Commentary Directory
- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
US Housing Market Index: September 2023
Jacob Hess
September 18, 2023
- EconoBrief
- US
US Housing Market Index
9/18/2023 (September 2023)
45 (-5 pts)
In-line
Highlights
| Present Sales Index | 51 (-6 pts) |
| Next 6 Months Index | 49 (-6 pts) |
The NAHB Housing Market Index fell -5 pts to 45 in September, the lowest reading since April of this year. The index had experienced a slight come back over the summer, peaking at 56 in July, before giving way to an eleven point decline over the past two months. Both present and expected sales (over the next six month) saw similar declines to 51 and 49 respectively. In September, 32% of builders reported cutting home prices, compared to 25% in August. That’s the largest share of builders cutting prices since December 2022 (35%). In a special question, it was revealed that 42% of new single-family home buyers were first-time buyers on a year-to-date basis in 2023. This is significantly higher than the 27% reading from a more normalized market in 2018.
The renewed decline in the HMI is a result of mortgage rates jumping back over 7% in the last few weeks. The initial rise in interest rates had a significant impact on housing market sentiment but that was countered by the misguided view that rates would not stay elevated in the long-term. Now, it seems that there is more of a consensus that the Fed will keep borrowing costs “higher for longer” and rate cuts are not coming any time soon. The September reading at 45 is still 14 pts off of the near-term low set in December 2022 at 31, but it does seem like we could return back to that territory in the coming months, especially if the Fed hikes again. For context, that is the lowest since April 2020 and before that since June 2012. The all-time low for the HMI was set in January 2009 at 8.
© MTS Insights 2023