AAR Rail Industry Overview

Commentary Transportation

Source: Association of American Railroads
Source Link: https://www.aar.org/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): December 5th, 2025 11:00 AM

Latest Updates

The AAR Freight Rail Index fell -1.4% MoM in October 2025 and -1.5% YoY, marking its sixth decline in seven months and reflecting a continued slowdown in underlying freight demand tied to industrial production and consumer goods flows.
- Grain: Weekly carloads averaged 22,996 (-1.5% YoY) but were the highest since October 2024; YTD volumes were up +5.1%, the most since 2021.
- Coal: Carloads averaged 57,375 (-2.9% YoY), the lowest October level since records began in 1988, though YTD volumes were still +3.5%, supported by earlier gains despite lower natural gas prices constraining coal-fired generation.
- Ex-Coal: Carloads excluding coal rose +1.0% YoY, their seventh increase in eight months and 19th in 21 months; YTD volumes were +1.3%, the highest since 2019.
- Chemicals: Carloads rose +1.8% YoY to an October record of 32,172 per week; YTD volumes reached a record 1.45M (+1.6%), underscoring resilient demand despite weaker manufacturing activity.
- Primary Metal Products: Carloads increased +4.4% YoY, their eighth straight gain; YTD volumes were +3.7%, closely tracking higher domestic steel output (+4.6% YTD through September).
- Iron & Steel Scrap: Volumes rose +13.5% YoY, also the eighth consecutive increase; YTD levels were +9.9%, the highest since 2011.
- Industrial Products: The combined category rose +1.2% YoY, marking a sixth straight gain, supported by growth in chemicals and crushed stone that offset weaker autos and ores.
- Grain Mill Products: Weekly carloads averaged 10,427 (+4.3% YTD), the highest on record, driven by strong soybean cake and meal shipments.
- Overall, the data show continued strength in industrial-linked shipments such as chemicals and metals, offset by weakness in coal and modest declines in total freight activity.
Source
The AAR Freight Rail Index fell -0.8% MoM in September 2025, its fifth decline in six months, and was -1.0% YoY, reflecting gradual rather than sharp weakness in overall rail activity.
- Grain: Carloads averaged 20,966 per week (+3.5% YoY), bringing year-to-date volumes up +6.0%, the highest since 2021.
- Coal: Shipments fell -3.8% YoY, the first drop in seven months, though year-to-date volumes remained +4.4% higher than 2024, aided by a rebound from last year’s export disruptions.
- Excluding Coal: Total carloads declined -0.2% YoY, ending a six-month growth streak, but remained +1.4% YTD and the highest since 2019.
- Chemicals: Volumes dipped -0.7% YoY, only the second decline in 25 months, while YTD carloads reached a record 1.29 million (+1.5%).
- Primary Metals: Shipments rose +2.3% YoY, their seventh consecutive increase; iron and steel scrap surged +18.4% YoY, with YTD scrap volumes up +9.4%, the most since 2011.
- Industrial Products: The combined category (chemicals, paper, autos, steel, ores, and minerals) edged up +0.1% YoY, marking a fifth straight gain and underscoring steady industrial sector resilience despite wider manufacturing softness.
Source
The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), which measures seasonally adjusted month-to-month rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain, fell -0.5% MoM in August 2025 from July 2025, its fourth decline in the past five months. Still, the index remains relatively strong: since 2008, it’s been higher than it was in August less than 15% of the time.

Source
The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI) measures seasonally adjusted rail volumes excluding coal and grain. The index rose 4.0% from June 2025 to July 2025, its first increase in four months, returning the index to its highest point in four months.

Source
The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), a gauge of seasonally adjusted rail volumes excluding coal and grain, fell -0.5% MoM from May 2025 to June 2025, bringing the index to its lowest point since May 2024. June’s decline mainly reflects intermodal softness. Seasonally adjusted carloads excluding coal and grain and excluding intermodal rose 0.7% in June from May, reflecting pockets of strength for certain key rail sectors amid current economic uncertainties.

Source
The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), which excludes coal and grain, fell -3.2% MoM in May from April—the sharpest monthly decline in five months and the lowest level in a year. This dip reflects broad-based softness in economically sensitive freight, especially intermodal, and hints at challenges for consumer goods and intermediate materials traffic.

Source
The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), which tracks seasonally adjusted intermodal units plus carloads excluding coal and grain, fell -1.8% MoM in April, following a 0.7% MoM increase in March.

Source
The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), which tracks seasonally adjusted intermodal units plus carloads excluding coal and grain, rose 0.7% MoM in March, following a 1.8% MoM increase in February.
- These recent gains suggest that, despite pervasive policy-related uncertainties and continued manufacturing weakness, economic fundamentals as reflected in rail volumes remain positive.
Source
Source
Source
Source
Source