Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations

Data Prices

Source: Atlanta Fed
Source Link: https://www.atlantafed.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): September 17th, 2025 11:00 AM

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The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations unchanged at 2.3% in August 2025, indicating that firms’ price outlook remains anchored.
- Sales levels and profit margins “compared to normal” improved, suggesting some recovery in current business conditions.
- Year-over-year unit cost growth held steady at 2.3%, showing no pick-up in cost pressures.
- Firms reported a median 4.0% realized price increase over the past 12 months (up from May), but expect a smaller 3.0% price increase over the next 12 months.
- A special question highlighted that firms continue to rely on a mix of domestic and imported inputs, while reported demand and revenue levels were generally higher than a year earlier.
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The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations measure fell -0.1 ppt to 2.3% in July, the lowest since February 2025.
- Sales levels and profit margins "compared to normal" declined slightly.
- Year-over-year unit cost growth remained steady at 2.3% for the third straight month.
- Large firms reported a -2.4 ppt drop in sales levels QoQ, while sales for small and medium firms were unchanged.
- Firms cited trade policy changes as a factor in 2025 price decisions.
- In our sample around 60 percent of firms have increased prices or plan to do so within the current year. This result holds true across firms of different sizes.
- We see that firms who raised or plan to raise prices feel that their competitors are doing the same thing. The inverse is also true: firms that did not raise and do not plan to raise prices do not expect others in their industry to do so, either.
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The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations measure ticked down -0.1 ppt to 2.4% in June, the lowest since February of this year.
- Sales levels and profit margins "compared to normal" increased with margin rebounding off of a 1.5 year low established in May.
- Year-over-year unit cost growth remained unchanged at 2.3%.
- Firms’ long-run (5-10 years ahead) unit cost expectations remained relatively unchanged from March 2025 at 2.8%.
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The Atlanta Fed’s measure of business inflation expectations dropped -0.3 ppts to 2.5% in May, reversing the rise seen in April.
- Sales levels rebounded slightly while profit margins "compared to normal" declined to the lowest level since December 2023.
- Year-over-year unit cost growth increased to 2.3% in May, on average, up from 2.2% in April.
- The median firm increased prices by 3.8% in the last 12 months and expect to increase prices by 4.0% in the next 12 months (the largest expected increase since December 2022.
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The Atlanta Fed’s measure of business inflation expectations increased 0.2 ppts to 2.8% in April, the highest since July 2023.
- Sales levels and profit margins "compared to normal" both decreased.
- Year-over-year unit cost growth decreased to 2.2% in April, on average, down from 2.4% in March.
- Based on current levels of demand for your main good or service, how much of that cost increase would your firm be able to pass through to consumers?
- The distribution of firm’s concerns (left) about a recession is skewed right, with about 25 percent of firms in our sample reporting that they have significant concern about a recession in the next 12 months. A little under 10 percent already believe the US is in a recession, more than reported no concern. This has changed significantly from what firms reported to the same question in September 2024
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The Atlanta Fed’s measure of business inflation expectations increased again in March, up 0.2 ppts to 2.5%, the highest since November 2023.
- Firms’ unit cost growth over the last year increased 0.2 ppts to 2.4%.
- Despite an increase in cost growth, firms judged sales levels and profit margins to be slightly better in March than February.
- A special quarterly question on annual unit cost growth over the next 5-10 years saw long-term inflation expectations rise 0.2 ppts to 2.8% YoY in March 2025 (Q1 2025), the highest since June 2024 (Q1 2024).
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Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 2.2% in January to 2.3% in February, the highest since July 2024.
- The median YoY change in unit costs dropped to 2.2% YoY, down from 2.4% YoY and the lowest since March 2021.
- Firms reported a median 4.0% price increase over the past 12 months and a median 3.0% expected price increase over the next 12 months.
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The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey reports firms’ year ahead inflation expectations at 2.2% in January, up from 2.0% in December.

Firms reported cost growth in the last year at 2.4% YoY, the lowest since April 2021.

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