Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)

Data Macro

Source: Chicago Fed
Source Link: https://www.chicagofed.org/
Frequency: Semi-Monthly
Next Release(s): March 16th, 2026 8:30 AM

Latest Updates

The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in February is 0.2% MoM and 3.5% YoY, which would be a deceleration from growth of 3.9% YoY in January.
- The February nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+17 bps) and Census data (+11 bps) offset by foot traffic & sentiment data (-8 bps).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth in February is 0.2% MoM and 1.6% YoY (up from 1.3% YoY in January.
- With price growth ahead of nominal sales growth, real sales growth is nowcasted at -0.1% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in January is -0.1% MoM and 3.6% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.1% MoM and 4.6% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on negative contributions from transactions (-3.3 bps) and foot traffic & sentiment (-13 bps) while Census data made a positive contribution of 7.4 bps.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.0% MoM and 1.3% YoY, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 0.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is -0.1% MoM, down from the preliminary nowcast of 0.1% MoM.
The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in January is 0.1% MoM and 4.6% YoY, which would be an acceleration from growth of 4.1% YoY in December.
- December retail sales data has yet to be released, and the nowcast is set at 0.5% MoM and 4.1% YoY, slightly lower than the 0.6% MoM increase in the final December nowcast.
- The January nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+23 bps) and Census data (+14 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negative contribution of -25 bps.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth in January is 0.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY (down from 1.7% YoY in December).
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.1% MoM as there was no change in prices.
The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in December is 0.6% MoM and 4.1% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+32 bps) and Census data (+21 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negligible contribution of +2 bp
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 1.7% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.3% MoM, up slightly from 0.2% MoM, as nominal sales growth outpaces price growth.
The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in December is 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY, which would be an deceleration from growth of 4.3% YoY in November.
- November retail sales data has yet to be released, and the nowcast is set at 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY.
- The December nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+22 bps) and Census data (+14 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negligible contribution of 3 bp.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.2% MoM as nominal sales growth outpaced price growth.
The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in November is 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (17+ bps) and Census data (+18 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negligible contribution of -2 bp.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 1.8% YoY, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 0.4% MoM.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.0% MoM as price growth is forecasted to account for basically all of the growth in retail sales.
The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in November is 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY, which would be an acceleration from growth of 4.1% YoY in October.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+21 bps) and Census data (+15 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negligible contribution of 1 bp.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.4% MoM and 2.3% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.0% MoM as price growth is forecasted to account for basically all of the growth in retail sales.
The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in October is 0.4% MoM (revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.3% MoM) and 4.2% YoY, which would be slightly higher than 4.1% YoY in September.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+30 bps) and Census data (+12 bps) with foot traffic & sentiment (-3 bps) having essentially no effect.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.1% MoM and 2.0% YoY, revised up slightly from the preliminary estimate of 0.1% MoM and 1.9% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.3% MoM as price growth is forecasted to be weaker than the rise in sales.
The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in October is 0.3% MoM and 4.2% YoY, which would be most unchanged from growth of 4.2% YoY in September.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+20 bps) and Census data (+15 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negative contribution of -6 bps.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.1% MoM and 1.9% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.2% MoM as price growth is forecasted to be weaker than the rise in sales.
The Chicago Fed's final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in September is 0.5% MoM and 4.3% YoY, revised up from the preliminary nowcast of 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+36 bps) and Census data (+23 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negative contribution of -12 bps.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is confirmed at 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.2% MoM as the final increase in retail sales is expected to outpace price growth.
The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in September is 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, which would be a deceleration from growth of 4.9% YoY in August.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+16 bps) and Census data (+27 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negative contribution of -17 bps.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.0% MoM as price growth is forecasted to match the rise in sales.
The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in August is 0.4% MoM and 4.3% YoY, revised down from the initial estimate of a 0.6% MoM and 4.5% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from all data sources: transactions (+15 bps), foot traffic & sentiment data (+17 bps), and Census data (+10 bps).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is unchanged on a monthly basis at 0.3% MoM but revised up slightly on an annual basis to 1.0% YoY (due to CPI being released last week).
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales for August was adjusted down to 0.1% MoM from the initial estimate of 0.3% MoM, the weakest since the declines seen in May and April.