Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)

Data Macro

Source: Chicago Fed
Source Link: https://www.chicagofed.org/
Frequency: Semi-Monthly
Next Release(s): October 31st, 2025 8:30 AM

Latest Updates

The Chicago Fed's final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in September is 0.5% MoM and 4.3% YoY, revised up from the preliminary nowcast of 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+36 bps) and Census data (+23 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negative contribution of -12 bps.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is confirmed at 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.2% MoM as the final increase in retail sales is expected to outpace price growth.
The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in September is 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, which would be a deceleration from growth of 4.9% YoY in August.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+16 bps) and Census data (+27 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negative contribution of -17 bps.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.0% MoM as price growth is forecasted to match the rise in sales.
The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in August is 0.4% MoM and 4.3% YoY, revised down from the initial estimate of a 0.6% MoM and 4.5% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from all data sources: transactions (+15 bps), foot traffic & sentiment data (+17 bps), and Census data (+10 bps).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is unchanged on a monthly basis at 0.3% MoM but revised up slightly on an annual basis to 1.0% YoY (due to CPI being released last week).
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales for August was adjusted down to 0.1% MoM from the initial estimate of 0.3% MoM, the weakest since the declines seen in May and April.
The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in August is 0.6% MoM and 4.5% YoY, which would be a strong acceleration from growth of 3.7% YoY in July.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from all data sources: transactions (+26 bps), foot traffic & sentiment data (+18 bps), and Census data (+15 bps).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.3% MoM, matching the pace seen in July.
The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in July is 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, revised up from the initial estimate of a -0.1% MoM drop and an annual gain of 2.9% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on a negative contribution from transaction data (-16 bps) and a positive contribution from Census data (+21 bps). Foot traffic & sentiment data made a negligible contribution.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.0% MoM and 0.6% YoY (revised down from 0.2% MoM and 0.8% YoY).
- With very little change to prices and only a small sales gain, inflation-adjusted sales are expected to be flat at 0.0% (revised up from -0.3% MoM).
The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in July is -0.1% MoM and 2.9% YoY which would be the lowest since September 2024.
- The nowcast is based on negative contributions from foot traffic & sentiment (-13 bps) and transaction (-17 bps) with census data contributing 25 bps.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.2% MoM and 0.8% YoY.
- With goods prices rising, the inflation-adjusted nowcast is even weaker at -0.3% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in June is +0.4% MoM and +3.3% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of +0.3% MoM.
- The nowcast is based almost entirely on transaction data (43 bps contribution) while foot traffic & sentiment data offset (-7 bps contribution).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 0.4% YoY, revised up from 0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY.
- With prices and sales growth about equal, the inflation adjusted rise in retail sales was basically nothing (0.0% MoM).
The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in June is +0.3 MoM and 3.3% YoY which would be down from 3.5% YoY in May.
- The final May nowcast was off significantly as actual retail sales were reported at -0.3% MoM, well below the +0.3% MoM CARTS estimate.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions and census data where are partly offset by foot traffic & sentiment.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY.
- With prices basically flat, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be +0.3% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in May is 0.3% MoM and 4.4% YoY, revised down slightly from an initial estimate of 0.4% MoM.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from all data sources: transactions (14 bps), foot traffic & sentiment (+9 bps), and Census data (+10 bps).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth remains unchanged at 0.0% MoM. The annual rate has been revised slightly lower to -0.2% YoY from -0.1% YoY previously.
- With prices expected to decline slightly, inflation adjusted retail sales are expected to grow 0.4% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in May is +0.4 MoM and 4.4% YoY which would be up from 4.2% YoY in April.
- The final April nowcast was off significantly as actual retail sales were reported at +0.1% MoM, well above the -0.6% MoM CARTS estimate.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from all segments of the nowcast including foot traffic & sentiment and transactions.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.0% MoM and -0.1% YoY.
- With prices flat, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be +0.4% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in April is -0.6% MoM and 3.2% YoY, revised down from an initial estimate of -0.2% MoM.
- This would be the second monthly decline in sales in the last four months.
- Most of the nowcast is a result from weak transactions data (-53 bps) and weak foot traffic data (-28 bps) while Census data offsets some of the negativity (+21 bps).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.1% MoM and -0.4% YoY, revised down from 0.2% MoM and -0.3% YoY.
- With prices declining, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be -0.7% MoM, revised down from the initial estimate of -0.5% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in April is -0.2% MoM and 3.2% YoY which would be down from 4.1% YoY in March.
- This would be the second monthly decline in sales in the last four months.
- Most of the nowcast is a result from weak transactions data (-53 bps) while Census data (+31 bps) was a positive contributor to the forecast and foot traffic data was insignificant.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.2% MoM and -0.3% YoY.
- With prices declining, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be -0.5% MoM.