Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions

Data Macro

Source: Chicago Fed
Source Link: https://www.chicagofed.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): October 22nd, 2025 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index fell to -14 in September from +1 in August, signaling below-trend growth and broad deterioration across sectors.
- The Manufacturing Activity Index declined to -10 (Aug: +10), while the Nonmanufacturing Index fell further to -19 (Aug: -5), showing weakness in both segments.
- Outlooks for the next 12 months turned more pessimistic, with 47% of respondents expecting a decrease in overall economic activity.
- Hiring conditions softened as the current hiring index fell further to -26, and hiring expectations moved into negative territory at -38, pointing to weaker labor demand ahead.
- Capital spending expectations improved slightly but remained negative, suggesting firms remain cautious about investment despite some planned increases.
- Labor cost pressures rose, but nonlabor cost pressures eased; both indexes stayed negative, reflecting continued cost constraints despite mixed trends across categories.
The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index improved to +1 in August from -22 in July, suggesting growth was near trend after a sharp contraction the prior month.
- The Manufacturing Activity Index rose to +10 (Jul: +3), while the Nonmanufacturing Index climbed to -5 (Jul: -39), pointing to broad improvement across sectors.
- Hiring conditions improved; the current hiring index remained negative at -17, but hiring expectations turned slightly positive at +1.
- Capital spending expectations weakened further, with the index at -29, signaling firms remain cautious on investment.
- Labor cost pressures eased to -7, while nonlabor costs remained under pressure at -45, with 51% citing higher materials costs and 38% noting energy increases.
- Business sentiment improved modestly, with 35% of respondents expecting higher economic activity over the next 12 months.
The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index fell sharply to -23 in July 2025 from -3 in June, signaling that economic growth was well below trend.
- The Manufacturing Activity Index declined to +3 (from +7), while the Nonmanufacturing Index plunged to -40 (from -9).
- Hiring pace deteriorated further; current hiring index fell to -32, but planned hiring over the next 12 months improved slightly to -17.
- Capital spending expectations rose but remained negative, with the index at -16.
- Labor and nonlabor cost pressure indexes increased but stayed in contraction territory, with cost pressures most acute in energy, equipment, and materials.
- Only 37% of respondents expected increased U.S. economic activity over the next 12 months, indicating sentiment remained pessimistic overall.
The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index declined to -3 in June from -1 in May, indicating that economic growth remained near trend but with slightly weaker momentum.
- The Manufacturing Activity Index rebounded to +6 (from -21), while the Nonmanufacturing Index fell to -9 (from +13).
- 53% of respondents expect a decrease in economic activity over the next 12 months, with the overall economic outlook deteriorating.
- Hiring pace decreased further; both current and expected hiring indexes remained negative.
- Capital spending expectations rose but stayed in negative territory.
- Labor and nonlabor cost pressures both declined and remained in contraction territory.
The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index rose to -3 in May from -20 in April, indicating economic growth was near trend.
- The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index fell to -21 in May from -6 in April, while the Nonmanufacturing Activity Index increased to +11 from -23.
- 45% of respondents still expect a decrease in economic activity over the next 12 months despite a modestly improved outlook.
- Hiring pace and expectations improved but remained in contraction territory.
- Capital spending expectations declined further, with the index staying negative.
- Labor cost pressures were unchanged, and nonlabor cost pressures increased, though both indexes remained negative.
The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Activity Index decreased to -21 in April from -10 in March, suggesting that economic growth was below trend.
- The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index decreased to -12 in April from +12 in March, and the CFSEC Nonmanufacturing Activity Index decreased to -22 in April from -21 in March.
- The Activity Outlook index dropped -18 pts to -32, now down -52 pts in the last two months. 68% of respondents expect a decrease in economic activity.
- The current and planned hiring indexes were both contracting sharply, at -29 and -25 respectively.
- Respondents’ expectations for the pace of capital spending over the next 12 months increased, but the capital spending expectations index remained negative at -25.
- The labor cost pressures index increased, as did the nonlabor cost pressures index. Both cost pressures indexes remained negative.
The Chicago Fed CFSEC Activity Index fell from -9 in February to -10 in March.
- The Manufacturing Activity Index jumped 8 pts to 12, and the Nonmanufacturing Activity Index dropped -9 pts to -21.
- The economic outlook index dropped to -32 in March from 2 in February as 54% of respondents expected a decrease in activity over the next 12 months.
- The Planned Capital Spending index dropped -12 pts to -30, a new 12-month low.
- The labor cost pressures index increased, but the nonlabor cost pressures index decreased. Both cost pressures indexes remained negative.
The Chicago Fed CFSEC Activity Index fell -2 pts to -10 in February.
- The Manufacturing Activity Index fell -6 pts to 0, and the Nonmanufacturing Activity Index fell further, down -4 pts to -13.
- Respondents’ outlooks for the U.S. economy for the next 12 months deteriorated, but remained optimistic on balance. 38% of respondents expected a decrease in economic activity over the next 12 months.
- The pace of current hiring decreased, as did respondents’ expectations for the pace of hiring over the next 12 months. Both hiring indexes remained negative.
- The labor cost pressures index decreased, as did the nonlabor cost pressures index. Both cost pressures indexes remained negative.
The Chicago Fed CFSEC Activity Index fell -12 pts to -9 in January.
- The Manufacturing Activity Index increased 6 pts to 3, and the Nonmanufacturing Activity Index tanked -20 pts to -9.
- Respondents’ outlooks for the US economy for the next 12 months deteriorated, but remained optimistic on balance. 49% of respondents expected an increase in economic activity over the next 12 months.
- The pace of current hiring increased, and respondents’ expectations for the pace of hiring over the next 12 months were unchanged. Both hiring indexes remained negative.
- The labor cost pressures index increased, but the nonlabor cost pressures index decreased. Both cost pressures indexes remained negative.
The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index rose to -3 in May from -20 in April, indicating economic growth was near trend.
- The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index fell to -21 in May from -6 in April, while the Nonmanufacturing Activity Index increased to +11 from -23.
- 45% of respondents still expect a decrease in economic activity over the next 12 months despite a modestly improved outlook.
- Hiring pace and expectations improved but remained in contraction territory.
- Capital spending expectations declined further, with the index staying negative.
- Labor cost pressures were unchanged, and nonlabor cost pressures increased, though both indexes remained negative.