Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)

Data Macro

Source: Chicago Fed
Source Link: https://www.chicagofed.org/
Frequency: Semi-Monthly
Next Release(s): September 1st, 2025 8:30 AM

Latest Updates

The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in July is 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, revised up from the initial estimate of a -0.1% MoM drop and an annual gain of 2.9% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on a negative contribution from transaction data (-16 bps) and a positive contribution from Census data (+21 bps). Foot traffic & sentiment data made a negligible contribution.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.0% MoM and 0.6% YoY (revised down from 0.2% MoM and 0.8% YoY).
- With very little change to prices and only a small sales gain, inflation-adjusted sales are expected to be flat at 0.0% (revised up from -0.3% MoM).
The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in July is -0.1% MoM and 2.9% YoY which would be the lowest since September 2024.
- The nowcast is based on negative contributions from foot traffic & sentiment (-13 bps) and transaction (-17 bps) with census data contributing 25 bps.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.2% MoM and 0.8% YoY.
- With goods prices rising, the inflation-adjusted nowcast is even weaker at -0.3% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in June is +0.4% MoM and +3.3% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of +0.3% MoM.
- The nowcast is based almost entirely on transaction data (43 bps contribution) while foot traffic & sentiment data offset (-7 bps contribution).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 0.4% YoY, revised up from 0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY.
- With prices and sales growth about equal, the inflation adjusted rise in retail sales was basically nothing (0.0% MoM).
The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in June is +0.3 MoM and 3.3% YoY which would be down from 3.5% YoY in May.
- The final May nowcast was off significantly as actual retail sales were reported at -0.3% MoM, well below the +0.3% MoM CARTS estimate.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions and census data where are partly offset by foot traffic & sentiment.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY.
- With prices basically flat, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be +0.3% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in May is 0.3% MoM and 4.4% YoY, revised down slightly from an initial estimate of 0.4% MoM.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from all data sources: transactions (14 bps), foot traffic & sentiment (+9 bps), and Census data (+10 bps).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth remains unchanged at 0.0% MoM. The annual rate has been revised slightly lower to -0.2% YoY from -0.1% YoY previously.
- With prices expected to decline slightly, inflation adjusted retail sales are expected to grow 0.4% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in May is +0.4 MoM and 4.4% YoY which would be up from 4.2% YoY in April.
- The final April nowcast was off significantly as actual retail sales were reported at +0.1% MoM, well above the -0.6% MoM CARTS estimate.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from all segments of the nowcast including foot traffic & sentiment and transactions.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.0% MoM and -0.1% YoY.
- With prices flat, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be +0.4% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in April is -0.6% MoM and 3.2% YoY, revised down from an initial estimate of -0.2% MoM.
- This would be the second monthly decline in sales in the last four months.
- Most of the nowcast is a result from weak transactions data (-53 bps) and weak foot traffic data (-28 bps) while Census data offsets some of the negativity (+21 bps).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.1% MoM and -0.4% YoY, revised down from 0.2% MoM and -0.3% YoY.
- With prices declining, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be -0.7% MoM, revised down from the initial estimate of -0.5% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in April is -0.2% MoM and 3.2% YoY which would be down from 4.1% YoY in March.
- This would be the second monthly decline in sales in the last four months.
- Most of the nowcast is a result from weak transactions data (-53 bps) while Census data (+31 bps) was a positive contributor to the forecast and foot traffic data was insignificant.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.2% MoM and -0.3% YoY.
- With prices declining, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be -0.5% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in March is finalized at 1.2% MoM (vs first estimate of +0.7% MoM) and 3.7% YoY which would be an acceleration from 3.1% YoY in February.
- This would be the strongest monthly increase in retail sales since January 2023 and would reflect consumers picking up purchasing activity ahead of US tariffs.
- Most of the nowcast is a result from strong transaction data (+81 bps) while Census data (+23 bps) and foot traffic (+13 bps) made smaller contributions.
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is -0.4% MoM and -0.2% YoY.
- With prices declining, the inflation adjusted retail sales gain would be 1.6% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in March is a strong increase of 0.7% MoM which would be the strongest increase since September 2024.
- Strong transaction data is the primary source of the nowcast with Census and foot traffic & sentiment data just behind.
- The annual increase in sales is nowcasted at 3.2% YoY which would be a slight acceleration over 3.1% YoY in February.
- The Chicago Fed nowcasts the retail & food services (ex autos) price index to be down -0.4% MoM in March which would be a -0.2% YoY decline, down from 0.4% YoY in February.
- Thus, with prices falling on the month, inflation adjusted retail sales are nowcasted at 1.1% MoM.
The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in February is confirmed at -0.7% MoM, but the annual rate forecast was downgraded -0.2 ppts to 2.3% YoY.
- Transaction data accounts for almost all of the nowcasted contraction at -0.59 ppts with foot traffic & sentiment data making a smaller contribution of -0.19 ppts.
- The nowcasted price index for retail & food services (ex autos) is confirmed at 0.1% MoM and 0.4% YoY.
Chicago Fed CARTS: February 2025 (Preliminary)

The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth for February is -0.8% MoM with the annual rate slowing from 3.7% YoY to 2.5% YoY.
- Transaction (-0.32 ppts) and foot traffic & sentiment (-0.50 ppts) both make negative contributions to the monthly growth figure.
- The nowcasted price index for retail & food services (ex autos) is up just 0.1% MoM and 0.4% YoY in February.