Latest Updates

• Private sector anticipates broad-based contraction through October - CBI Growth Indicator 2025-07-30 04:30
  

  Firms across the private sector expect activity to fall in the next three months (weighted balance of -18%), extending a run of negative sentiment that began in late 2024, according to the CBI’s latest Growth Indicator.

  

  The downturn is expected to be broad-based, with business volumes in the services sector set to decline (-19%), driven by weaker expectations in business & professional services (-16%) and a continually negative outlook in consumer services (-28%). A sizeable fall is also anticipated in distribution sales (-28%), while manufacturing output is expected to dip modestly (-6%).

  The weak outlook follows a sharp fall in activity in the three months to July (-29%). Most sub-sectors reported falling activity, while manufacturing output was stagnant.

  Alpesh Paleja, CBI Deputy Chief Economist, said:

  • “Firms continue to face testing conditions, with expectations pointing to another quarter of falling activity across the economy. While not worsening, the persistently negative outlook underlines the fragility of demand conditions.
  • “Against this backdrop, businesses continue to cite headwinds from adjusting to higher employment costs, energy prices and continued uncertainty from a volatile global environment. With few signs of recovery on the horizon, firms are focused on managing costs and streamlining processes in what looks set to be a subdued second half of the year
  • “Building positive business sentiment will require the government to translate its long-term strategic thinking into short-term delivery progress. The government must work collaboratively with business in the lead up to this year’s Autumn Budget: acknowledging the significant burdens that firms are facing and mitigating the damaging impact on sentiment from continued fiscal uncertainty.
  • “Detailing how the government will deliver its action plan to tackle regulatory barriers to growth; positioning businesses to invest in the people they need through a flexible Growth and Skills Levy; and finding an appropriate landing zone for the Employment Rights Bill are positive next steps the government should be prioritising to build confidence in its growth mission.”

  Source
• Private sector growth expectations remain weak - CBI Growth Indicator June 2025 2025-06-30 04:30
  

  Private sector companies expect activity to fall at a firm pace in the three months to September (weighted balance of -18%), according to the CBI’s latest Growth Indicator. Expectations are less negative relative to May, but extend a period of pessimism that began late last year.

  

  Business volumes in the services sector are anticipated to decline (-14%), driven by expected falls in both business & professional services (-10%) and consumer services (-31%) volumes. Distribution sales are expected to fall in the three months to September (-40%, the weakest expectations since September 2022), while manufacturers expect output to fall only slightly (-5%).

  The negative outlook comes as private sector activity fell again in the three months to June, at the same pace as in May (-26%). The decline in activity was broad-based across all sectors.

  Source
• Private sector outlook weakest since 2022 - CBI Growth Indicator 2025-06-02 04:30
  

  Private sector firms once again expect activity to fall in the three months to August (weighted balance of -30%), according to the CBI's latest Growth Indicator. Expectations have deteriorated further, and are now at their weakest since September 2022.

  

  Business volumes in the services sector are expected to decline (-32%), with expectations at their weakest since November 2022. The anticipated fall is driven by predictions of decline in both business & professional services (-29%) and consumer services (-43%) volumes. Distribution sales are also expected to fall in the three months to August (-39%, also the weakest expectations since September 2022), alongside manufacturing output (-14%).

  The negative outlook comes as private sector activity fell again in the three months to May (-26%, from -19% in April). The decline in activity was broad-based across all sectors.

  Source
• Private sector expects activity to continue declining - CBI Growth Indicator - April 2025 2025-04-30 04:30
  

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• Private sector activity expected to decline through second quarter - CBI Growth Indicator March 2025 2025-03-28 04:30

  
• Private sector activity expected to fall for fourth consecutive quarter - Growth Indicator February 2025 2025-03-03 04:30

  
• Private sector expects activity to fall again - Growth Indicator January 2025 2025-01-27 04:30

  
• Private sector expects steep decline in activity into 2025 - Growth Indicator December 2024 2024-12-23 04:30

  
• Private sector expects activity to fall in the next three months - Growth Indicator November 2024 2024-12-02 04:30