CFIB Business Barometer

Data Sentiment

Source: CFIB
Source Link: https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): October 16th, 2025 7:00 AM

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Canada’s CFIB small business optimism inched up in September 2025, with the 12-month index rising 2 pts to 50.2 (back to the breakeven threshold), while the 3-month index slipped 2 pts to 44.9, highlighting continued short-term caution.
- Long-term confidence reached or exceeded 50 in seven provinces, led by New Brunswick (58.8) and PEI (55.8), while Ontario, Nova Scotia, and British Columbia remained below 50 and well under historical averages.
- Sectoral optimism improved in transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, retail, and information, arts & recreation, while most other sectors saw slight deterioration.
- Inflation indicators held steady: firms’ average price increase expectations remained at 2.7% for the next 12 months, and wage growth expectations stayed at 2.2%.
- Full-time staffing plans remained negative, with 18% of employers planning layoffs versus 12% planning to hire, pointing to a weak labour market outlook.
- Weak demand was cited by 55% of businesses as a key constraint, while distribution challenges were reported by 20%, nearly double the historical average.
- Tax and regulatory costs (67%), insurance (66%), and wage costs (66%, up from 59% in August) were the top concerns, alongside a record 36% of firms reporting struggles with capital equipment and technology costs.
Canada’s CFIB small business optimism fell in August, with the 12-month index down 3.7 pts to 47.8 and the 3-month index down 2.6 pts to 46.8, slipping back below the 50 breakeven threshold.
- Insufficient demand was cited by 49% of SMEs as the top constraint, while insurance (63%), taxes/regulation (63%), and wage costs (58%) also weighed on growth.
- Price increase expectations for the next 12 months held steady at 2.7%, and wage growth expectations were unchanged at 2.1%.
- Full-time hiring plans remained muted, with only a slight net increase in intended staffing, while part-time employment intentions stayed negative.
- Only four provinces—New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Manitoba—posted long-term optimism above 50, while most regions weakened.
- Sectoral confidence slipped broadly, with retail, manufacturing, personal services, transportation, insurance, real estate, and finance lagging, while wholesale, professional services, construction, and agriculture showed resilience.
Canada’s CFIB small business optimism improved modestly in July, with the 12-month index rising 3.4 pts to 50.9 and the 3-month index up 1.3 pts to 49.3, signaling a still-fragile outlook.
- Price increase expectations for the next 12 months fell to 2.7% in July from 2.9% June, matching January 2025 levels.
- Wage growth expectations for the next 12 months edged down to 2.1% in July from 2.2% in June.
- Hiring intentions remained weak, with more businesses planning layoffs than hiring (a net 4% are reducing staff vs adding staff).
- Insufficient demand was the top constraint, driven by tariffs and broader economic uncertainty.
- Only 6 sectors had long-term optimism above 50; agriculture and finance/real estate were the weakest at 39.0.
- British Columbia was the only province where long-term optimism declined; Alberta and Quebec hovered around 55.
Canada’s CFIB small business optimism indexes continued to recover in June, with the 12-month index rising 7.1 pts to 47.3 and the 3-month index up 5.1 pts to 47.7, though both remain below the neutral 50 level.
- Average price increase expectations held steady at 2.9%, while wage growth plans remained at 2.2%.
- Hiring intentions stayed subdued, with little change in full-time or part-time staffing plans.
- Insufficient demand was cited by 51% of SMEs as the top barrier to expansion, followed by tax/regulatory (65%), wage (63%), and insurance (63%) costs.
- Only Prince Edward Island and British Columbia posted long-term confidence levels above 50; other provinces remained below.
- Sectorally, professional and personal services exceeded 50, while information, arts/recreation, wholesale, and agriculture remained under 40.
Canada’s CFIB small business optimism indexes edged higher in May, with the 12-month index rising 5.3 pts to 40.0 and the 3-month index up 1.9 pts to 42.4, though both remain well below the neutral 50 level.
- The average price increase expectation fell below 3%, down to 2.9%, while wage growth plans were steady at 2.1%.
- Hiring plans remain subdued: only 14% of firms plan to hire and 16% expect layoffs in the next 12 months.
- Sectorally, manufacturing and hospitality saw the largest confidence gains, while health, education, and professional services were the least pessimistic.
- Insufficient demand remains the top challenge (59%), though pressure from fuel and wage costs eased slightly; taxes and insurance remain elevated constraints.
- SMEs focused on international trade continue to report significantly lower optimism than those operating only within Canada.
Canada’s CFIB small business optimism indexes bounced slightly in April, with the 12-month index rising 9.3 pts to 34.8 and the 3-month index up 8.3 pts to 40.1, though both remain well below average and near pandemic-era lows.
- Average price increase expectations stayed elevated at 3.5% (down slightly from 3.4% in March), while wage growth plans returned to 2.2%.
- Full-time staffing plans recovered slightly also in April, but they are well below normal for this time of the year. Currently, 14% of firms are planning to hire and 17% are estimating layoffs for the next 12 months.
- Tariff pressures worsened, with 70% of SMEs reporting negative impacts already. About one fifth indicate no impacts yet, while 7% are unsure about the impacts.
- As seen in March, optimism among SMEs trading internationally is significantly lower than that of firms dealing only in Canada.
- Confidence improved slightly in retail, hospitality, and construction but declined further in agriculture and wholesale.
- Top constraints remain insufficient demand (55%), input product costs (45%), and equipment/tech costs (34%).
Canada’s CFIB small business confidence indexes crashed in March with the short-term 3-month index down -16.1 pts to 31.2, and the longer-term 12-month index down -24.8 pts to just 25.0.
- CFIB: “The small business confidence indicator reached a lower mark than it did during the 2020 pandemic, 2008 financial crisis or 9/11. The tariffs, counter-tariffs and threats of additional tariffs are taking a significant toll on business optimism. Optimism among firms trading internationally dropped severely this month.”
- Hospitality, manufacturing, transportation and agriculture are at the very bottom of the optimism scale with indexes below 20 or just a tad shy above.
- The future price plans index, tracking how much average prices are expected to change in the next year, jumped to 3.7% in March from 2.1% in February. Wage growth expectations fell to the lowest since 2021 as employment prospects weakened significantly.
The CFIB Business Barometer’s 12-month Small Business Confidence Index fell -5 pts to 49.5, and the 3-month Small Business Confidence Index fell -2.0 pts to 46.8.
- Both indexes haven fallen below the long-term averages as a result of the threat of US tariffs on Canadian exports.
- Optimism among importing SMEs dropped slightly since September (-5.6 pts). In comparison, confidence among exporting small businesses fell significantly (-23.3 pts).
- The average price increase indicator rose to 3.1%, marking the highest level since April 2024. The average wage increase planned for the next 12 months decreased slightly to 2.2%.
CFIB Business Barometer: January 2025

The CFIB Business Barometer dropped -1.8 pts to 54.6 in January, while the index tracking the short-term outlook increased 2.7 pts to 49.2. The U.S. tariff threats essentially reversed the upwards pattern seen until November and triggered a 5-point decrease in long-term optimism since. Confidence among exporting small businesses fell significantly since this November (-8.1 points). Optimism among importing SMEs also dropped several points (-3.3 points).

The sectoral outlook is more consistent. The majority of sectors are registering declines in optimism. The only sectors bucking this trend are retail (+6.9 points), health and education (+5.2 points), transportation (+4.2 points), and hospitality (+1.5 points). Nonetheless, these gains only brought the sectors close or just-above their historical averages, showing that they are not indicators of sustained growth.
The CFIB Business Barometer dropped -3.4 pts to 56.4 in December, while the short-term outlook fell -4.7 pts to 46.6, as multiple headwinds create uncertainty for small businesses. Supply chain pressures intensifying with inventory levels down -7.0 pts and distribution constraints up 5.0 pts, suggesting potential bottlenecks heading into 2025.

Manufacturing and construction maintaining strong optimism (above 60) despite looming U.S. tariff threats, though sustainability of this optimism remains questionable. Labor market showing concerning signs with more businesses planning layoffs (17%) than hiring (15%), while wage growth moderated to 2.2%. Cost pressures remain significant with 68% of businesses citing tax/regulatory burden as main constraint, followed by wage (65%) and insurance costs (65%).