1, led by household appliances (+30.7% YoY) and gold/jewelry (+11.3% YoY); online sales rose 8.5% YoY.
- Fixed asset investment rose 2.8% YoY; excluding real estate, it rose 6.6%. Manufacturing investment was up 7.5% YoY, while real estate investment fell -11.2% YoY.
- Exports rose 7.2% YoY and imports fell -2.7% YoY in H1; June exports and imports were up 7.2% and 2.3% YoY, respectively.
Source
Chinese GDP growth was 1.2% QoQ and 5.4% YoY in Q1 2025. The quarterly rate was below expectations of 1.4% QoQ growth, but the annual rate was above expectations of a 5.1% YoY increase.
- The mining & extraction sector grew 3.5% YoY while the manufacturing sector expanded 5.9% YoY and the services sector expanded 5.3% YoY.
- In agriculture, planting activity rose 4.0% YoY and meat production increased 2.0% YoY.
- Foreign trade expanded 1.3% YoY in Q1 with exports up 6.9% YoY, while imports fell -6.0% YoY.
- Per capita disposable income rose 5.5% YoY nominal and 5.6% YoY real.
- Urban nominal income rose 4.9% YoY, while rural nominal income rose 6.2% YoY.
Source
Chinese GDP growth is estimated at 1.6% QoQ and 5.4% YoY (vs 5.0% YoY expected) in Q4 2024, and for the full year 2024 is estimated at 5.0%. That quarterly growth rate is the fastest growth since Q2 2023. In 2024, growth was driven by the service sector (tertiary) and the manufacturing sector (secondary) which were up 5.0% YoY and 5.3% YoY respectively. The resource extraction & agricultural sector (primary) saw slower growth of 3.5% YoY.

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