MTS Insights

Beige Book

Commentary Macro

Source: Federal Reserve
Source Link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/
Frequency: 8 times a year
Next Release(s): November 26th, 2025 2:00 PM

Latest Updates

Category	August 2025 Beige Book	October 2025 Beige Book	Trend
Overall Economic Activity	Most districts reported little or no change; four saw modest growth. Tariffs and uncertainty weighed on sentiment.	Economic activity was largely unchanged overall; 3 districts grew slightly, 5 were flat, 4 softened. Tariffs, weak demand, and uncertainty persisted.	↓ Slight weakening
Consumer Spending	Flat to declining overall; households squeezed by rising insurance, utility, and living costs. Auto repairs demand up; international tourism fell.	Retail spending edged lower, though EV sales rose ahead of tax credit expiry. Domestic travel steady but international tourism fell further.	↓ Decline
Manufacturing	Flat to modest declines; firms localizing supply chains and investing in automation.	Varied by district, but most reported soft demand and tariff pressures. Several noted declines in agriculture, energy, and transport.	↓ Decline
Employment	Mostly unchanged; some layoffs and attrition. Firms hesitant to hire amid weak demand and automation.	Largely stable but muted demand; layoffs and attrition up. Some hiring of temp/part-time workers. Labor shortages noted in key sectors due to immigration policy.	↓ Slight weakening
Wages	Modest to moderate growth in most districts; two flat.	Wages grew modestly to moderately across all districts, but labor cost pressures rose sharply from higher health insurance expenses.	↑ Slight acceleration
Prices	Moderate or modest price growth; tariff-related input cost pressures widespread. Some firms held prices steady due to sensitivity.	Prices rose further, led by tariffs, insurance, health care, and tech costs. Some firms absorbed costs; others passed them fully to customers.	↑ Acceleration
Residential Real Estate	Mixed; modest gains in some areas, declines in others. Data center demand strong.	Residential and commercial real estate mixed; some pickup in lending due to lower rates, but overall muted activity.	→ Similar
Construction	Flat to slightly up; data center demand a bright spot. Rising costs a constraint.	Construction mixed; commercial and residential uneven. Activity supported by lower rates and select sector strength.	→ Similar
Banking/Financial	Lending mostly steady; data centers and energy demand supported some growth.	Financial conditions mixed; some districts saw stronger business lending due to rate declines, others saw muted demand.	→ Similar / slight firming
Outlook	Mixed sentiment; many cautious due to tariffs, costs, and policy uncertainty.	Outlook varied by district; some expecting modest demand gains, others remained pessimistic. Shutdown risk noted.	→ Similar / mixed
Areas of Concern	Tariffs, high insurance costs, labor shortages from immigration policy.	Continued tariff impacts; immigration policy further constraining labor. Rising health and tech costs added pressure.	↑ Increasing concerns
Weather & Agriculture Impact	Leisure/hospitality hit by weather; agriculture steady to weak.	Agriculture, energy, and transportation down. Broader weather and policy factors weighed on activity.	↓ Broader weakness

Source

Category	July 2025 Beige Book	August 2025 Beige Book	Trend
Overall Economic Activity	Slight increase; 5 districts up, 5 flat, 2 down. Outlook neutral to slightly pessimistic.	Mostly flat; 4 districts modest growth, others little or no change. Consumer pullback noted, tariffs and uncertainty weighing. Mixed sentiment across districts.	↓ Slight weakening
Consumer Spending	Declined slightly overall; nonauto down, auto sales slowed after tariff-pull forward. Tourism mixed.	Flat to declining overall; consumers squeezed by higher insurance, utilities, and other costs. Retail/hospitality offered discounts; international tourism fell. Auto sales flat to slightly up, repairs demand strong.	↓ Decline
Manufacturing	Edged lower overall; flat in some, down in others.	Flat to modest declines; firms shifting supply chains locally, investing in automation to cut costs.	↓ Slight weakening
Employment	Very slight increase; 6 up, 3 flat, 2 down. Improved labor availability but cautious hiring.	Mostly unchanged; 1 modest decline. More layoffs and attrition noted; hiring hesitancy widespread. Some labor shortages tied to immigration constraints.	↓ Slight weakening
Wages	Modest growth overall, in line with recent trend.	Mixed: about half of districts reported modest growth, others moderate; 2 noted little or no change.	↔ Similar
Prices	Modest to moderate increases; tariff and insurance cost pressures noted.	Moderate or modest growth in most districts; some districts noted strong input costs outpacing selling prices. Firms hesitant to fully pass through increases due to price sensitivity. Tariff pressures widespread.	↑ Slight acceleration
Residential Real Estate	Mostly flat or little changed. Home sales steady.	Mixed: modest home sales gains in some districts, others flat. Commercial real estate weak except strong demand for data centers in several districts.	↔ Similar / slight shift
Construction	Slowed somewhat; rising costs a constraint in several districts.	Mixed: residential flat or up slightly; commercial real estate weak except for data centers. Construction costs still a limiting factor in multiple districts.	↔ Similar
Banking/Financial	Loan volumes up slightly; lending conditions stable.	Lending generally steady; some districts noted increased lending, supported by demand from energy and commercial construction.	↔ Similar / slight firming
Outlook	Neutral to slightly pessimistic; only 2 districts saw growth ahead.	Mixed sentiment; many districts uncertain. Some expecting modest growth, others flat or pessimistic due to tariffs, cost pressures, and policy concerns.	↔ Similar
Areas of Concern	Tariffs, insurance costs, immigration-related labor shortages.	Tariffs and high costs remain widespread concerns. Immigration labor shortages more prominent in construction. Broader uncertainty about policy direction.	↑ Increasing concerns
Weather Impact	Agriculture weak, some weather noted but limited.	Broader: weakening in leisure/hospitality tied to unusual weather. Agriculture still weak. Energy demand higher in some districts due to data centers.	↑ Broader impact noted

Source

Source
Beige Book: May 2025 2025-06-04 14:00
Source