CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Data Macro

Source: CBI Economics
Source Link: https://www.cbi.org.uk/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): September 26th, 2025 6:00 AM

Latest Updates

UK retail sales volumes declined for the eleventh straight month in August, with the CBI Distributive Trades Survey showing a net balance of -32% (vs -34% in July), though the pace of contraction is expected to ease in September.
- Sales for the time of year were judged “poor” at -19% (vs -10% in July), and are projected to remain weak in September (-20%).
- Retail sentiment stayed negative, though less severe, with business expectations at -10% for the next quarter (vs -29% in May).
- Employment continued to fall at -14% (vs -15% in May), with headcount cuts expected to accelerate to -19% in September.
- Selling prices rose sharply at +65% (vs +35% in May), the fastest pace since Nov 2023, but growth is expected to ease in September (+43%).
- Orders to suppliers fell sharply at -40% (vs -21% in July), with another steep decline expected in September (-32%).
- Online sales were flat at +3% (vs +4% in July) but are set to contract heavily next month (-35%).
- Wholesale sales declined -25% (vs -32% in July) and are expected to fall steadily again in September (-26%).
- Motor trades sales contracted at a slower -30% (vs -70% in July), with the same pace projected for September.
- Stocks relative to expected demand strengthened to +23% (vs +12% in July; avg +17%), though are seen easing next month (+16%).
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UK retail sales volumes fell for the tenth consecutive month in July, with the CBI Distributive Trades Survey showing a net balance of -34%, easing from -46% in June, though sales remain weak amid economic uncertainty and high labor costs.
- Retailers expect sales to continue declining in August (-31%), while seasonal sales assessments worsened again (-36% expected vs -10% in July).
- Retail orders from suppliers fell -21% YoY in July (vs -51% in June) and are expected to contract -16% in August.
- Online sales rose +4% YoY in July, the third straight month of modest growth, with the same pace expected in August.
- Motor trade sales plunged -77% YoY in July (vs -37% in June), the worst reading since June 2020; another sharp drop (-57%) is expected next month.
- Total distribution sales (retail, wholesale, motor trades) fell -39% YoY in July and are projected to decline -34% YoY in August.
- Retail stock volumes in relation to expected demand dipped below the long-run average in July (+12% from +26% in June; long-run average +17%) and are set to remain at a broadly similar position next month (+10%).
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UK retail sales volumes fell sharply in June, with the CBI Distributive Trades Survey showing a net balance of -46%, down from -27% in May, marking the ninth straight month of contraction and one of the lowest in the last 5 years.
- Retailers expect sales to worsen in July (-49%), and sales for the time of year were rated as poor (-37% in June, -38% expected in July).
- Retail orders from suppliers dropped to -51%, the steepest decline since December 2023; orders are expected to fall -53% in July.
- Online sales growth slowed to +6% (from +37%) and is expected to inch up to +8% in July.
- Total distribution sales (retail, wholesale, motor trades) fell -39% YoY in June; July forecast at -42%, around the lowest in the last 5 years.
- Retail stock levels relative to expected demand rose to +26% (from +12%), exceeding the long-run average of +17%.
- Retail orders placed upon suppliers declined in the year to June at the fastest pace since December 2023 (-51% from -41% in May). Retailers anticipate orders will fall at a broadly similar rate next month (-53%).
- Retail stock volumes in relation to expected demand rose in June (+26% from +12% in May; long-run average of +17%) and are set to remain elevated in July (+27%).
- Motor trade sales volumes contracted in the year to June (-37% from -65% in May). The decline in sales is anticipated to continue in July (-34%).
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The CBI Distributive Trades Survey showed retail sentiment fell at the sharpest rate in five years in May, with the retail sales volumes index dropping to -27% (from -8% in April) and expected to worsen further to -37% in June.
- Sentiment amongst retailers plummeted in May at the sharpest rate in five years, with a net balance of firms expecting their business situation to worsen over the coming quarter (-29% in May, down from -19% in February).
- Retail employment declined with the index at -15% in May and is expected to fall faster in June (-20%), while investment plans remained deeply negative at -47% for the next 12 months.
- Total distribution sales volumes (retail, wholesale, motor trades) fell to -43% in May, matching the fastest decline since January 2021, with a slower fall expected in June (-38%).
- Online retail sales rebounded strongly to +37% in May (from -1%) after six months of stagnation, though growth is expected to slow in June (+17%).
- Retail selling price inflation picked up to +35% (from +25%), still below the long-run average of +41%, but is expected to accelerate to +57% in June.
- Motor trades saw the steepest drop among segments, falling to -65% in May, a rate expected to continue in June.
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The CBI Distributive Trades Survey’s retail sales volumes index bounced back from -41% in March to -8% in April, beating expectations of a weaker recover to -20%.
- However, the index is expected to fall back to -33% in May, indicating a still sluggish retail environment.
- Sales for the time of year were judged to be “poor” in April at -31%, but to a slightly lesser extent than in March (-36%). Retailers expect May’s sales to be even weaker with a reading of -38%.
- While retail sales volumes recovered, wholesale sales volumes weakened further to start the second quarter, with a reading of -33% in April, down form -29% in March.
- Total sales (retail, wholesale, and auto) remained in a solid contraction at -26% in April, up from -32% in March, with the index expected to fall to -29% in May.
- Retail inventories are still solidly above demand with that index at 21% in April, mostly unchanged from 20% in March.
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According to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, the UK retail sales volumes fell to -41% in March, down from -23% in February and the lowest since mid-2024, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline.
- The sales index is expected to improve to about -30% in April.
- Sales for the time of year were below seasonal norms in March (-36%), similar to February (-34%), with expectations for a similar weak month (-35%) in April.
- Online retail sales remained weak at -27% in March, following a reading of -28% in February, with an expected -26% decline next month.
- Wholesale sales volumes fell to -29% in March, accelerating from -19% in February, with a similar reading forecasted in April (-25%).
- Total distribution sales volumes (retail, wholesale, and motor trades) declined -32% YoY, following a -26% fall in February.
- Retail orders placed upon suppliers fell in the year to March at the same rapid pace as in February (-38%). Orders are expected to decline at a similar rate next month (-41%).
- Retail stock volumes in relation to expected demand were firm in March (+20% from +16% in February; long-run average +17%) but are set to soften slightly in April (+12%).
- CBI: “Annual retail sales volumes fell markedly in March and are expected to continue declining next month. Firms across the retail and wholesale sectors reported that global trade tensions and the Autumn Budget are weighing on consumer and business confidence, which is leading to reduced demand.”
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The UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey YoY sales volume index was mostly unchanged at -23% in February, up from -24% in January.
- Firms expect sales to be weaker in March with the index dropping to -30% for that month.
- Retail orders placed upon suppliers declined at a fast pace to start the year with the index at -38% in February and -43% in January). In March, orders are expected to be cut back even more with an index reading of -47%, a four year low.
- The retail sentiment index remained weak at -19%, but slightly better than the -21% reading in November 2024.
- Retail investment is expected to decline at the greatest rate since May 2019 with that index down to -56% in February from -27% in November 2024.
- Retail employment remains in a downtrend and is expected to remain weak next month with February and March readings of -13% and -15% respectively (though both are above -18% in November 2024).
- Retail sales inflation remains below its long-run average of 41% with readings of 25% in both February and March.
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The CBI Distributive Trends Survey retail sales volumes index showed a moderate decline at -15% in December, up from -18% in November but notably weak for the holiday season.

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