Bank of France Monthly Business Survey

Commentary Macro

Source: Bank of France
Source Link: https://www.banque-france.fr/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): October 9th, 2025 3:00 AM

Latest Updates

Bank of France Monthly Business Survey: September 2025 2025-09-09 03:00
Bank of France Monthly Business Survey: August 2025 2025-08-11 03:00
French GDP is expected to grow around +0.1% QoQ in Q2 2025, matching Q1’s pace, as rebounds in services and select industrial sectors offset weakness in construction and energy.
- Industrial activity rebounded in June after a holiday-affected May, led by aeronautics, electronics, and agri-food; capacity utilization edged up to 74.9% (still below the 77.2% long-run average).
- Market services picked up on catch-up effects in transport, warehousing, and temp work; declines were seen in restaurants and leisure services.
- Construction activity rose in June due to a rebound in finishing work, but structural work was flat; order books remain weak and cancellations in public housing orders were noted.
- Selling prices rose slightly in industry (notably agri-food and aeronautics), were stable in services, and declined in construction; recruitment difficulties held steady at 19%.
- Business uncertainty declined in industry and construction but rose slightly in services; US tariffs were cited as a concern, particularly in agri-food, chemicals, and capital goods.
Source
French GDP is expected to grow by around 0.1% QoQ in Q2 2025, matching Q1’s pace, as gains in services offset weakness in industry and construction.
- Activity declined across all sectors in May, mainly due to the timing of public holidays; industrial capacity utilization fell to 75.0% from 75.6% in April.
- Industry was hit hardest, with sharp declines in automotive, machinery, and plastics, though agri-food and pharma saw moderate gains.
- Market services contracted modestly, with weakness in consulting, car rental, and temp work offset by strength in catering, cleaning, and car repair.
- Construction activity fell, especially in finishing work, but structural work held up due to demand in military and aerospace sectors.
- Selling prices were stable in industry and services, but fell in construction; recruitment difficulties held steady at 19%.
Source
Activity increased more than expected in industry and construction, and moderately in market services, with GDP growth estimated at +0.1% in Q1 2025, slightly lower than previously forecasted.
- Industrial activity is up for the fourth consecutive month, driven by agri-food (due to Easter timing), capital goods (computer-electronic-optical products), pharmaceuticals and automotive, while clothing, textiles and footwear are down slightly.
- The production capacity utilization rate (TUC) increased to 75.9% in April, up from 75.6% in March, but remains below the long-term average of 77.2%.
- Order books in industry remain below their long-term average, except in aeronautics where they increased, with a sharp decline in clothing-textile-footwear due to US tariff uncertainties.
- In market services, activity increased slightly, with growth in household services (accommodation and catering) and business services (publishing), but declines in temporary work and car rental.
- Construction activity is growing sharply, driven by energy renovation work and industrial building construction (aviation, energy, defence), with more favorable credit conditions.
- The monthly uncertainty indicator increased slightly in industry and services, likely reflecting the impact of international factors like customs duties.
- Activity is expected to decline in May due to holidays, with expected declines in clothing, automotive, and construction.
Source
The Bank of France maintains its forecast of Q1 2025 GDP growth at 0.2% QoQ, supported by rebounds in manufacturing and market services.
- Industrial activity rose in March for the third straight month, led by aeronautics and automotive, while computer-electronic-optical products declined.
- Capacity utilization rose slightly to 75.4% (vs. 75.2% in Feb), still below the long-term average of 77.2%.
- Market services activity rebounded moderately, with growth in information, accommodation, and catering, but declines in temporary work and car rental.
- Business leaders expect a slowdown in April across industry and construction, while services are expected to hold steady.
- Price pressures eased further, with only 10% of manufacturers raising selling prices in March—close to pre-Covid norms.
Source
The Bank of France maintains its forecast of Q1 2025 GDP growth at 0.1% to 0.2% QoQ following its March business survey.
- Industrial activity improved in February despite businesses expected there to be no growth. Manufacturers expect little change in activity in March.
- Services activity was little changed in line with expectations. Temporary work remains weakly positive, in a context of high uncertainty. Service activity is expected to see a slight bounce in March.
- In construction, activity is growing in finishing work, still driven by energy renovation, but is down in structural work. Construction activity is expected to not change much in March.
Source
The Bank of France estimates that GDP growth in Q1 2025 will be around 0.1% to 0.2%, recovering from the weak -0.1% QoQ reading in Q4 2024.
- Industrial activity picked back up in January after two months of sluggishness as the capacity utilization rate recovered from a low reading of 73.7% in December to 75.4% in January (still below the long run average).
- Services activity was expanding at a slightly faster pace in January than in December.
- Industrial firms see growth remaining unchanged in February, while services firms see a slowdown coming after a good January. Construction activity is expected to be in decline again.
- The monthly uncertainty indicator increased across all three sectors and in construction, it was the highest since March 2022.
- Across all three sectors, only services reported a flare up in selling price inflation to the highest since mid-2024.
Source