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UK Monthly GDP: July 2023
Jacob Hess
September 13, 2023
- EconoBrief
- UK
UK Monthly GDP
9/13/2023 (July 2023)
-0.5% MoM
Below Expectations
Highlights
| Services Output | -0.5% MoM |
| Consumer-facing Services Output | 0.0% MoM |
| Industrial Production | -0.7% MoM |
| Construction Production | -0.5% MoM |
UK GDP is estimated to have fallen -0.5% MoM in July, reversing growth of 0.5% MoM in June. All three segments made negative contributions with the services sector weighing the most on GDP growth. Specifically, services output was down -0.5% MoM. The industry that made the largest impact in July was the human health and social work industry which contracted by -2.1% MoM as strikes from medical doctors caused thousands of appointments to be cancelled. Consumer-facing services showed no growth on the month. Industrial production fell -0.7% MoM after strong growth of 1.8% MoM was recorded in June. Manufacturing production specifically fell -0.8% MoM. Nine of the thirteen subsectors saw a contraction during the month. The expansion of crude oil and natural gas production offset some of this decline causing mining and quarrying production to increase 1.9% MoM. Adding to the decline of the industrial sector was a -0.5% MoM decline in the construction sector.
The GDP decline in July was likely a result of some mean reversion after a strong June. Unfortunately, that sets the UK up for a weak start to Q3 with little reason to believe that growth can regain momentum in August and September. In the three months to July, GDP growth is still up 0.2% with a strong 0.6% increase if production. This figure is boosted by the June expansion which will fall off when results for Q3 2023 growth are reported.
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