ADP National Employment Report

Data Employment

Source: ADP
Source Link: https://adpemploymentreport.com/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): December 3rd, 2025 8:15 AM

Latest Updates

The ADP National Employment Report estimates that broad private sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, beating expectations of a 25,000 increase and pointing to a rebound in hiring after weak readings in August and September. Additionally, the drop in employment in September was revised up slightly by about 3,000 to -29,000, a positive development mostly in that there wasn’t a major downward revision (which has been a feature of recent BLS reports). Most notably, the momentum from employment growth has clearly fallen away. The 3-month moving average has fallen further to just 3,300 from around 20,000 to 30,000 over the summer.

The private sector job gains continue to be fueled by strength in the service sector, while the goods sector sees little to no employment growth. In October, the service sector added 33,000 jobs, while the remaining increase of 9,000 was seen in the goods sector. The individual industries that stood out were trade, transport & utilities (+47,000), education & health services (+26,000), and finance (+11,000). There continues to be a softening in the business services and information industries, which may be a result of trends in AI innovation. Business services, specifically, has seen a -28,000 drop in employment in just the last two months. Another result worth mentioning is another small decline in manufacturing of -3,000 in October, after a -2,000 decline in September, suggesting that tariffs have still not provided a boost to manufacturing employment in the few months they have been implemented.

The segmentation of the employment gains by firm size was also very interesting in October. Large firms with 500 or more employees accounted for all of the employment growth during the month, adding 73,000. This increase was offset by declines in small- and medium-sized firms where employment fell -10,000 and -21,000, respectively. A similar trend was evident in the September data, where large firms added 33,000 and small- and mid-sized firms lost -60,000. These recent data points indicate that current economic conditions are disproportionately affecting firms more exposed to cyclical swings, implying that rate cuts could help stabilize labor market conditions.

ADP also provides an update on wage growth, but for October, this was less interesting. Specifically, it reported that annual pay growth for employees who changed their jobs and those who stayed at their jobs were both unchanged from the September readings of 6.7% YoY and 4.5% YoY, respectively. In general, wage growth has trended around these levels for the entirety of the year after declining more significantly in 2023 and 2024. The BLS data of average hourly earnings shows a similar trend with wage growth sticky around 3.6-3.8% YoY.

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Private sector employment fell -32k in September 2025, well below expectations of a 50k increase and the largest decline since March 2023.
- ADP released revisions that removed 60k jobs from the previous two months: July revised down -2k to +104k, August revised down -57k to -3k.
- Goods-producing industries lost -3k jobs, as gains in natural resources/mining (+4k) were offset by declines in construction (-5k) and manufacturing (-2k).
- Service-providing industries shed -28k jobs, with professional/business services (-13k), leisure/hospitality (-19k), and other services (-16k) leading the losses, while education/health services added +33k.
- By region, the Midwest saw the steepest decline at -63k jobs, while the Northeast added +21k, the West +15k, and the South +3k.
- Small establishments lost -40k jobs and medium-sized firms -20k, while large firms added +33k, showing resilience among the biggest employers.
- Job-stayers’ annual pay rose +4.5% YoY, broadly stable, with growth strongest in manufacturing (+4.7%) and large firms (+4.8%).
- Job-changers saw slower pay growth at +6.6% YoY, down from +7.1% in August, led by softer gains in leisure/hospitality and financial activities.
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Employment

The ADP employment data released today gives us a preview of what private payroll growth might look like tomorrow in the BLS employment situation report. The headline private payroll employment gain, based on ADP’s data, is just 54,000 for August, slower than the 106,000 added in July (revised up from the initial report of 104,000) and below expectations of a gain of 65,000. However, August job gains did outpace the weaker May and June readings which resulted in an increase in the 3-month trend from 37,000 in July to 46,000. So while the number does look soft compared to the forecast and the July gain, August hiring appears to have been more solid than what we saw at the end of Q2.

Job growth was seen in both the goods and services sectors with some divergence across industries.
- The private goods sector added 13,000 jobs, the weakest since the sector saw employment decline in May. Within the sector, an increase of 16,000 construction jobs led the way while natural resources & mining added just 4,000 and manufacturing was down -7,000. It is notable that the construction industry saw another decent month of job gains (+15,000 in July) since it is known as a cyclically sensitive segment of the economy.
- The private services sector added 42,000 jobs, continuing to be the primary source of employment growth in the private sector. However, many services industries reported a weak month, and the overall service sector increase in payrolls was driven by one strong industry. That industry was leisure & hospitality which saw an increase of 50,000 jobs in August, building on strength that it saw earlier in the summer (July: +46,000, June: +32,000). Outside of that industry, smaller gains in information (+7,000) and professional services (+15,000) were offset by declines in trade, transport & utilities (-17,000), education & health (-12,000), and financial activities (-2,000).
Another positive takeaway from the data release this morning is that the growth in private employment was seen across all firm sizes. Mid-sized firms saw the strongest growth at 25,000, but large and small firms were not far behind with gains of 18,000 and 12,000, respectively. Even though it was the weakest, the growth in small business employment is notable because, like construction employment, it is cyclically sensitive. Thus, we don’t have to worry about a leading signal flashing red. Though it is worth noting that small business employment is actually slightly down over the last month since it dropped -47,000 in June, offsetting the 24,000 small business jobs added in August and July.

Pay Growth

The other component of the ADP National Employment Report is ADP’s measures of pay growth. Over the last two years, the measures have been mostly stable and very slightly decreasing. The August data did not show a divergence. Annual pay growth for “job changers” remained unchanged at 7.1%, remaining stubbornly high so far this year. Annual pay growth for “job stayers” ticked down to 4.4%, another signal of a slow deceleration in compensation. It is worth noting that ADP’s pay growth measures are very new, with data only going back to 2020. So it’s hard to tell how these readings compared to pre-pandemic periods. If there is anything to take away from this data, it’s that in the near-term there hasn’t been any major changes in employee compensation which is consistent with the stickiness we have seen in the BLS’s average hourly earnings data.
Source
According to ADP, US private sector employment increased by 104k in July 2025, with services leading the gains.
- Goods-producing jobs rose +31k, including +15k in construction, +9k in mining, and +7k in manufacturing.
- Service-providing jobs increased +74k, led by leisure/hospitality (+46k) and financial activities (+28k), while education/health services declined -38k.
- By region, the West added +75k jobs, the South +43k, the Midwest +18k, while the Northeast lost -18k.
- Large and medium-sized firms each added +46k jobs; small businesses added just +12k.
- Job-stayer pay rose 4.4% YoY, while job-changer pay was up 7.0% YoY, both unchanged from June..
Source
US private sector employment declined by -33k (vs 99k expected) in June 2025, the first net job loss in over a year, driven by large declines in professional/business services and education/health, despite gains in manufacturing and leisure/hospitality.
- Goods-producing jobs rose by +32k, with manufacturing up +15k, construction +9k, and mining +8k.
- Service-providing sectors shed -66k jobs, including -56k in professional/business services and -52k in education/health; leisure/hospitality added +32k.
- Small firms (-47k) and medium firms (-15k) cut jobs, while large firms (+30k) added workers.
- Regionally, the South added +13k jobs while the Midwest (-24k), West (-20k), and Northeast (-3k) all posted declines.
- Job-stayer pay growth eased slightly to 4.4% YoY in June from 4.5% in May, while job-changer pay growth dipped to 6.8% YoY from 7.0%.
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ADP reports that the private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, the weakest monthly gain since March 2023 and well below April’s revised 60,000 gain.
- Goods-producing jobs declined -2,000, with manufacturing down -3,000 and mining down -5,000.
- Service-providing sectors added 36,000 jobs, led by leisure/hospitality (+38k), but business services (-17k) and education/health (-13k) saw sharp declines.
- Medium-sized firms (50–249 employees) added 51,000 jobs, while small (-13k) and large (-3k) firms shed jobs.
- Regionally, the West added 37k jobs, while the Northeast lost -19k.
- Job-stayer wage growth held steady at 4.5% YoY, while job-changer pay growth was unchanged at 7.0% YoY.
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ADP reports that the private sector added 62k jobs in April, below expectations of 108k added.
- The goods and services sector both added jobs, up 26k and 34k, respectively. Leisure & hospitality saw the largest gain at 27k.
- ADP estimates only 4k manufacturing jobs were added in April.
- Small and large businesses added 11k and 12k, respectively. Both trailed the job growth by mid-sized businesses at 40k.
- The March employment gain was revised down -8k to 147k.
ADP wage growth ticked up for job changers but declined for those staying at their jobs.
- Job changer annual wage growth increased to 6.9% YoY in April, up from 6.7% YoY in March.
- Job stayer annual wage growth eased to 4.5% YoY in April, down from 4.6% YoY in March.
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The ADP National Employment Report saw US private employment up 155,000 in March, above expectations of a 105,000 increase and above the 84,000 February rate (revised up from 77,000). The beat and improvement over February is a solid signal that labor demand in the private sector remains strong in the face of uncertainty. ADP chief economist echoed this sentiment, saying “Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors.” Despite that, the 3-month average fell for the fourth month in a row to 142,000 (from 149,000 previously).

Here are some of the key details of the report:
- The service sector continued to be the leader with 132,000 jobs added in March, while the goods sector added 24,000. The leading industry was professional & business services, adding 57,000 jobs, followed by financial activities, adding 38,000.
- The manufacturing industry was the largest gainer within the goods sector, adding 21,000 jobs in March. This is the largest increase in manufacturing since October 2022 when COVID job losses were being reversed. With this increase in March, the first two full months of Trump’s presidency have produced manufacturing job gains above the 2018-2019 average of 12,500 (the manufacturing industry added 15,000 jobs in February).
- Job gains by firm size were pretty even across the categories. Large firms with 500+ employees added the most at 59,000, but that was followed closely by medium-sized firms adding 43,000 and small firms adding 52,000. It is especially goods news to see that small businesses added jobs in March as there was no small business employment growth in February according to ADP.
The ADP pay growth data provided further evidence that the pressures from elevated wage growth are gradually easing.
- The key job changers annual pay growth measure eased to 6.5% YoY in March, down from 6.8% YoY in February. This is the lowest in over four years. The job stayers annual pay growth measure also fell, down to 4.6% YoY in March from 4.7% YoY in February. This measure has been in the 4.5 to 5.0% range since March 2024.
- While annual rates have decelerated, Q1 2025 saw a slight pickup in sequential wage growth. Specifically, job changer pay growth in Q1 2025 over Q4 2024 was 1.6% QoQ, up from the 1.4% QoQ in Q4 2024 over Q3 2024. Similarly, job stayer pay growth was up 0.7% QoQ in Q1 2025 and only up 0.1% QoQ in Q4 2024.
- As the quit rate declines, we should continue to see job changers’ wage growth moderate, but a strong and stable labor market is likely to keep job stayers’ wage growth at a moderate pace. ADP notes that the gap between the two categories was just 1.9 ppts in March, the lowest since last September and the joint-lowest since records began in 2020.
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ADP reports that the private sector added 77k jobs in February, below expectations of a 140k increase and the smalling increase since July 2024.
- The goods sector added 42k jobs including 26k in the construction industry and 18k in the manufacturing industry.
- The services sector added 36k jobs led by leisure & hospitality up 41k and business services up 27k. These were offset by job losses of -33k in trade & transport and -28k in education & health services.
- Small businesses fell -12k while mid- and large-sized firms added 83k.
ADP wage growth was broadly unchanged in February.
- Job changers wage growth eased from 6.8% YoY to 6.7% YoY, the lowest since October 2024
- Job stayer wage growth was unchanged at 4.7% YoY.
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ADP private sector employment increased by 183k in January, beating expectations of an 150k increase.
- The services sector added all of the jobs with an increase of 190k while the goods sector lost -6k jobs. Trade & transportation (+56k) and leisure & hospitality (+54k) increased the most within the services sector.
- Medium and large firms were the primary sources of job growth at 92k and 69k respectively. Small businesses added 39k jobs which is still solid.
- The December employment gain was revised up from 122k to 176k.
Annual pay growth was mostly stable from December to January.
- Job changer annual pay growth eased slightly from 6.9% YoY to 6.8% YoY.
- Job stayer annual pay growth increased slightly from 4.6% YoY to 4.7% YoY.National Employment: June 2025 (1)
Source
The ADP National Employment Report showed private employment up 122,000 in December, just missing expectations of a 140,000 increase. Small businesses added just 5,000 jobs, and mid-sized firms also saw slow hiring at just 9,000. Large firms added almost all of the jobs at 97,000. The goods sector added 10,000 jobs while the services sector added the rest of the 110,000 jobs, led by a 57,000 increase in education and health services employment.

With slower hiring growth came slightly slower wage growth, the YoY increase in annual pay for job changers fell from 7.2% YoY to 7.1% YoY in December, and for job stayers fell from 4.8% YoY to 4.6% YoY. The deceleration in job stayers annual pay growth puts it at the lowest rate since July 2021

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ADP National Employment Report

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Employment

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