Commentary Directory
- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
UK Employment: August 2023
Jacob Hess
September 12, 2023
- EconoBrief
- UK
UK Unemployment Rate
9/12/2023 (August 2023)
4.3% (+0.5 ppts)
Above Expectations
Highlights
| Employment Rate | 75.5% (-0.5 ppts) |
| Job Vacancies | 989,000 (-64,000) |
| Nominal Regular Pay (%YoY) | 7.8% YoY (prev 7.8% YoY) |
There were some important movements reported in the latest UK labor market update. While the total number of employees was mostly unchanged in August, there was a sizeable shift downward in the employment rate in the three months to July, specifically down -0.5 ppts to 75.5%. The employment rate is down -1.1 ppts from the pre-pandemic period in February 2020. In tandem, the unemployment rate increased 0.5 ppt to 4.3% in that same period, now above the pre-pandemic level. The total number of hours worked fell substantially over the quarter. The decline in employment levels is an overall signal of easing hiring demand. This is also seen in the continued trend of declining job vacancies. In August, vacancies fell -64,000 to 989,000 which is only 188,000 above the pre-pandemic level.
The Bank of England has its eyes on wage growth as major force driving inflation higher. In July, regular pay growth remained at the record high of 7.8% YoY in the three months to July. The month-on-month increase in regular pay was the slowest so far in 2023 at 0.5% MoM in July (very similar to June but just below) and brings the three month average down to about 0.65% which is still substantial but lower than the faster rates above 0.7% seen earlier this year. This is good news for the Bank of England but not good enough to keep it from hiking again.
© MTS Insights 2023